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#NigeriaDecides2023: Battle Shifts to the States as APC, PDP, LP, and NNPP Jostle for 27 Governorship Seats



*APC, PDP, LP, NNPP Jostle for 27 Governorship seats 

By Afolayan Adebiyi

With the teeth gnashing and most debilitating Presidential and National Assembly elections done with, leaving in its wake, huge shocks, inconsolable blabbing and threats of legal and extra-legal assaults, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) now moves to the next poll in its timetable: the States’ elections – Governorship seats and houses of Assembly.

Come March 11, INEC will rolled out its mats once again, in twenty-seven States, where governorship elections will hold. The States Houses of Assembly election will also hold in all the thirty-six States of the Federation. 

Of the twenty-seven States where the governorship election will hold, sixteen first timers Governors will be seeking  re-election, while six new faces will jostle for the coveted seats, in eleven States. noted however, that the election of a Governor of a State follows almost a similar pattern with that of the President of the Country. The Governor of a State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state’s local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

The horizon is largely unpredictable now. The colour of the Sky is not blue, nor greyish white, but rainbow. The outcome of the presidential poll cannot be used to arrive at a logical permutation of how the State elections will go. Like they say: All elections are local. Now local issues are set to determine the outcome of the State governorship and Assembly elections. Neither the conquering All Progressives Congress (APC), the fading Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or the burgeoning third force, Labour Party (LP) can assertively claim of certainty or assurance of winning in any State as things stand presently few days the commencement of voting.

At the final call on the presidential election, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu polled a total of eight million, seven hundred and ninety-four thousand, seven hundred and twenty-six (8,794,726) votes, representing 36. 61%, to emerge the winner. He was trailed by the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who polled six million, nine hundred and eighty-four thousand, five hundred and twenty (6,984,520) votes, 29.07%, to emerged the runners up. Mr. Gregory Peter Obi placed a distant third with a total votes of six million, one hundred and one thousand, five hundred and fifty-three (6,101,533) votes, 25.4%. The candidate of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) Dr Rabiu Kwankwanso polled one million four hundred and ninety-six thousand, six hundred and eighty-seven (1,496,687) votes, representing 6.23%  of the total votes, while the remaining fourteen candidates polled six hundred and forty eight thousand, four hundred and seventy-four (648,474) votes representing 2.7% of the total votes.

While the issues that dominated discussions prior to the presidential polls have since faded away with the Federal polls, ego and the need to sustain legacy and heritage are now the main focus of the governorship campaigns across the country. both the PDP and LP parties are busy gnashing their teeth, in deep sorrow, mourning their losses at the polls.

While Peter Obi, the candidate of the LP has assembled a crack team of twenty Senior Advocates to fight his battle at the Courts, Atiku Abubakar, his PDP counterpart, has taken his battle to the streets of Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, where he hoped to woo more sympathizers to his cause. His ‘Black Monday’ protest in Abuja on Monday, 6 March was planned to forced INEC to reverse the results already announced. recalled that both Atiku and Obi are claiming victories at the poll.

North West:

The North West zone was turned into tripartite battle zone by the trio of Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC, Atiku Abubakar of PDP and Rabiu Kwankwanso of NNPP. APC surprisingly won in Jigawa, Kebbi, and Zamfara states, losing Kano to NNPP and Kaduna, Sokoto and Katsina to PDP. APC currently leads in the number of Senatorial seats declared so far from the seven States by eight members to six for PDP and two for NNPP. Five seats are yet to be declared. APC also recorded the highest numbers of multiple votes from the Zone. If these factors work in the State elections coming up next Saturday, the party may been coasting home in at least five of the seven States in the zone. The loss in Sokoto, Katsina, Kebbi and Kaduna may be reversed, while NNPP may be iron cast in the race for the Government House, Kano, Kano State. 

APC’s Tinubu score a total votes of 2,653,235 to tops the zone, edging Atiku of PDP who scored 2,329,802 to the second position, while NNPP’s Kwakwanso came third with 1,175,281 votes and Obi of LP scored 350,188 to placed fourth. The zone appeared safe for the ruling APC

APC might just nick the zone again.

Sokoto State:

The out-going State Governor, Mr. Aminu Tambuwal  could not prevent the rampaging machinery of the APC to muscled him out of the contest during the presidential election. His candidate, Alhaji Atiku simply bowed to Bola Tinubu of the APC. Also two Senatorial seats were lost to the rampaging forces of the APC led by a former Governor of the State, Bafarawa. 

The Governorship will be of most interest. recalled that Tambuwal himself barely won his re-election with less than five hundred votes in 2019. But in the last presidential election, the results were also similar with APC scoring 285,444 to PDP’s 288,769. A margin of less than three thousand five hundred votes.

The results of the National Assembly are being expected as at the time of tiling this report. Expect a tense battle in the Seat of the Caliphate this time around.

Of the eighteen parties that may present candidates for the election, the battler is a straight one between Saidu Umar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Ahmed Aliyu of the All Progressive Congress (APC).

Sokoto State: Too close to call

Katsina State:

Despite the present of the out-going President, Muhammadu Buhari and the State Governor, Masari Bello, both staunch members of the APC, PDP still had a slight edge here during the presidential polls. The Emir of Katsina and Daura Emirates respectively were said to have openly expressed preference for the candidate of PDP. Also Atiku himself, harped intensely on religion and ethnic sentiments during the campaign. The PDP candidate eventually won the presidential polls with 489,045 votes to 482,283 garnered by the candidate of the APC. 

Despite his winning the presidential poll, APC won the three Senate seats on offer and the majority of the House of Representatives seats. But now, this local politics election will affirm the supremacy of the President Buhari’s tendencies in the State. Expect APC all the way.

Incumbent APC Governor Aminu Bello Masari is term-limited and cannot recontest, therefore the new candidate Umar Dikko Radda may end up picking the baton from him come May 28.

Katsina State: APC to win 

Kebbi State:

Kebbi State provided another interesting returns during the presidential election. Though an APC controlled State, but PDP edged APC with of some forty-eight thousand votes, nicking two hundred and eighty-five thousand, one hundred and seventy-five thousand to APC’s two hundred and forty eight thousand, and eighty-eight votes. PDP also carted home the two Senate seats already declared, and majority of the House of Representatives seats, thus leaving APC with a mountain to climb at the State election come next Saturday.

Incumbent APC Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu is term-limited, but strive to see his successor from within his party. The factors that aided an Atiku’s victory at the presidential polls are no longer present, hence the chance of the APC’s candidate succeeding.

PDP candidate, a former Army Major General, Aminu Bande will face a former Teachers’ Union leader, Nasir Idris of APC.

Kebbi State: Too close to call

Zamfara State:

This is traditionally an APC State. The party lost all the elective positions in 2019 to PDP via a Court of Appeal Ruling which disqualified all its candidates. But no sooner did the PDP elements found their way back into the party. But this time around, the party had learnt its lessons, re-organised its house and was revving. At the presidential and National Assembly elections, the party dusted PDP by a landslide, gathering a handsome votes of two hundred and ninety-eight thousand, three hundred and ninety-six to defeat PDP who garnered one hundred and ninety-three thousand, nine hundred and seventy-eight votes to placed second. APC also won the two Senate seats and majority of the Lower Chamber’s seats, so far declared in the State. 

APC has renominated Governor Bello Matawalle to run for a second term in Office. He have all the edge over his challenger, Dauda Lawal of PDP and others 

Zamfara State: APC all the way

Kano State:

Kano State incumbent APC Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje is term-limited and cannot seek a re-election therefore throwing up the contest open. While the omnibus Kwakwansiyya Movement is deep rooted in the State, its candidate, through the NNPP, Abba Kabir Yusuf, also a former Commissioner in the State, will be the candidate to beat in the election. The Movement has its tap root in Kano State, its feeds from the Talakawa’s School of Thought of late Mallam Aminu Kano. Dr. Rabiu Kwakwanso has so far successfully instilled the ethos of the Movements into the legions of his red caps followers. For now, Kwakwanso owns Kano and vice versa. Therefore, his party, NNPP, did not surprised anyone by posting the majority nine hundred and ninety-seven thousand, two hundred and seventy-nine votes in the presidential election. The only surprise is that he did not surpassed the million mark and also lost one of the three Senatorial seats, Kano North Senatorial seat, to the rival APC. APC pulled its weight with Governor Umar Ganduje pulling a healthy five hundred and seventeen thousand, three hundred and forty-one votes to edge PDP to a distant third with a total votes of one hundred and thirty-one thousand, seven hundred and sixteen.

NNPP also won majority of the House of Representatives seats, leaving APC to clung to the few seats.

While Alhaji Abba Kabir-Yusuf, popularly called “Abba Gida-gida”, is contesting on the platform of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP). To confront the behemoth that is NNPP’s machine in Kano State is the State’s Deputy Governor, Dr Nasiru Yusuf-Gawuna, who is the APC candidate, while Sadiq Wali is the PDP candidate, instead of Mohammed Abacha, who was earlier mentioned by the commission as the party candidate.

The trend is expected to continue during State election come Saturday.

Kano State: NNPP all the way

Jigawa State:

The only surprise here during the presidential and National Assembly polls is the paltry ninety-eight thousand two hundred and thirty-four votes NNPP garnered, and not the APC winning the State. The State was expected to key into the Kwakwansiyya Movement of the neighbouring Kano, but bluntly refused. Bola Tinubu of APC came first with four hundred and twenty thousand, three hundred and ninety votes, followed by Atiku of PDP who came second with three hundred and eighty-six thousand, five hundred and eighty-seven votes, Kwakwanso only managed a distant third with a paltry ninety-eight thousand two hundred and thirty-four votes. 

APC also corned two Senate seats to PDP’s one and majority of House of Representatives seats.

In the governorship election, the APC’s candidate, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar is well ahead of others in the race. 

Jigawa State: APC all the way

Kaduna state:

That Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El Rufai is not seeking a fresh mandate, does not mean a lesser tension in deciding who succeeds him. The polarity between the northern and southern Kaduna, Muslims and Christians in particular, will always generate tension whenever a state-wide election will hold in the State.  

El Rufai could not deliver his State for his party at the presidential election, losing to Atiku of PDP. Atiku won with 554,360 votes, with Tinubu of APC securing 399,293 votes to placed second, while Obi of LP came third with 294,494 and Kwakwanso of NNPP making the top four with 92,969 votes. PDP also cornered the three Senate seats in the State and majority of House of Representatives votes.

But the State election may be different. Atiku made the speech calling for northerners to vote for northerners in Kaduna. This might have a resonating effect. But when the governorship candidate of the party, a former member of the  House of RepresentativesIsa Ashiru go head-to-head with the candidate of APC, Uba Sani, a Senator for Kaduna Central and Jonathan Asake, also a  former member of the  House of Representatives and former president, Southern Kaduna Peoples Union, of the LP the voting pattern will change. 

Kaduna State: Too close to call

North East:

North East was expected to be the main battleground of the last presidential and National  Assembly elections. The PDP presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubaker is from Adamawa State and Senator Kassim Shetima, the running mate of the APC presidential candidate is also from Borno State. The two eventually were only able to pulled their weight in the respective States, with the remaining four states opening themselves up for fierce competition between the trio of Atiku, Tinubu and Obi respectively. 

In the run down to the presidential election, Daniel Bwala a former APC’S leader had wanted to use the zone to launched his Northern Christian Group and attack the candidates of APC on the ground of the Muslim-Muslim ticket, but the moved evaporated as soon as it was launched. Despite the noises of Bwala, Dogora, Babachair Lawal and Boss Mustapha in the North East zone, Bola Tinubu was able to secure good numbers in the region.

At the end of voting, Atiku Abubakar of PDP showed he was the home boy with 1,741,851 votes, while Tinubu came second with  a scores of  1,185,458 votes. Obi came third having scored 315,108 votes.

This zone will present an interesting scenario in the State election as the APC  ma rebound in the zone during the coming State elections.

Too close to call

 Bornu State:

The vice presidential candidate of APC was a former Governor here, and also a former Senator. He made all that count at the Federal elections where his party, APC, cruised to a comfortable win with 252,282 votes representing 54.22% of the total votes cast. Atiku of PDP came second with 190,921 votes, leaving others with no tangible votes. Senator Ali Ndume of APC from Borno North is the only Senatorial candidate so far declared, the remaining two seats have been declared inconclusive by the electoral commission, as at the time of filing this report. APC also won the majority of the House of Representatives seats from the State.

The mere presence of Governor Babagana Umara Zulum in the race may automatically reduced the chances of many of the other candidates. He is known to have performed well in the State since taken over from former Governor Kassim Shettima.  But Ali Jajari of the PDP is leaving no stone unturned in his bid to unseat the Governor.

Borno State: Expect APC to keep its flag up

Adamawa State:

Atiku Abubakar was contesting the presidential election in any form the sixth time last Saturday, and this clearly showed in his subdued comportment throughout his campaign. He campaigned very little, said very little, but like an experienced snipper, went for his targets directly, without wasting much ammunition. He directly told his audience in Kaduna not  to waste their votes on Yoruba or Igbo, since they have an home boy in him. Perhaps, this message sank in his home State of Adamawa, and few other States in the core North. 

Adamawa State perhaps responded to the cryptic cry  of their son and returned a total votes of 417,611 to enabled him defeat his main challenger, former Governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu of APC, who polled 182,881 votes to placed second. Another former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi polled 105,648 to placed third in the log. 

Atiku and his PDP however, shared the Senate seats with the APC, who grabbed one vital seat and some House of Representatives seats in the State. Now that Atiku, the home boy is out of the race, the people, may decide to swing their votes in the governorship and other State election. 

APC is parading the only female governorship candidate in the country in Adamawa State. The governorship candidate, Senator Aishatu Binani 

Passed through a lot since the start of her nomination exercise. She had the former EFCC boss, Nuhu Ribadu and a brother to the First Lady, to contend with, before she was finally confirmed by the Court. But how far can she battle the machine of the wounded Atiku Abubarkar remains to be seen. She also have the incumbent Governor, Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri of the PDP to slug it out with. With the Ribadu and others not fully supporting her, she may have an uphill task to climb. 

Adamawa State: Too close to call

Bauchi State:

Whatever the disruptive efforts of Hon. Yakubu Dogora, former Speaker, Federal House of Representatives, the results in his State was not too bad for the APC Muslin=Muslim candidate. Atiku defeated Tinubu by scoring 426,607 votes to the APC’s candidate 316,694 votes. APC also secured a Senate seat to the PDP’s two, and some House of Representatives seats.

The State governorship and House of Assembly election will not have the damaging effect of the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the presidential candidates of the APC, so expect the party to be competitive in the State.

While PDP is presenting the incumbent Governor Bala Mohammed who initially declined to run for re-election, instead running for the president. However, after losing the PDP presidential primary in May 2022, Mohammed quickly rushed down to Bauchi to pick the nomination form and was renominated in a rerun primary. On its own, the APC is presenting a former Chief of Air Staff, retired Air Marshal, Saddique Abubakar, as its governorship candidate

Bauchi State: Too close to call

Gombe State

In Gombe State, despite the presence of Governor Inuwa Yahaya of APC, could not prevent the loss of its presidential candidate in the State. Atiku of PDP defeated Tinubu of APC by scoring 319,123 votes to 146,977 votes. PDP also cornered two of the three Senate seats available in the State and majority of the House of Representatives Seats.

Incumbent APC Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya is running for a second term and was renominated by his party. Yahaya being renominated by the APC unopposed, while the PDP has a businessman Mohammed Jibrin as its flag bearer. 

Gombe State: Too close to call 

Taraba State:

Taraba State may present a more interesting scenario in the coming State election come Saturday. The three parties, APC, LP and PDP are running on almost equal strength in the State, and any one of them may emerge the winners in the governorship election. PDP pushed into the front seat in the presidential election scoring 189,017 votes to edge out LP, who scored 146,315 to place second. The APC candidate scored 135,165 to placed third in the election. And in the National Assembly election, both the PDP and APC have one Senator each, while INEC is yet to conclude the third seat.  

Religion factor will not play much role in the next election, so is the ethnic factor. So any of the three frontline parties can clinch the coveted governorship seat.

Come Saturday, the PDP candidate, Kefas Agbu will slug it out with, Joel Ikenya, of LP,  Danladi Baido of SDP and Senator Emmanuel Bwacha, of APC.

Already, rumours are flying the State that Kefas Agbu of PDP gave out fifty million naira to the Christian Association of Nigeria, (CAN), Taraba branch to endorse him. How far this will play out will be seen at the end of voting on Saturday. 

Taraba State: Too close to call

Yobe State:

Already APC with the two Senate seats so far declared here in its bag, the other one is inconclusive, may be enjoying an advantage over other parties. This is in spite of the fact that Atiku Abubakar of PDP won the presidential election with a total votes of 198,567 to Tinubu of APC who polled 151,459. Other parties are literarily non-existent here, thus leaving the race to both the PDP and APC to slug it out.

The Senate President, Ahmed Lawan is from here and he has secured a return mandate to the Upper Chamber of the National Assembly. The victory of APC at the National Assembly election may aid their cause in their push for the governorship seat and State House of Assembly seats come Saturday.

Governor Mai Mala Buni of APC is going for a second term, his main challenger, is Umar Iliya Damagum  of the PDP. Aside the incumbency factor, the popularity of the Senate President, Ahmed Lawan will be an added advantage to the Governor.

Yobe State: Too close to call

North Central:

Many analysts had expected the North Central zone to turned the heat on both the APC and PDP during the Federal elections. This is in the light of the many reported and unreported clashes between the herdsmen and farmers, the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC, and the open disdain for the continued Fulani hegemony. But this was not to be as the zone balanced out the candidates in the voting patten. 

The APC candidate, Bola Tinubu shocked the rest by outscoring them with 1,670,091 votes to win the zone. He was followed by Peter Obi who scored 1,133,840 votes to placed second, beating PDP’s Atiku to the third position with a score  of 1,087,884 votes. 

The trend may also continue in the coming Saturday’s State elections.

Expect APC to win the Zone again

Benue State

The electorates in Benue State literarily vent their anger on their Governor, Sam Ortom for a lot of reasons. He was preoccupied with the politics of his rebellious G-5 Group with the PDP to the detriment of his State. His endorsement of Peter Obi of LP for the presidential election was shunned by the electorates in favour of APC who was led by Rev Fr Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Iormem Alia. APC revved up their campaigns in the State towards the presidential election, and the results was the shocking 310,468 votes recorded by the party to beat Peter Obi of LP who score 308,372 votes to placed second. PDP came third with 130,081 votes.

More interesting, Ortom himself lost his senatorial contest to the candidate of APC. APC picked two of the three Senate seats while PDP picked the remaining one. APC also secured the majority seats in the House of Representatives. As things stand, expect Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Iormem Alia to occupy the Government House from May, 29, 2023.

Benue State: APC to maintain the streak

Nasarawa State:

The National Chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu is from Nasarawa state, so also is the incumbent State Governor, Abdullahi Sule, yet the duo could not stop Peter Obi of LP from winning the State in the presidential poll. The LP’s candidate secured the highest votes in a keenly contested election. The three parties were almost neck-to-neck in this State. Obi led with 191,361 votes followed by Tinubu who polled 172,922 votes and Atiku who polled 147,093 to placed third.

But in a twist, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) won the two Senate seats, leaving one for PDP in the State. The party also won the majority of the House of Representatives seats declared so far. How the party will sustain this tempo in the State election is what analysts are currently looking at.

 Incumbent APC Governor Abdullahi Sule is eligible to run for re-election and has been renominated by his party. Governor Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa State seeks re-election for another four years on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Meanwhile, the PDP also nominated former House of Representatives member David Ombugadu as its governorship candidate in the state. While a former Minister, Mr. Joseph Ewuga is the candidate of the LP. The three candidates shall test their electoral might some next Saturday in what promises to be an interesting electoral contest.

Nasarawa State: Undecided

Plateau State:

Plateau State is never known for following a dogmatic political concept right from the First Republic. In the First Republic, it aligned with Mr. Tarkar of Middle Belt Progressives, but in the Second Republic, the State went with NPP of Dr. Nnamdi Azikwe. In the aborted Third Republic it was the defunct SDP, while in this present dispensation, it has tasted both the PDP and APC at different times. Presently, the incumbent Governor, Simon Lalong is an APC member.

During the presidential election, Peter Obi scored a total votes of 466, 272 to defeat Bola Tinubu of APC, who polled 307, 195 to placed second with Atiku coming third with 243,808 votes.

However, in the National Assembly polls, PDP came top with two Senate seats, with the other one yet to be declared as at the time of filling this report. PDP also won the majority of the House of Representatives seats declared so far. This make the State uncertain going forward towards the State elections.

Since the incumbent APC Governor Simon Lalong is term-limited and cannot seek a re-election, his party, APC selected a former INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner for Benue State Nentawe Yilwatda, while PDP picked  Caleb Mutfwang, a former Chairman,  Mngu Local Government Council of the State. Mr. Patrick Dakum is flying the banners of the Labour Party.

With the breezy performance of LP and PDP in the State during the presidential elections,  the battle line should be drawn between the two parties, but one cannot write off the incumbent Governor, who is also the Director General (DG), of the APC Presidential Campaign Council (PCC), Simon Lalong.

Plateau State: Undecided

Niger State:

The APC won the presidential election here last week, with 575,183 votes to defeat the PDP’s candidate, Atiku who polled 284,898 votes. Obi of LP was only able to polled a miserly 80,452 votes. APC also secured two of the three Senate seats, while the other one went to the PDP. APC was also able to secured the majority seats in the House of Representatives election. This is, however, in spite of the retired General Ibrahim Babangida’s open support for the candidate of the LP.  The party, APC, is expected to continue its winning streak here during the State election.

The incumbent APC Governor Abubakar Sani Bello delivered the State to his presidential candidate in the last presidential election. He also secured two Senate seats. Although, he is term-limited and cannot seek re-election his influence will count much on the election. The APC candidate, Mohammed Umar Bago, a member of the House of Representatives representing Chanchaga Federal Constituency, while the PDP candidate is a former commissioner in the State, Isah Liman Kantigi,

Niger State: APC to continue the streak

Kwara State:

Prior to the presidential polls, the former Senate President, also a former Governor of the State, Dr. Bukola Saraki has embarked on an expansive tour of the entire State making inflammatory statements about the state of things in the country. The hope was that the people would listen to him and reverted back from the O To Ge mentality, but when the INEC rolled out the results of the polls, Saraki was further sent into political exile. He lost all the National Assembly seats and the presidential polls.

The State Governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is widely adjudged to have performed and stabilized the State from the rancorous days of Saraki and his lackeys. The 263,572 votes poled by the APC during the presidential election sent enough message to the former Senate President. Moreso, the party picked all the three Senate seats and House of Representatives seats in the State. PDP came second with 136,909 votes.

Expect Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq to continue his O To Ge revolution come Saturday. His party will still control the State House  of Assembly. His main challenger, Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi  of the PDP may find it difficult to dethrone him, even with the rumoured alliance with LP and some other parties, the incumbent seems to be a sure bet for the Government House.

Kwara State: APC all the way

Kogi State:

With the type of political operator in Kogi State, there is no doubt which party will win any local election in the State. During the presidential polls, the State Governor, Mr. Yahaya Bello, simply incapacitated his opponents’ strongholds by cutting off the main roads leading to the zone. This denied easy access to even INEC officials. He won both elections at the end of the day, producing the three Senators from the State and all the Federal House of Representatives seats.

Since there is no governorship election in the State, Bello can now focused mainly in returning all his candidates to the State House of Assembly.

But if the results of the presidential and National Assembly polls are to be used as a yardstick, Yahaya bello and his APC may be excused for an early jubilation. At the polls a handsome 240,571 votes to defeat PDP who polled 145,104 votes to come second. LP came third with 56,217 votes. APC also won all the National Assembly seats in the State. 

Expect APC all the way

South South Zone:

The nation’s south South zone always pursue different political goals during elections. The zone is neither known for any political tendency, but vote as a matter of interest. States here always swing their votes to suit the prevailing circumstances.

The Zone do not really key into the Igbo cry for the Presidency, since their son Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan had had the slot once between 2010- 2015.  At the same time, the thinking of it is the turn of the Southern part of the country does not really mean much to them. Their votes were spread across the main frontline parties during the presidential and National Assembly elections. Eventually, Peter Obi of LP out muscled the rest to clinched the first position in the zone with 1,210,673 votes, with Tinubu of APC trailing him with 799,957 votes to come second. Atiku of PDP scored 719,908 votes to placed third. 

The State elections will be a bit different. The Rivers State helmsmen that gave Tinubu 231,951 votes may withdraw much of it and give it to their governorship candidate. Also Obi too will  suffer loss of votes in the same Rivers State. Edo and Delta may re-arranged themselves and vote according to tradition, thus dumping LP. APC won two Senate seats each in the two States and may launch a strong bid for the governorship next Saturday.

South South zone is too close to call

Akwa Ibom State:

Akwa Ibom State has been voting the along with the PDP line since the turn of the present dispensation. And despite the sentiments of the Southern part of the country for the presidency to come to them, still voted for the Northerner, Atiku enmass. Atiku defeated Tinubu and Obi here by scoring 214,012 votes to the 160,620 votes Tinubu scored and 132,683 votes recorded for Peter Obi. PDP also took two of the three Senate seats, leaving only one for APC.

With the State of things in the State, the incumbent Governor, Governor Udom Gabriel Emmanuel, of PDP,  may have a former commissioner, Umo Eno as his successor. 

APC may not present any candidate for the governorship election, because INEC did not recognise its candidate over the conduct of the primary election that produced him. The party had nominated a businessman, Akanimo Udofia on 26 May in a controversial process that was not recognized by INEC. Since the APC was unable to overturn the INEC decision, before the close of nomination, the nominees of smaller parties became major contenders like former Senator John James Akpan Udo-Edehe of NNPP and Senator Bassey Albert Akpan of YPP may suddenly have a good chance of taking over the Government House.

Akwa Ibom State: PDP to maintain their streak

Cross Rivers State:

Cross Rivers State is another State that shared the sentiment of the Southern president. Although, a traditional PDP stronghold, the State voted massively for Peter Obi of LP and Bola Tinubu of APC during Federal elections. Obi of LP garnered a total votes of 179,917 to marginally, pushed Bola Tinubu of APC to the second position with  his 130,520 votes. Atiku came third with 94,425 votes. The resurgence of APC in the State is due to the influence of the Governor, who defected to the party in May 2021.

However, APC picked two of the three Senate seats in the State and majority of the House of Representatives seats declared so far.

The incumbent Governor, Ben Ayade is not contesting as he will be rounding up his second term in Office, but would be more interested in who succeed him. But his party, APC may have to work hard to produce that successor. Although, the healthy votes the party garnered at the Federal polls may by encouraging for him to push further. 

PDP candidate, Senator for Cross River Central, Sandy Ojang Onor will slug it out with former Senator for Cross River South, Bassey Otu, as the identity of the LP candidate is largely unknown. 

Rivers State: too close to call

Bayelsa State:

Bayelsa State is another State in the South that do not voted along the call for the Southern presidency. They returned Atiku of PDP as the winner with 68,818 votes, with Peter obi of LP trailing with 49,975 votes, while Bola Tinubu of APC came third with 42,572 votes.

The State is another State where the governorship election will not hold as the present Governor, Duoye Diri of PDP came in in year 2020.

Politically, the state’s early 2019 elections were categorized as the continuation of the PDP’s dominance albeit with the APC making considerable gains by gaining one senate and two House of Representatives seats. The APC also gained ground in the assembly election and Bayelsa also was the state that swung the most towards Buhari in the presidential election, although that could be chalked up to former Governor Goodluck Jonathan no longer being PDP nominee. Later in 2019, the State swing towards the APC dramatically increased as its gubernatorial nominee, David Lyon won by a large margin, but Diri was declared victor after Lyon was disqualified before the inauguration. Ensuing senate by-elections in 2020 were then easily won by the PDP, cementing the state’s potentially erratic voting record.

Bayelsa State: Undecided   

Edo State:

This is another State where the Governorship election will not hold until later in the year, probably by September. The Governor, Godwin Obaseki of PDP is already having troubles with his party, same as had with the APC that initially produced him. His support for his party’s candidate Atiku was suspect in the last presidential election. The State returned a total votes of 331,163 for Peter Obi of LP, with Bola Tinubu of APC cornering 144,471votes to placed second. Atiku polled 89,585 votes in the State to placed third in the log. 

APC, however dominated the National Assembly election with two of the three Senate seats, dropping one for the PDP. The party also won the majority of House of Representatives seats.

Edo State: Too close to call

Delta State:

The results of the Federal elections from Delta were quite a shock, and a surprise to many. Delta has always been known too be a strong PDP State, but sudden swinging towards LP is surprising, considering the fact the State Governor Dr Ifeanyi Okowa is the running mate to the PDP’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. 

In the presidential poll, LP secured 341,886 votes to beat Okowa and his candidate, Atiku who secured 161,600 votes, while Bola Tinubu of APC secured 90,183 votes to placed third.

In the National Assembly election, APC snatched two of the available three Senate seats, leaving one for PDP. 

PDP candidate for the next Saturday’s governorship election is the Speaker of the State’s House of Assembly, Sheriff Oborevwori , APC has the Senator for Delta Central, Ovie Omo-Agege to fly its flag. Although Oborevwori was initially disqualified by a Federal High Court on 7 July due to issues with his certificates, an Appeal Court overturned the ruling and reinstated him. The candidate of LP in the election Kennedy Kawhariebie Pela. The three are expected to test their political might to determine who succeeds Dr OKowa of PDP. 

Delta State: Too close to call

South East:

The forces of centrifugal and centripetal were in contention in this during the last Federal election. It was an opportunity for clamouring for a President of Igbo extraction and the many pro-Biafra forces to unite and face those who believe in the unity of the country. The results was an overwhelming endorsement of the Igbo agenda. These forces had massed in the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), before, but now they have found a comfortable home in LP. The only snag derailing the success of the forces all along remained a poor network with other zones in the country. The zone could not drive the move to the Presidency alone, and they refused to accept that fact. The few votes harvested there by both the APC and PDP were enough to further weaken the chances of their preferred candidate, Mr. Gregory Peter Obi of LP.  

However, the scenario may change in this local election as there is no Tinubu of Yoruba extraction or Atiku of Fulani extraction in the race. It is now purely Governor Soludo of the old APGA that will be fighting to stabilize his government against the marauders from the LP.

The South East will definitely present an interesting scenario come Saturday as many local tendencies, particularly from the APGA, will spring up to challenge the LP.

Anambra State:

Anambra State have done its governorship election in an off period, therefore, will not participate in the governorship election, so the huge army of Obi-dients in the State can go and rest and allow Dr. Charles Soludo to concentrate on his assignment. The 584,621 votes scored by LP in the State is healthy enough to send a message to the rest of the country. the zone is demanding for its share of the occupancy of Aso Rock Presidential Villa. Atiku came a poor second with 9,036 votes while Tinubu got a miserly 5,111 votes to place third. With these figures, LP still lost a Senate seat to the Young Progressives Party (YPP), thus winning the remaining two seats. 

Now is the time for the State House of Assembly seats contest. Governor Soludo and APGA may not lower their guards this time around. Besides, the LP are out of gas presently, so expect a tough battle between APGA and LP in Anambra State for the control of the State House of Assembly.

Anambra State: APGA may clinch it

Imo State:

Imo State is the same mix with Anambra State. The State has done its governorship election some two years ago, and now only has the state House of Assembly to contend with. The the State Governor, Hope Uzordinma, of APC, could not stop the militant band of Obi-dients from capturing his State. LP won the election with 360,495 votes, to beat APC who scored 66,406 votes, and PDP with 30,234 votes.

The Governor will strive to control the House of Assembly, hence the intense battle that may play out in the State.

Imo State: Too close to call

Abia State:

Governor Ikpeazu membership of the G-5 group of the disgruntled Governors under the PDP may not really help him after all. He has just lost the Senatorial election and his candidate in the Governorship election may be endangered by the combined forces of PDP and LP.

The LP candidate dictated the pace of the state in the just concluded presidential polls by garnering 327,095 votes, PDP came second with 22,676 votes, pushing APC to a distant third with 8,914 votes.

 Incumbent PDP Governor Okezie Ikpeazu is term-limited thus, cannot seek a re-election. The first candidate PDP put forward, Prof Uche Ikonne, died a few weeks to the election. He was quickly replaced  with Okey Ahiwe, a former Chief of Staff to Ikpeazu. APC is putting forward Ikechi Emenike its gubernatorial candidate during the governorship election in 2019. The identity of the LP candidate is yet unknown as at the time of compilation of this report.

Abia State: Too close to call

Enugu State.

Enugu State is no different from any of the remaining five South Eastern States. They shared a lot in common, especially political tendency. Therefore, the incumbent State Governor, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi could not prevent LP from picking his nose during the presidential and National Assembly elections in the State. LP massively won the presidential polls. Both LP and PDP also shared the two Senate seats declared so far in State one apiece.

LP true to permutation raced away from the chasing pack in the presidential polls, polling a grand 428,640 votes to diminished PDP and APC who polled 15,749 and 4,772 votes respectively.

With the incumbent PDP Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi already running out of his second term tenure, the party, PDP has picked a former commissioner Peter Mbah to succeed him. The APC picked a businessman Uche Nnaji, while the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) nominated former minister Frank Nweke. Mr. Chijioke Edeoga, the runner-up in the PDP primary was the LP’s candidate in the State.

Expect a straight battle between LP, APGA and PDP.

Enugu State: too close to call

Ebonyi State:

LP easily swept Ebonyi State during the presidential polls, polling two hundred and fifty-nine thousands, seven hundred and thirty eight votes representing 79.83% to defeat APC who polled only 42,402 votes representing 13.03% to place second, in spite of the efforts of Governor Dave Umahi. Atiku Abubakar scored 13,503 or 4.15% to placed third. But surprisingly enough, APC went ahead to grabbed all the three Senatorial seats, leaving none for the LP. The party all cleared majority of the House of Representatives seats.

This leaves a bibulous path for all the parties to thread in the coming State gubernatorial and Assembly election come Saturday. Would APC through the State Governor, Umahi repeats this feat and win the governorship and the House of Assembly elections? This will be determined by little details.

For the Governorship election, Mr Francis Nwifuru, Speaker of the Ebonyi House of Assembly, is the candidate of the APC, and Prof. Bernard Odoh, a former Secretary to State Government (SSG) is contesting under the platform of  (APGA). While Chief Ifeanyichukwuma Odii flies the flag of  PDP, Chief Edward Nkwegu, will contest under LP.

Ebonyi State: Undecided

South West:

South West, Yorubaland is traditional bastion of progressive politics in the country. Right from the First Republic, the people have been indoctrinated into the ideals and ideas of progressivism in political life by the late Saga, Obafemi Awolowo, a former Premier of the Zone. And each a State in the zone falls in the hands of the conservative wing, one can see the unease among the people. The recent case is that of Oyo and Osun states. 

The sudden surge of the irredentists #EndSars protesters, the Igbo braggadocio, now rearing their heads, especially in Lagos State, are clearly antithetical to what the zone stand for, politically.

In the days leading to the presidential election, the zone was in its bullish electoral mood in the weeks preceding the Federal election. The zone is enlightened, liberal and make choices freely, without religion or ethnic consideration. The zone made it clear that it is its turn to produce the President, after President Goodluck Jonathan, and President Muhammadu Buhari. The lacuna here is that the leaders who agreed on zoning of the presidency only recognized North and South, not the divisive six zones. Still Atiku from the North won in Osun State, defeating the APC candidate, Tinubu who have close ties with the State and secured the mandatory 25% of the total votes cast in Oyo State. The LP candidate, Peter Obi, on the other hand won in cosmopolitan Lagos State, although failed miserably in other States in the zone. 

At the end, Tinubu scored 2,279,407 votes to defeat Atiku  who scored 941,941 votes across the six States. Obi came third with 846,478 votes.  

Lagos State:

For the first time in its fifty six years history, Lagos State, the State of Aquatic Splendour, the acclaimed Centre of Excellence, is about to witness the hottest gubernatorial contest ever. The first governorship election in the State pitched late Chief Adeniran Ogunsanya, an old National Council for Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) acolyte running under the banner of the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) with late alhaji Lateef Jakande of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), an old Action Group’s stalwart, and the late Dr. Akerele, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) candidate who had no pedigree and could not ruffled any feather in the election. But at end of the polls, the then electoral umpire, Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO) led by late Justice Ovie Whiskey declared Alhaji Jakande of the UPN the winner with over 85 per cent of the total votes. UPN also cleared all the sets in the State House of Assembly. That election set the trend for the successive elections in the State, with any party with UPN background winning the State. The only exemption was the December 1991 Governorship election which late Sir Michael Otedola of the National Republican Convention (NRC), and offshoot of the NPN, won. And he was backed by the former Governor of the State, Alhaji Jakande and his supporters to defeat the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), an offshoot of the UPN, Mr. Yomi Edu.

The state was however to revert back to the progressives fold in 1999 when Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), a direct off shoot of the AG/UPN, now the President-elect, trounced his political mentor-turned foe, Chief Dapo Sarumi who had teamed up with the NPN/NRC elements in PDP, to emerge victorious. can recalled that Tinubu was a product of the PRIMROSE political group founded by Dapo Sarumi when he wanted to break away from the Jakande led Committee of Friends. 

Now the coast is not clear. The waves are violently swinging back and forth, making any navigation very difficult. The ruling APC has suddenly become endangered by the resurgent forces of renegades and rebels. The forces who massed into the so-called Third Force are driven by a single agenda, to disgrace the president-elect. Having failed in the presidential election, who knows the extent they might go in the State election come this Saturday.

The battle has suddenly become three-fold, rather than the usual two-fold. The last time a three-fold battle was fought in the state was 2007 when Mr. Jimi Agbaje ran under AD, Babatunde Raji Fashola ran under the Ac and Musiliu Obanikoro contested under the PDP. Raji Fashola of the AC easily defeated his two opponents with a landslide.

Now next week, barring any unforeseen circumstances, the incumbent Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu of APC, will slug it out with Dr. Jide Adediran of PDP and the emerging bullish third force, Gbolabo Rhodes-Vivour of LP. recalled that the candidate of LP, Mr. Peter Obi won the presidential election in the State by out scoring APC’s Bola Tinubu with 582,454 votes to APC’s 572,606 votes. But in a twist, the electorates reverted back  into the status quo in the parliamentary elections, by returning all APC candidates. The party, APC despite the vitriolic, asinine campaigns against it by a section of the Christian community in the State over its Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket, and the vicious hatred of an ethnic group in the State towards its presidential candidate, secured the three senate seats on offer and twenty-two of the twenty-four of the Federal House of Representatives seats in the seat. 

Now it is the time for the local governorship and State House of Assembly elections. The three parties that keenly fought the presidential battler have since been separated. The former sparring partner, PDP has been reduced to a shadow of its glorious past when it was threatening the AD, AC, CAN, APC tendencies in the State gubernatorial contest. The party has been reduced to mere rubbles by internal combustion. Now it is the LP and what it represents that are the new tiger in the field that the APC needs to cage. The party, LP is comprised of those who felt that the APC leadership in the State did not offer them any shield during the damaging #EnsdSars protests leading to claims and counter-claims of massacre of protesters, and the Igbo population who want to affirm their believe that Lagos “belongs to all, a no man’s land”.

The roots of the “Lagos belongs to no one” was planted in the First Republic politics of the late Dr. Nnamdi Azikwe and NCNC’s proteges of Chief Adeniran Ogunsanya, Chief T. O. S Benson and others. The slang then was “Gegedegbe L’eko Wa”. They used this to countered late Chief Awolowo and his disciples who claimed “Lagos belongs to the West”. The NCNC people have never won any election with the slogan and campaign ever since.

A member of a socio-political group, Omo Eko Pataki who spoke to in camera wondered how the late Dr. Nnamidi Azikwe could had claimed to acquired a large expanse of land stretching from Maryland, Ikeja covering the entire Ikeja Industrial Estate, Lagos State Secretariat, Adeniyi Jones, to Ile Zik in Agege Motor Road. He said the acquisition of the said land by the Western Regional Government under the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo gave birth to the vicious “Lagos is no man’s land” campaign of Dr. Azikwe and his NCNC proteges. He blamed the Igbos for the tension in the State since the #EndSars days.

Bother top APC leader in Alimosho area, blamed the leadership of his party for sitting pretty comfortable in their living rooms thinking all is well politically, when otherwise seems to be case. He drew correspondent’s attention back to the 2011 gubernatorial election in the State, saying that was the last time the party had a comfortable victory. He said because of the inability to properly manage the internal selection process, the party suffered during the 2015 gubernatorial election, same in 2019.  

According to him, he would have expected the leadership to sit down, reflect on all these and fix things properly, but to his surprise nothing of such, but arrogant grandstanding. The results, he said is the shocks the party received in the presidential election.

All still points to Babajide Sanwo-Olu of APC retaining his seat, with a fresh mandate, if the National Assembly elections held same day with the presidential election are anything to go with. All the campaigns of calumny were targeted at the presidential tickets of Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kassim shettima, the two being Muslims. Now Sanwo-Olu is a known Christian with close ties with the Pentecostal Movement. The hostility to the ticket will not be as intense as the one generated by the presidential ticket. Again, since the failure of Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in the presidential race, their supporters may not have their energy to bombard the polling booths come Saturday as they did last Saturday. This may give APC the edge. But for Sanwo-Olu to shout eureka, he has to contend and overcome Dr. Jide Adediran of the PDP and Gbobo Rhodes-Vivour of LP first come Saturday.

APC will also win a clear majority in the House of Assembly

Lagos State: Expect APC with a slight edge

Oyo State:

During the last week’s presidential election, the State Governor, Engr. Seyi Makinde led his people to vote for the candidate of the rival APC in the State. APC had a field day picking all the Senate seats and the House of Representatives seats. 

However, this move may now backfire and affect the chances of Makinde himself in the coming gubernatorial and Sate elections next Saturday. He has more than the candidate of APC, Senator Teslim Folarin, to contend with, there is also Bayo Adelabu, of the Accord Party who can also rock the boat, if giving a slight chance.

There is the tendency of the bitter PDP supporters to vote against the Governor in retaliation against the loss of their candidates in the National Assembly polls. The loss of Atiku may not mean much, but the several House of Representatives candidates and the three Senatorial candidates may be hard to forget, hence the need for Makinde to watch his back.

APC’s Folarin may be the direct beneficiary of the feud. He is more positioned than Accord Party’s Bayo Adelabu to clinch the seat. But either ways, expect an interesting battle in Oyo State come Saturday. 

Therefore, come Saturday the bulk of the 449,884 votes for APC and 182,977 for PDP may be shared further between Makinde, Folarin and Adelabu. LP with its 99,110 votes at the presidential election therefore, may not have an opportunity of benefiting in this tripartite battle. It is strictly between the trio of APC, PDP AND AP.

Oyo State: Too close to call

Osun State:

Despite the fact that the State will not participate in the governorship election on Saturday, having had its own in July 16, last year, the State House of Assembly seats will be hotly contested between the APC and PDP. However, while PDP surprisingly won all the National Assembly seats in the State alongside the presidential election, the APC is not lowering their voices. The party claimed that not fewer than seventeen lives were lost in the highly monetized and weaponised election. They promised to come back more forcefully during the State House of Assembly election.

In the presidential poll, PDP had a slight edge with 354,366 votes to beat APC, who scored 343,045 votes, while LP had 23,283 votes.

Osun State: PDP may continue its streak 

Ekiti State:

Like its sister state, Osun, there will be no governorship here as it had its own in June of last year. But there may not be any shocks in the State House of Assembly polls as the APC may make a clean sweep of the seats as it did during the presidential and National Assembly elections in the State. The State returned a total votes of 201,494 for APC to placed first. PDP came second with 89,554 votes while LP came third with 11,397 votes.

Expect APC to make a clean sweep of the seats in the State House of Assembly.

Ekiti State: APC all the way

Ondo State:

Ondo State too may followed the path of its sister State, Ekiti by again repeating the handsome votes for the APC as it did in the last presidential and National Assembly elections. The Stater returned a total votes of 369,924 to placed APC firmly in the presidential ascendancy, with PDP garnering only  115,463 votes, while LP cornered 44,405 votes.

Ondo State: APC to pick all seats

Ogun State:

Prior to the last week’s presidential polls, former President  Olusegun Obasanjo and an Afenifere leader, Pa Ayo Adebanjo were rooting for the candidature of Peter Obi of the LP. Obasanjo wrote a damning letter, campaigned vigorously for Obi, Pa Adebanjo ran a campaign that belied his age, yet the two lost in their polling units badly. The Vice President, Pastor Yemi Osibanjo’s team thoroughly white-washed them. Now this is the State election, the two titans have not endorsed any candidate, but another titan, Senator Ibikunle Amosun has done just that.

The issue of Awori/Egbado/Yewa’s governorship may play a huge role in wins eventually, come Saturday. The area has been clamouring for the governorship slot since the creation of ogun State. Both Chief Segun Osoba and Senator Ibikunle Amosun are from the Egba stock in Central Senatorial District. Otunba Gbenga Daniel and the present Prince Dapo Abiodun are also from Remo area of the Ijebu in East Senatorial District. It is only the Yewa/Egbado/Awori group in the West Senatorial District that are yet to taste the Seat in Oke Ilewo Government House, Abeoukuta.

But the incumbent Governor, Dapo Abiodun of APC, sure has a lot going for him, but at the same time has a lot inhibiting his chances of grabbing a second term mandate. Aside the traditional foe, the PDP, a new dimension has been introduced into the Ogun State governorship election since 2019 when the then Governor, Ibikunle Amosun sponsored one Abiodun Akinlade under the Allied Progressives Movement (APM) against the candidate of his party, Dapo Abiodun. This caused a lot of hot salvos and attacks within the party. The President, Muhammadu Buhari and other parties were stunned during the presidential campaign in the State as Amosun boys attacked them with pebbles and insults.

Abiodun won, still Amosun would not stealth his sword. This time around he has set out his masquerade under the Advanced Democrats Congress (ADC) with a lawyer and a son of the West Senatorial District, Biyi Otegbeye as his candidate. Both Abiodun and Otegbeye will slug it out with Ladi Adebutu of the PDP, also from Ogun East Zone, come Saturday. 

APC won both the presidential polls and the three Senate seats last Saturday, with a landslide, only conceding two seats in the House of Representatives to the Amosun-backed ADC. The party scored 341,554 votes to defeat PDP who scored 123,831 votes to placed second. LP scored 85,829 despite the efforts of the former President Obasanjo and Pa Adebanjo.

What happens next Saturday? Would the Yewa/Awori/Egbado zone pulls its weight this time and send their son, Otegbeye to the Oke Ilewo Government House? This is in spite of the fact that both Abiodun and Adebutu are from the same town in Remo Zone. But this race surely belongs to APC and the Central Senatorial zone will determine who wins.

Ogun State: Expect APC all way

Federal Capital Territory, Abuja

The presidential and National Assembly polls in Abuja, FCT followed an unusual, but predictable manner. FCT, like Lagos has a huge numbers of Igbo residents. These huge population were calling for the presidency to come to South East and they voted along that line. Peter Obi of LP won the territory with 281,717 votes to placed ahead of Bola Tinubu of APC who polled 90,902 votes. Atiku of PDP placed third with 74,194 votes.

The only Senatorial seat in the Territory was won my Mrs Ireti Kingibe, wife of the former SDP Chairman, and later vice presidential candidate in 1993 of late publisher of Concord Newspapers, Bashorun Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola.

However, gathered that the APC candidates in the States are already flaunting the advantages gained in the Federal elections while campaigning for the State elections. The party swept the National Assembly seats in both the two Chambers of the National Assembly, along with the presidential seat in the Federal polls. 

According to INEC Chairman, Prof. Yakubu, APC tops the National Assembly polls with 57 seats to PDP’s 27, out of the 98 already declared in the Senate and 162 seats to PDP’s 102 seats, out of the already declared 325 seat in the House of Representatives.

The party’s stalwarts are now brandishing these figures at the State levels to convince the electorate to join the ‘winning party’. This bandwagon effect, analysts believed, may affect many of the clos and undecided States in the coming State elections. (C2023)

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Tinubu’s Bold Moves Against Poverty, Insecurity



The President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu got cranky late Friday (9 June, 2023). He has been working at breathtaking speed all week long. He had held strategic meetings, focusing mainly on how to resurge the flailing economy. He summoned the Security Chiefs to the Presidential Conference Room in Aso Rock to look also at the worrisome state of insecurity in the country. He surely means business.

His task is well defined. He too blurted out at the inaugural dinner later in the day after the swearing-I ceremonies: “Please do not pity me”. He is focus on revving up the economy, stem the dangerous tide of insecurity across the country, bring the spiralling inflation and bring back the laughter and smiles to the faces of the over two hundred million traumatized Nigerians. 

He pledged defiantly at an interactive session with the Royal Fathers under the aegis of the National Council of Traditional Rulers of Nigeria (NCTRN) at the Aso Villa, Friday (9 June) that “any roadblock in the way of the progress of the Nigerian people would be removed by his government”.

The President for the umpteenth time justified the removal of fuel subsidy, saying that the country cannot continue feeding smugglers and acting as Father Christmas to neighbouring countries, saying “the decision to remove fuel subsidy, improve security, create jobs, and sustain the environment”.

In between all these, he was able to squeezed in time to meet the newly elected  parliamentarians, both at the Upper and Lower Chambers of the National Assembly, to moderate boiling tempers over the zoning of the Principal Officers of the National Assembly. Behold the hurricane Asiwaju is on the prowl.

After the meeting with the newly elected parliamentarians, Hon. Amobi Godwin Ogah, a newly elected Labour Party member to represent Isiukwuato/Umunneochi Federal Constituency, Abia State, was aghast. He could not hide his admiration for the President. He told newsmen: “I never knew Tinubu is so intelligent” 

He went further: “This Is my President,  Today is my best day. After listening to him speak today. President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is so intelligent and is prepared to serve this country. I saw the love and hope today”

The President’s avowed determination to frontally combat and crush the twin issues of poverty and insecurity holding down the country by the jugulars. He surely meant business. This crusade he had started with the inaugural address to the nation. He had simply declared: “Now that the subsidy is gone”. He also went further to vowed that that he intended to unify the exchange rate.

The reverberating effects of that simple declarations quickly resonated across the four poles holding the country. it simply jerked everybody up from their lethargy. He had since met with both the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, (CBN), Emmanuel Emefiele and the Managing Director of the NNPCL PLC, Mele Kyari to discuss modalities for achieving these targets.

However, it is not hyperbolic to state that Nigeria’s economy is on the edge of the precipice, if not down there already. This trend, the newly inaugurated President Tinubu fully takes cognizance of in his inaugural address to the nation. The need to revamp the economy is urgent, and pressing. He has started the revamping by halting further subsidies of fuel, a move that have trigger multi-dimensional responses across the country.

Part of the President first step was the call on the members of the European Union to assist Nigeria and Africa in strengthening its security and economic development to alleviate poverty in the continent. The President spoke during a telephone conversation with the President of the European Council, Mr. Charles Michel.

According to President Tinubu, Nigeria and the whole of Africa would require the help and partnership of her friends and development partners like the EU to address the excruciating poverty in the continent.

 While requesting the EU to look at specific areas of security challenge like the Lake Chad and coastal areas, the Nigerian leader promised to remain in contact with the European Union and other member states.

 He said poverty and insecurity were priority areas for his administration and he would do all that is required to address them.

Also, the President has expressly directed the National Economic Council (NEC) led by Vice President Kashim Shettima to device an approach and begin the process of working on interventions to mitigate the impact of subsidy removal on the Nigerians.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPCL) confirmed in Lagos during the week that “once the Dangote Refinery starts pumping out refined petroleum products from late July or early August, the Corporation will cut down on its imports of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol”.

NNPCL is currently the sole importer of petrol into Nigeria, a task which it had shouldered for several years. Other oil marketers stopped importing the product due to their inability to access the United States dollars at the official rate.

The NNPCL also owned 20 per cent stake in the Dangote Refinery. The 650,000 barrels per day single line, crude oil processing refinery was inaugurated on May 22, 2023 by former President, Muhammadu Buhari, who described the facility as a “game-changer” in the World’s oil market.

The promoter, Aliko Dangote stated at the occasion that the refinery would start delivering refined products to the Nigerian market from late July or Early August this year.

When contacted by our correspondent and asked about what would happen to the NNPCL fuel imports programme once the Dangote Refinery began to push out products in August, the national oil firm’s spokesperson, Garba-Deen Muhammad, said emphatically that this would change.

According to him, “NNPC Limited is bringing in products from outside Nigeria as a matter of necessity, not as a matter of choice. We would have preferred that we produce here, refine here and we sell and provide the energy security that the country needs.

“Because of the circumstances that surround our refineries, we cannot allow the country to be grounded. So we have to buy wherever we can get and sell. So if Dangote products are available, why should we not buy from Dangote?

“There is absolutely no reason. And that is the reason why we are interested in the Dangote Refinery. We are co-owners, shouldn’t we do business with our partners rather than do it with other people?”

While President Tinubu faces these hydra-headed demons head-on, certainly heads must roll. There must be scape goats from the mess of the past. After days of speculation, the hammer eventually fell on the CBN Governor, Emefiele Friday (9 June, 2023). The man was on his seat all day, held meetings and closed for the long weekend, Monday (June 12, 2023) being a public holiday, was headed for home. He had hardly settled down when he heard the news of his immediate suspension. 

According to a terse press statement by Willie Bassey, Director of Information Office, of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Emefiele was directed to immediately hand over the affairs of his office to the Deputy Governor (Operations Directorate), who will act as the Central Bank Governor pending the conclusion of investigation and the reforms. 

The suspension, according to the statement is “sequel to the ongoing investigation of his office and the planned reforms in the financial sector of the economy”. 

But in a dramatic twist, minutes after his suspension as CBN Governor, the state secret police (DSS) was alleged to have him. He was said to have been arrested by the men of the DSS late  Friday. 

But prior to CBN’s suspension, the DSS, on December 7, 2022, in an exparte application with reference no: FHC/ABJ/CS/2255/2022, sought an order of the Federal High Court to effect his arrest.

The security agency had accused the embattled CBN Governor of financing terrorism, fraudulent activities and economic crimes of national security dimension.

The Chief Judge of the Federal High Court, Justice J. T Tsoho, however, refused to grant the application of the DSS. The court said such an application should have been accompanied with the presidential approval because of the grave implications for the Nigerian economy if the CBN governor is arrested and detained. But late Friday, he was sent on indefinite suspension and then the arrest.

But on Saturday (10 June, 2023), the service tweet that “currently, Emefiele is not with the DSS”.

While the CBN’s Governor unfolds on, there are also strong speculations about the safety of the job of the Chief Executive Officer of the NNPCL, Mele Kyari at the weekend. It was speculated that the President intended to clean the old rot and refocus and reposition the economy, especially the financial and oil sector.

Later Saturday afternoon the Service released another tweet confirming the arrest of the CBN Governor. 

According to the Service, the DSS has finally confirmed that the suspended CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele is now in their custody.

A tweet from the agency reads: “…DSS hereby confirms that Mr Godwin Emefiele, the suspended Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, is now in its custody for some investigative reasons.

Meanwhile investigations across the country revealed that in less than a fortnight after putting an end into the fuel subsidy regime, reports across the country indicate a mixed reaction by the generality of the people. 

The major hope is that once the Dangote Refinery starts production late July or early August, prices of fuel is expected drastically since there wont be need for US dollars exchange in transactions any longer.

© 2023


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Democracy Day 2023: Full text of President Bola Tinubu’s address



Fellow Nigerians,

  1. It is exactly three decades today that Nigerians went to the polls to exercise their inalienable right to elect a President of their choice to lead the transition from military dictatorship to a representative government of the people.
  2. The abortion, by military fiat, of the decisive victory of Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the June 12, 1993, presidential election, up to that time, the fairest and freest election in the country’s political evolution, turned out, ironically, to be the seed that germinated into the prolonged struggle that gave birth to the democracy we currently enjoy since 1999.
  3. In rising to strongly oppose the arbitrary annulment of the will of the majority of Nigerians as expressed in that historic election, the substantial number of our people who participated in the struggle to de-annul the election signified their fierce commitment to enthroning democracy as a form of government that best ennobles the liberty, the dignity of the individual and the integrity as well as the stability of the polity. The fierce opposition to the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election and the unrelenting pro-democracy onslaught it unleashed was the equivalent of the battle against colonial rule by our founding fathers that resulted in the gaining of Nigeria’s independence in 1960.
  4. Just like the anti-colonial movement, the pro-June 12 vanguard demonstrated, once again, the enduring validity of the 19th century historian, Arnold Toynbee’s eternal postulation, that civilization and societies experience progress as they are forced to respond to challenges posed by the environment. The unjust annulment of a widely acknowledged free and fair election was a challenge that elicited resistance by a resurgent civil society, leading ultimately to the attainment of our ‘second independence’ as exemplified by the return of democratic governance in 1999.
  5. Fellow compatriots, we celebrate a day that has remained a watershed in our nation’s history, not just today, but for every June 12, for the endless future that our beloved country shall exist and wax stronger and stronger, generations of Nigerians will always remind themselves that the democracy that is steadily growing to become the defining essence of our polity was not gifted to us on a silver platter.
  6. We can easily recall the sacrifice and martyrdom of Chief MKO Abiola, the custodian of the sacred mandate that was so cruelly annulled. He sacrificed his life in unyielding, patriotic defence of the ideals of democracy as symbolized in his choice, by his fellow countrymen and women, as their duly-elected President. There was an easier choice for him. It was to forgo the justice of his cause and opt for the path of ease and capitulation in the face of the tyranny of power. To his eternal credit and immortal glory, Abiola said no. He demonstrated the time-tested eternal truth that there are certain ideals and principles that are far more valuable than life itself.
  7. Everyday, on this day, down the ages we will recall the several other heroes of democracy such as Kudirat Abiola, wife of Chief Abiola, who was brutally murdered while in the trenches fighting on the side of the people. We remember Pa Alfred Rewane, one of the heroes of our independence struggle and Major General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua (rtd) who were silenced by the military junta while in pursuit of democracy. They gave their yesterday for the liberty that is ours today.
  8. The point is that we must never take this democracy for granted. We must forever jealously guard and protect it like a precious jewel. For, a people can never truly appreciate the freedoms and rights democracy guarantees them until they lose it.
  9. We have traversed the dark, thorny path of dictatorship before and those who experienced it can readily testify to the unbridgeable gap between the dignity of freedom and the humiliation and degradation of tyranny. True, rancorous debates, interminable wrangling, ceaseless quarrels, bitter electoral contestations may be perceived by some as unattractive features of democracy. But they also testify to its merit and value.
  10. This year, we held the seventh in the cycle of elections that have become sacred rituals of our democratic practice in this dispensation since 1999.


  1. That the polls were intensely contested is in itself positive evidence that democracy is well and alive in our land. It is only natural that even as those who won and experienced victory in the various elections are elated and fulfilled, those who lost are disenchanted and disappointed. But the beauty of democracy is that those who win today can lose tomorrow and those who lose today will have an opportunity to compete and win in the next round of elections.
  2. Those who cannot endure and accept the pain of defeat in elections do not deserve the joy of victory when it is their turn to triumph. Above all, those who disagree with the outcome of the elections are taking full advantage of the constitutional provisions to seek redress in court and that is one of the reasons why democracy is still the best form of government invented by man.
  3. For Chief MKO Abiola, the symbol of this day, in whose memory June 12 became a national holiday, democracy is eternal.
  4. It is about rule of law and vibrant judiciary that can be trusted to deliver justice and strengthen institutions. It has become imperative to state here that the unnecessary illegal orders used to truncate or abridge democracy will no longer be tolerated.
  5. The recent harmonization of the retirement age for judicial officers is meant to strengthen the rule of law, which is a critical pillar of democracy. The reform has just started.
  6. The democracy that will yield right dividends to the people who are the shareholders means more than just freedom of choice and right to get people into elective offices. It means social and economic justice for our people. To the winner of June 12, democracy offers the best chance to fight and eliminate poverty. Thirty years ago, he christened his campaign manifesto, ‘Farewell to Poverty’ because he was convinced that there is nothing divine about poverty. It is a man-made problem that can be eliminated with clearly thought out social and economic policies.
  7. It is for this reason that, in my inauguration address on May 29, I gave effect to the decision taken by my predecessor-in-office to remove the fuel subsidy albatross and free up for collective use the much-needed resources, which had hitherto been pocketed by a few rich. I admit that the decision will impose extra burden on the masses of our people. I feel your pain. This is one decision we must bear to save our country from going under and take our resources away from the stranglehold of a few unpatriotic elements.
  8. Painfully, I have asked you, my compatriots, to sacrifice a little more for the survival of our country. For your trust and belief in us, I assure you that your sacrifice shall not be in vain. The government I lead will repay you through massive investment in transportation infrastructure, education, regular power supply, healthcare and other public utilities that will improve the quality of lives.
  9. The democracy MKO Abiola died for is one that promotes the welfare of the people over personal interests of the ruling class and one where the governed can find personal fulfillment and happiness. That is the hope MKO Abiola ignited throughout our country in 1993.
  10. On this year’s Democracy Day, I enjoin us all to rededicate ourselves to strengthening this form of government of free peoples that has been our guiding light these past 24 years. In particular, those of us who have been privileged to be elected into public offices at various levels in both the executive and legislative arms of government must recommit ourselves to offering selfless service to the people, and delivering concrete democracy dividends in accordance with our electoral promises.
  11. On my part and that of my administration, I pledge anew our commitment to diligently fulfilling every component of our electoral pact with the people – the ‘Renewed Hope’ agenda.
  12. We shall be faithful to truth. Faithful to equity. And faithful to justice. We shall exercise our authority and mandate to govern with fairness, respect for the rule of law, and commitment to always uphold the dignity of all our people.
  13. On this note, I wish us all a happy Democracy Day celebration and pray that the light of liberty shall never be extinguished in our land.
  14. Thank you all and may God continue to bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

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Governance Grounded in Ondo State as Akeredolu Refuses to Hand Over to Deputy 



Governance and all Governmental activities seemed to have grounded to a standstill in Ondo State since the State Governor, Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu (CON, SAN), became indisposed. He has also refused to transmute power to his deputy, despite several pleadings.

The Governor is said to be holed up in his private home in Ibadan, Oyo State capital since he was moved out of Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), where only his trusted aides have access to him.

The Governor according to reliable sources in government circle in Akure, Ondo State was rushed to Germany towards the end of last year for an undisclosed illness. He was said to be in Germany for about two months, before coming back to the country early this year. Upon returning to the country, he was said to had been headed straight for Abuja, where he was said to be “resting”, before moving to Ibadan.

Sources within government circle told that since he was hurriedly driven out of Akure, towards the end of last year, all governmental activities have come to a halt. His close circle was said to be against his transmuting power to his deputy, as stipulated by the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended).

The Deputy Governor, Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa, is said to be in a quandary about happenings in the State Government. Sources disclosed to our correspondent that he had gone to see the ailing Governor in his Ibadan home several times, but was not allowed by the Governor’s aides to see him. Several files needing urgent attention by the Governor are said to have piled up on his table in Ibadan unattended to.

For over a week now there have been some cold rumours circulating in hush tones about the health and condition of the Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu.

The absence became more noticeable when State Governors of the federation had the inaugural meeting with the President, Bola Tinubu in Aso Rock last week at State House, Abuja. At the meeting, it was only the Ondo State Governor that was conspicuously missing. The deputy could not attend. checks in Akure, Ondo State revealed however, that the Governor has refused bluntly to transmute power to his deputy, despite being aware of his health conditions since last year. Sections 189, 190 and  191 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended) clearly stated with the Governor should transmute power to his deputy. 

The man popularly called “Aketi” has been out of circulation since March, immediately the general elections were done with. He was first reported to have gone to Germany for medical attention, but upon return, he made straight for Abuja. He was later said to have been moved from his abode in Abuja to his private home in Ibadan.

These conflicting reports about the condition of the Governor however, took a dangerous turn Saturday (3 June, 2023) when a news blog published reports of his death and someone also circulated a viral picture announcing his death. The State Government however, moved swiftly to dispel the rumours of his death as carried by a news blog.

But learnt that the Governor, according to some very reliable sources very close to him, is said to be in ‘a very critical condition in his private home in Ibadan’, capital of Oyo state. 

His close aides spoken to refused to give more on the ailing condition of the Governor, other than his condition has worsen since last week Friday (2 June 2023) evening. He is said to have become almost incapacitated. 

The Governor, was born on 21 July 1956, known widely as Aketi, is a vibrant lawyer and politician has been in office since 24 February 2017. Another Governorship election is due in October 2024. 

Responding to the rumours of his passing, the Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Richard Olatunde released some video clips of the ailing Governor praising God.

In one of the videos, the Governor was seen dancing and singing. The lines of the lyrics showed governor Akeredolu who was joyous and full of praises to God for keeping him alive

Governor Akeredolu, left the country for Germany shortly after the APC convention in March. When he came back, he relocated to Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), ‘to rest’, before moving down to his house in Ibadan, Oyo State.

He officially wrote the State House of Assembly to take permission before embarking on an annual leave.

His adopted prefix is “Arakunrin”, while his nickname is “Aketi”. He is a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) who became president of the Nigerian Bar Association in 2008. Akeredolu was also a Managing Partner at the law firm of Olujinmi & Akeredolu, which he co-founded with Chief Akin Olujinmi, a former Attorney General and Minister for Justice of Nigeria. On 21 July 2020, he was declared as the Ondo governorship candidate after the primary elections under the platform of the APC. He is the current Governor of Ondo State and doubles as the chairman of Southwest Governors Forum.

© 2023


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