Featured
#NigeriaDecides2023: Battle Shifts to the States as APC, PDP, LP, and NNPP Jostle for 27 Governorship Seats
Published
2 years agoon
*APC, PDP, LP, NNPP Jostle for 27 Governorship seats
By Afolayan Adebiyi
With the teeth gnashing and most debilitating Presidential and National Assembly elections done with, leaving in its wake, huge shocks, inconsolable blabbing and threats of legal and extra-legal assaults, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) now moves to the next poll in its timetable: the States’ elections – Governorship seats and houses of Assembly.
Come March 11, INEC will rolled out its mats once again, in twenty-seven States, where governorship elections will hold. The States Houses of Assembly election will also hold in all the thirty-six States of the Federation.
Of the twenty-seven States where the governorship election will hold, sixteen first timers Governors will be seeking re-election, while six new faces will jostle for the coveted seats, in eleven States.
www.focusmagazineonline.com noted however, that the election of a Governor of a State follows almost a similar pattern with that of the President of the Country. The Governor of a State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state’s local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
The horizon is largely unpredictable now. The colour of the Sky is not blue, nor greyish white, but rainbow. The outcome of the presidential poll cannot be used to arrive at a logical permutation of how the State elections will go. Like they say: All elections are local. Now local issues are set to determine the outcome of the State governorship and Assembly elections. Neither the conquering All Progressives Congress (APC), the fading Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or the burgeoning third force, Labour Party (LP) can assertively claim of certainty or assurance of winning in any State as things stand presently few days the commencement of voting.
At the final call on the presidential election, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu polled a total of eight million, seven hundred and ninety-four thousand, seven hundred and twenty-six (8,794,726) votes, representing 36. 61%, to emerge the winner. He was trailed by the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who polled six million, nine hundred and eighty-four thousand, five hundred and twenty (6,984,520) votes, 29.07%, to emerged the runners up. Mr. Gregory Peter Obi placed a distant third with a total votes of six million, one hundred and one thousand, five hundred and fifty-three (6,101,533) votes, 25.4%. The candidate of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) Dr Rabiu Kwankwanso polled one million four hundred and ninety-six thousand, six hundred and eighty-seven (1,496,687) votes, representing 6.23% of the total votes, while the remaining fourteen candidates polled six hundred and forty eight thousand, four hundred and seventy-four (648,474) votes representing 2.7% of the total votes.
While the issues that dominated discussions prior to the presidential polls have since faded away with the Federal polls, ego and the need to sustain legacy and heritage are now the main focus of the governorship campaigns across the country. both the PDP and LP parties are busy gnashing their teeth, in deep sorrow, mourning their losses at the polls.
While Peter Obi, the candidate of the LP has assembled a crack team of twenty Senior Advocates to fight his battle at the Courts, Atiku Abubakar, his PDP counterpart, has taken his battle to the streets of Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, where he hoped to woo more sympathizers to his cause. His ‘Black Monday’ protest in Abuja on Monday, 6 March was planned to forced INEC to reverse the results already announced.
www.focusmagazineonline.com recalled that both Atiku and Obi are claiming victories at the poll.
North West:
The North West zone was turned into tripartite battle zone by the trio of Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC, Atiku Abubakar of PDP and Rabiu Kwankwanso of NNPP. APC surprisingly won in Jigawa, Kebbi, and Zamfara states, losing Kano to NNPP and Kaduna, Sokoto and Katsina to PDP. APC currently leads in the number of Senatorial seats declared so far from the seven States by eight members to six for PDP and two for NNPP. Five seats are yet to be declared. APC also recorded the highest numbers of multiple votes from the Zone. If these factors work in the State elections coming up next Saturday, the party may been coasting home in at least five of the seven States in the zone. The loss in Sokoto, Katsina, Kebbi and Kaduna may be reversed, while NNPP may be iron cast in the race for the Government House, Kano, Kano State.
APC’s Tinubu score a total votes of 2,653,235 to tops the zone, edging Atiku of PDP who scored 2,329,802 to the second position, while NNPP’s Kwakwanso came third with 1,175,281 votes and Obi of LP scored 350,188 to placed fourth. The zone appeared safe for the ruling APC
APC might just nick the zone again.
Sokoto State:
The out-going State Governor, Mr. Aminu Tambuwal could not prevent the rampaging machinery of the APC to muscled him out of the contest during the presidential election. His candidate, Alhaji Atiku simply bowed to Bola Tinubu of the APC. Also two Senatorial seats were lost to the rampaging forces of the APC led by a former Governor of the State, Bafarawa.
The Governorship will be of most interest. www.focusmagazineonline.com recalled that Tambuwal himself barely won his re-election with less than five hundred votes in 2019. But in the last presidential election, the results were also similar with APC scoring 285,444 to PDP’s 288,769. A margin of less than three thousand five hundred votes.
The results of the National Assembly are being expected as at the time of tiling this report. Expect a tense battle in the Seat of the Caliphate this time around.
Of the eighteen parties that may present candidates for the election, the battler is a straight one between Saidu Umar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Ahmed Aliyu of the All Progressive Congress (APC).
Sokoto State: Too close to call
Katsina State:
Despite the present of the out-going President, Muhammadu Buhari and the State Governor, Masari Bello, both staunch members of the APC, PDP still had a slight edge here during the presidential polls. The Emir of Katsina and Daura Emirates respectively were said to have openly expressed preference for the candidate of PDP. Also Atiku himself, harped intensely on religion and ethnic sentiments during the campaign. The PDP candidate eventually won the presidential polls with 489,045 votes to 482,283 garnered by the candidate of the APC.
Despite his winning the presidential poll, APC won the three Senate seats on offer and the majority of the House of Representatives seats. But now, this local politics election will affirm the supremacy of the President Buhari’s tendencies in the State. Expect APC all the way.
Incumbent APC Governor Aminu Bello Masari is term-limited and cannot recontest, therefore the new candidate Umar Dikko Radda may end up picking the baton from him come May 28.
Katsina State: APC to win
Kebbi State:
Kebbi State provided another interesting returns during the presidential election. Though an APC controlled State, but PDP edged APC with of some forty-eight thousand votes, nicking two hundred and eighty-five thousand, one hundred and seventy-five thousand to APC’s two hundred and forty eight thousand, and eighty-eight votes. PDP also carted home the two Senate seats already declared, and majority of the House of Representatives seats, thus leaving APC with a mountain to climb at the State election come next Saturday.
Incumbent APC Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu is term-limited, but strive to see his successor from within his party. The factors that aided an Atiku’s victory at the presidential polls are no longer present, hence the chance of the APC’s candidate succeeding.
PDP candidate, a former Army Major General, Aminu Bande will face a former Teachers’ Union leader, Nasir Idris of APC.
Kebbi State: Too close to call
Zamfara State:
This is traditionally an APC State. The party lost all the elective positions in 2019 to PDP via a Court of Appeal Ruling which disqualified all its candidates. But no sooner did the PDP elements found their way back into the party. But this time around, the party had learnt its lessons, re-organised its house and was revving. At the presidential and National Assembly elections, the party dusted PDP by a landslide, gathering a handsome votes of two hundred and ninety-eight thousand, three hundred and ninety-six to defeat PDP who garnered one hundred and ninety-three thousand, nine hundred and seventy-eight votes to placed second. APC also won the two Senate seats and majority of the Lower Chamber’s seats, so far declared in the State.
APC has renominated Governor Bello Matawalle to run for a second term in Office. He have all the edge over his challenger, Dauda Lawal of PDP and others
Zamfara State: APC all the way
Kano State:
Kano State incumbent APC Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje is term-limited and cannot seek a re-election therefore throwing up the contest open. While the omnibus Kwakwansiyya Movement is deep rooted in the State, its candidate, through the NNPP, Abba Kabir Yusuf, also a former Commissioner in the State, will be the candidate to beat in the election. The Movement has its tap root in Kano State, its feeds from the Talakawa’s School of Thought of late Mallam Aminu Kano. Dr. Rabiu Kwakwanso has so far successfully instilled the ethos of the Movements into the legions of his red caps followers. For now, Kwakwanso owns Kano and vice versa. Therefore, his party, NNPP, did not surprised anyone by posting the majority nine hundred and ninety-seven thousand, two hundred and seventy-nine votes in the presidential election. The only surprise is that he did not surpassed the million mark and also lost one of the three Senatorial seats, Kano North Senatorial seat, to the rival APC. APC pulled its weight with Governor Umar Ganduje pulling a healthy five hundred and seventeen thousand, three hundred and forty-one votes to edge PDP to a distant third with a total votes of one hundred and thirty-one thousand, seven hundred and sixteen.
NNPP also won majority of the House of Representatives seats, leaving APC to clung to the few seats.
While Alhaji Abba Kabir-Yusuf, popularly called “Abba Gida-gida”, is contesting on the platform of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP). To confront the behemoth that is NNPP’s machine in Kano State is the State’s Deputy Governor, Dr Nasiru Yusuf-Gawuna, who is the APC candidate, while Sadiq Wali is the PDP candidate, instead of Mohammed Abacha, who was earlier mentioned by the commission as the party candidate.
The trend is expected to continue during State election come Saturday.
Kano State: NNPP all the way
Jigawa State:
The only surprise here during the presidential and National Assembly polls is the paltry ninety-eight thousand two hundred and thirty-four votes NNPP garnered, and not the APC winning the State. The State was expected to key into the Kwakwansiyya Movement of the neighbouring Kano, but bluntly refused. Bola Tinubu of APC came first with four hundred and twenty thousand, three hundred and ninety votes, followed by Atiku of PDP who came second with three hundred and eighty-six thousand, five hundred and eighty-seven votes, Kwakwanso only managed a distant third with a paltry ninety-eight thousand two hundred and thirty-four votes.
APC also corned two Senate seats to PDP’s one and majority of House of Representatives seats.
In the governorship election, the APC’s candidate, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar is well ahead of others in the race.
Jigawa State: APC all the way
Kaduna state:
That Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El Rufai is not seeking a fresh mandate, does not mean a lesser tension in deciding who succeeds him. The polarity between the northern and southern Kaduna, Muslims and Christians in particular, will always generate tension whenever a state-wide election will hold in the State.
El Rufai could not deliver his State for his party at the presidential election, losing to Atiku of PDP. Atiku won with 554,360 votes, with Tinubu of APC securing 399,293 votes to placed second, while Obi of LP came third with 294,494 and Kwakwanso of NNPP making the top four with 92,969 votes. PDP also cornered the three Senate seats in the State and majority of House of Representatives votes.
But the State election may be different. Atiku made the speech calling for northerners to vote for northerners in Kaduna. This might have a resonating effect. But when the governorship candidate of the party, a former member of the House of Representatives, Isa Ashiru go head-to-head with the candidate of APC, Uba Sani, a Senator for Kaduna Central and Jonathan Asake, also a former member of the House of Representatives and former president, Southern Kaduna Peoples Union, of the LP the voting pattern will change.
Kaduna State: Too close to call
North East:
North East was expected to be the main battleground of the last presidential and National Assembly elections. The PDP presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubaker is from Adamawa State and Senator Kassim Shetima, the running mate of the APC presidential candidate is also from Borno State. The two eventually were only able to pulled their weight in the respective States, with the remaining four states opening themselves up for fierce competition between the trio of Atiku, Tinubu and Obi respectively.
In the run down to the presidential election, Daniel Bwala a former APC’S leader had wanted to use the zone to launched his Northern Christian Group and attack the candidates of APC on the ground of the Muslim-Muslim ticket, but the moved evaporated as soon as it was launched. Despite the noises of Bwala, Dogora, Babachair Lawal and Boss Mustapha in the North East zone, Bola Tinubu was able to secure good numbers in the region.
At the end of voting, Atiku Abubakar of PDP showed he was the home boy with 1,741,851 votes, while Tinubu came second with a scores of 1,185,458 votes. Obi came third having scored 315,108 votes.
This zone will present an interesting scenario in the State election as the APC ma rebound in the zone during the coming State elections.
Too close to call
Bornu State:
The vice presidential candidate of APC was a former Governor here, and also a former Senator. He made all that count at the Federal elections where his party, APC, cruised to a comfortable win with 252,282 votes representing 54.22% of the total votes cast. Atiku of PDP came second with 190,921 votes, leaving others with no tangible votes. Senator Ali Ndume of APC from Borno North is the only Senatorial candidate so far declared, the remaining two seats have been declared inconclusive by the electoral commission, as at the time of filing this report. APC also won the majority of the House of Representatives seats from the State.
The mere presence of Governor Babagana Umara Zulum in the race may automatically reduced the chances of many of the other candidates. He is known to have performed well in the State since taken over from former Governor Kassim Shettima. But Ali Jajari of the PDP is leaving no stone unturned in his bid to unseat the Governor.
Borno State: Expect APC to keep its flag up
Adamawa State:
Atiku Abubakar was contesting the presidential election in any form the sixth time last Saturday, and this clearly showed in his subdued comportment throughout his campaign. He campaigned very little, said very little, but like an experienced snipper, went for his targets directly, without wasting much ammunition. He directly told his audience in Kaduna not to waste their votes on Yoruba or Igbo, since they have an home boy in him. Perhaps, this message sank in his home State of Adamawa, and few other States in the core North.
Adamawa State perhaps responded to the cryptic cry of their son and returned a total votes of 417,611 to enabled him defeat his main challenger, former Governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu of APC, who polled 182,881 votes to placed second. Another former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi polled 105,648 to placed third in the log.
Atiku and his PDP however, shared the Senate seats with the APC, who grabbed one vital seat and some House of Representatives seats in the State. Now that Atiku, the home boy is out of the race, the people, may decide to swing their votes in the governorship and other State election.
APC is parading the only female governorship candidate in the country in Adamawa State. The governorship candidate, Senator Aishatu Binani
Passed through a lot since the start of her nomination exercise. She had the former EFCC boss, Nuhu Ribadu and a brother to the First Lady, to contend with, before she was finally confirmed by the Court. But how far can she battle the machine of the wounded Atiku Abubarkar remains to be seen. She also have the incumbent Governor, Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri of the PDP to slug it out with. With the Ribadu and others not fully supporting her, she may have an uphill task to climb.
Adamawa State: Too close to call
Bauchi State:
Whatever the disruptive efforts of Hon. Yakubu Dogora, former Speaker, Federal House of Representatives, the results in his State was not too bad for the APC Muslin=Muslim candidate. Atiku defeated Tinubu by scoring 426,607 votes to the APC’s candidate 316,694 votes. APC also secured a Senate seat to the PDP’s two, and some House of Representatives seats.
The State governorship and House of Assembly election will not have the damaging effect of the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the presidential candidates of the APC, so expect the party to be competitive in the State.
While PDP is presenting the incumbent Governor Bala Mohammed who initially declined to run for re-election, instead running for the president. However, after losing the PDP presidential primary in May 2022, Mohammed quickly rushed down to Bauchi to pick the nomination form and was renominated in a rerun primary. On its own, the APC is presenting a former Chief of Air Staff, retired Air Marshal, Saddique Abubakar, as its governorship candidate
Bauchi State: Too close to call
Gombe State
In Gombe State, despite the presence of Governor Inuwa Yahaya of APC, could not prevent the loss of its presidential candidate in the State. Atiku of PDP defeated Tinubu of APC by scoring 319,123 votes to 146,977 votes. PDP also cornered two of the three Senate seats available in the State and majority of the House of Representatives Seats.
Incumbent APC Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya is running for a second term and was renominated by his party. Yahaya being renominated by the APC unopposed, while the PDP has a businessman Mohammed Jibrin as its flag bearer.
Gombe State: Too close to call
Taraba State:
Taraba State may present a more interesting scenario in the coming State election come Saturday. The three parties, APC, LP and PDP are running on almost equal strength in the State, and any one of them may emerge the winners in the governorship election. PDP pushed into the front seat in the presidential election scoring 189,017 votes to edge out LP, who scored 146,315 to place second. The APC candidate scored 135,165 to placed third in the election. And in the National Assembly election, both the PDP and APC have one Senator each, while INEC is yet to conclude the third seat.
Religion factor will not play much role in the next election, so is the ethnic factor. So any of the three frontline parties can clinch the coveted governorship seat.
Come Saturday, the PDP candidate, Kefas Agbu will slug it out with, Joel Ikenya, of LP, Danladi Baido of SDP and Senator Emmanuel Bwacha, of APC.
Already, rumours are flying the State that Kefas Agbu of PDP gave out fifty million naira to the Christian Association of Nigeria, (CAN), Taraba branch to endorse him. How far this will play out will be seen at the end of voting on Saturday.
Taraba State: Too close to call
Yobe State:
Already APC with the two Senate seats so far declared here in its bag, the other one is inconclusive, may be enjoying an advantage over other parties. This is in spite of the fact that Atiku Abubakar of PDP won the presidential election with a total votes of 198,567 to Tinubu of APC who polled 151,459. Other parties are literarily non-existent here, thus leaving the race to both the PDP and APC to slug it out.
The Senate President, Ahmed Lawan is from here and he has secured a return mandate to the Upper Chamber of the National Assembly. The victory of APC at the National Assembly election may aid their cause in their push for the governorship seat and State House of Assembly seats come Saturday.
Governor Mai Mala Buni of APC is going for a second term, his main challenger, is Umar Iliya Damagum of the PDP. Aside the incumbency factor, the popularity of the Senate President, Ahmed Lawan will be an added advantage to the Governor.
Yobe State: Too close to call
North Central:
Many analysts had expected the North Central zone to turned the heat on both the APC and PDP during the Federal elections. This is in the light of the many reported and unreported clashes between the herdsmen and farmers, the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC, and the open disdain for the continued Fulani hegemony. But this was not to be as the zone balanced out the candidates in the voting patten.
The APC candidate, Bola Tinubu shocked the rest by outscoring them with 1,670,091 votes to win the zone. He was followed by Peter Obi who scored 1,133,840 votes to placed second, beating PDP’s Atiku to the third position with a score of 1,087,884 votes.
The trend may also continue in the coming Saturday’s State elections.
Expect APC to win the Zone again
Benue State
The electorates in Benue State literarily vent their anger on their Governor, Sam Ortom for a lot of reasons. He was preoccupied with the politics of his rebellious G-5 Group with the PDP to the detriment of his State. His endorsement of Peter Obi of LP for the presidential election was shunned by the electorates in favour of APC who was led by Rev Fr Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Iormem Alia. APC revved up their campaigns in the State towards the presidential election, and the results was the shocking 310,468 votes recorded by the party to beat Peter Obi of LP who score 308,372 votes to placed second. PDP came third with 130,081 votes.
More interesting, Ortom himself lost his senatorial contest to the candidate of APC. APC picked two of the three Senate seats while PDP picked the remaining one. APC also secured the majority seats in the House of Representatives. As things stand, expect Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Iormem Alia to occupy the Government House from May, 29, 2023.
Benue State: APC to maintain the streak
Nasarawa State:
The National Chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu is from Nasarawa state, so also is the incumbent State Governor, Abdullahi Sule, yet the duo could not stop Peter Obi of LP from winning the State in the presidential poll. The LP’s candidate secured the highest votes in a keenly contested election. The three parties were almost neck-to-neck in this State. Obi led with 191,361 votes followed by Tinubu who polled 172,922 votes and Atiku who polled 147,093 to placed third.
But in a twist, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) won the two Senate seats, leaving one for PDP in the State. The party also won the majority of the House of Representatives seats declared so far. How the party will sustain this tempo in the State election is what analysts are currently looking at.
Incumbent APC Governor Abdullahi Sule is eligible to run for re-election and has been renominated by his party. Governor Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa State seeks re-election for another four years on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Meanwhile, the PDP also nominated former House of Representatives member David Ombugadu as its governorship candidate in the state. While a former Minister, Mr. Joseph Ewuga is the candidate of the LP. The three candidates shall test their electoral might some next Saturday in what promises to be an interesting electoral contest.
Nasarawa State: Undecided
Plateau State:
Plateau State is never known for following a dogmatic political concept right from the First Republic. In the First Republic, it aligned with Mr. Tarkar of Middle Belt Progressives, but in the Second Republic, the State went with NPP of Dr. Nnamdi Azikwe. In the aborted Third Republic it was the defunct SDP, while in this present dispensation, it has tasted both the PDP and APC at different times. Presently, the incumbent Governor, Simon Lalong is an APC member.
During the presidential election, Peter Obi scored a total votes of 466, 272 to defeat Bola Tinubu of APC, who polled 307, 195 to placed second with Atiku coming third with 243,808 votes.
However, in the National Assembly polls, PDP came top with two Senate seats, with the other one yet to be declared as at the time of filling this report. PDP also won the majority of the House of Representatives seats declared so far. This make the State uncertain going forward towards the State elections.
Since the incumbent APC Governor Simon Lalong is term-limited and cannot seek a re-election, his party, APC selected a former INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner for Benue State Nentawe Yilwatda, while PDP picked Caleb Mutfwang, a former Chairman, Mngu Local Government Council of the State. Mr. Patrick Dakum is flying the banners of the Labour Party.
With the breezy performance of LP and PDP in the State during the presidential elections, the battle line should be drawn between the two parties, but one cannot write off the incumbent Governor, who is also the Director General (DG), of the APC Presidential Campaign Council (PCC), Simon Lalong.
Plateau State: Undecided
Niger State:
The APC won the presidential election here last week, with 575,183 votes to defeat the PDP’s candidate, Atiku who polled 284,898 votes. Obi of LP was only able to polled a miserly 80,452 votes. APC also secured two of the three Senate seats, while the other one went to the PDP. APC was also able to secured the majority seats in the House of Representatives election. This is, however, in spite of the retired General Ibrahim Babangida’s open support for the candidate of the LP. The party, APC, is expected to continue its winning streak here during the State election.
The incumbent APC Governor Abubakar Sani Bello delivered the State to his presidential candidate in the last presidential election. He also secured two Senate seats. Although, he is term-limited and cannot seek re-election his influence will count much on the election. The APC candidate, Mohammed Umar Bago, a member of the House of Representatives representing Chanchaga Federal Constituency, while the PDP candidate is a former commissioner in the State, Isah Liman Kantigi,
Niger State: APC to continue the streak
Kwara State:
Prior to the presidential polls, the former Senate President, also a former Governor of the State, Dr. Bukola Saraki has embarked on an expansive tour of the entire State making inflammatory statements about the state of things in the country. The hope was that the people would listen to him and reverted back from the O To Ge mentality, but when the INEC rolled out the results of the polls, Saraki was further sent into political exile. He lost all the National Assembly seats and the presidential polls.
The State Governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is widely adjudged to have performed and stabilized the State from the rancorous days of Saraki and his lackeys. The 263,572 votes poled by the APC during the presidential election sent enough message to the former Senate President. Moreso, the party picked all the three Senate seats and House of Representatives seats in the State. PDP came second with 136,909 votes.
Expect Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq to continue his O To Ge revolution come Saturday. His party will still control the State House of Assembly. His main challenger, Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi of the PDP may find it difficult to dethrone him, even with the rumoured alliance with LP and some other parties, the incumbent seems to be a sure bet for the Government House.
Kwara State: APC all the way
Kogi State:
With the type of political operator in Kogi State, there is no doubt which party will win any local election in the State. During the presidential polls, the State Governor, Mr. Yahaya Bello, simply incapacitated his opponents’ strongholds by cutting off the main roads leading to the zone. This denied easy access to even INEC officials. He won both elections at the end of the day, producing the three Senators from the State and all the Federal House of Representatives seats.
Since there is no governorship election in the State, Bello can now focused mainly in returning all his candidates to the State House of Assembly.
But if the results of the presidential and National Assembly polls are to be used as a yardstick, Yahaya bello and his APC may be excused for an early jubilation. At the polls a handsome 240,571 votes to defeat PDP who polled 145,104 votes to come second. LP came third with 56,217 votes. APC also won all the National Assembly seats in the State.
Expect APC all the way
South South Zone:
The nation’s south South zone always pursue different political goals during elections. The zone is neither known for any political tendency, but vote as a matter of interest. States here always swing their votes to suit the prevailing circumstances.
The Zone do not really key into the Igbo cry for the Presidency, since their son Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan had had the slot once between 2010- 2015. At the same time, the thinking of it is the turn of the Southern part of the country does not really mean much to them. Their votes were spread across the main frontline parties during the presidential and National Assembly elections. Eventually, Peter Obi of LP out muscled the rest to clinched the first position in the zone with 1,210,673 votes, with Tinubu of APC trailing him with 799,957 votes to come second. Atiku of PDP scored 719,908 votes to placed third.
The State elections will be a bit different. The Rivers State helmsmen that gave Tinubu 231,951 votes may withdraw much of it and give it to their governorship candidate. Also Obi too will suffer loss of votes in the same Rivers State. Edo and Delta may re-arranged themselves and vote according to tradition, thus dumping LP. APC won two Senate seats each in the two States and may launch a strong bid for the governorship next Saturday.
South South zone is too close to call
Akwa Ibom State:
Akwa Ibom State has been voting the along with the PDP line since the turn of the present dispensation. And despite the sentiments of the Southern part of the country for the presidency to come to them, still voted for the Northerner, Atiku enmass. Atiku defeated Tinubu and Obi here by scoring 214,012 votes to the 160,620 votes Tinubu scored and 132,683 votes recorded for Peter Obi. PDP also took two of the three Senate seats, leaving only one for APC.
With the State of things in the State, the incumbent Governor, Governor Udom Gabriel Emmanuel, of PDP, may have a former commissioner, Umo Eno as his successor.
APC may not present any candidate for the governorship election, because INEC did not recognise its candidate over the conduct of the primary election that produced him. The party had nominated a businessman, Akanimo Udofia on 26 May in a controversial process that was not recognized by INEC. Since the APC was unable to overturn the INEC decision, before the close of nomination, the nominees of smaller parties became major contenders like former Senator John James Akpan Udo-Edehe of NNPP and Senator Bassey Albert Akpan of YPP may suddenly have a good chance of taking over the Government House.
Akwa Ibom State: PDP to maintain their streak
Cross Rivers State:
Cross Rivers State is another State that shared the sentiment of the Southern president. Although, a traditional PDP stronghold, the State voted massively for Peter Obi of LP and Bola Tinubu of APC during Federal elections. Obi of LP garnered a total votes of 179,917 to marginally, pushed Bola Tinubu of APC to the second position with his 130,520 votes. Atiku came third with 94,425 votes. The resurgence of APC in the State is due to the influence of the Governor, who defected to the party in May 2021.
However, APC picked two of the three Senate seats in the State and majority of the House of Representatives seats declared so far.
The incumbent Governor, Ben Ayade is not contesting as he will be rounding up his second term in Office, but would be more interested in who succeed him. But his party, APC may have to work hard to produce that successor. Although, the healthy votes the party garnered at the Federal polls may by encouraging for him to push further.
PDP candidate, Senator for Cross River Central, Sandy Ojang Onor will slug it out with former Senator for Cross River South, Bassey Otu, as the identity of the LP candidate is largely unknown.
Rivers State: too close to call
Bayelsa State:
Bayelsa State is another State in the South that do not voted along the call for the Southern presidency. They returned Atiku of PDP as the winner with 68,818 votes, with Peter obi of LP trailing with 49,975 votes, while Bola Tinubu of APC came third with 42,572 votes.
The State is another State where the governorship election will not hold as the present Governor, Duoye Diri of PDP came in in year 2020.
Politically, the state’s early 2019 elections were categorized as the continuation of the PDP’s dominance albeit with the APC making considerable gains by gaining one senate and two House of Representatives seats. The APC also gained ground in the assembly election and Bayelsa also was the state that swung the most towards Buhari in the presidential election, although that could be chalked up to former Governor Goodluck Jonathan no longer being PDP nominee. Later in 2019, the State swing towards the APC dramatically increased as its gubernatorial nominee, David Lyon won by a large margin, but Diri was declared victor after Lyon was disqualified before the inauguration. Ensuing senate by-elections in 2020 were then easily won by the PDP, cementing the state’s potentially erratic voting record.
Bayelsa State: Undecided
Edo State:
This is another State where the Governorship election will not hold until later in the year, probably by September. The Governor, Godwin Obaseki of PDP is already having troubles with his party, same as had with the APC that initially produced him. His support for his party’s candidate Atiku was suspect in the last presidential election. The State returned a total votes of 331,163 for Peter Obi of LP, with Bola Tinubu of APC cornering 144,471votes to placed second. Atiku polled 89,585 votes in the State to placed third in the log.
APC, however dominated the National Assembly election with two of the three Senate seats, dropping one for the PDP. The party also won the majority of House of Representatives seats.
Edo State: Too close to call
Delta State:
The results of the Federal elections from Delta were quite a shock, and a surprise to many. Delta has always been known too be a strong PDP State, but sudden swinging towards LP is surprising, considering the fact the State Governor Dr Ifeanyi Okowa is the running mate to the PDP’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.
In the presidential poll, LP secured 341,886 votes to beat Okowa and his candidate, Atiku who secured 161,600 votes, while Bola Tinubu of APC secured 90,183 votes to placed third.
In the National Assembly election, APC snatched two of the available three Senate seats, leaving one for PDP.
PDP candidate for the next Saturday’s governorship election is the Speaker of the State’s House of Assembly, Sheriff Oborevwori , APC has the Senator for Delta Central, Ovie Omo-Agege to fly its flag. Although Oborevwori was initially disqualified by a Federal High Court on 7 July due to issues with his certificates, an Appeal Court overturned the ruling and reinstated him. The candidate of LP in the election Kennedy Kawhariebie Pela. The three are expected to test their political might to determine who succeeds Dr OKowa of PDP.
Delta State: Too close to call
South East:
The forces of centrifugal and centripetal were in contention in this during the last Federal election. It was an opportunity for clamouring for a President of Igbo extraction and the many pro-Biafra forces to unite and face those who believe in the unity of the country. The results was an overwhelming endorsement of the Igbo agenda. These forces had massed in the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), before, but now they have found a comfortable home in LP. The only snag derailing the success of the forces all along remained a poor network with other zones in the country. The zone could not drive the move to the Presidency alone, and they refused to accept that fact. The few votes harvested there by both the APC and PDP were enough to further weaken the chances of their preferred candidate, Mr. Gregory Peter Obi of LP.
However, the scenario may change in this local election as there is no Tinubu of Yoruba extraction or Atiku of Fulani extraction in the race. It is now purely Governor Soludo of the old APGA that will be fighting to stabilize his government against the marauders from the LP.
The South East will definitely present an interesting scenario come Saturday as many local tendencies, particularly from the APGA, will spring up to challenge the LP.
Anambra State:
Anambra State have done its governorship election in an off period, therefore, will not participate in the governorship election, so the huge army of Obi-dients in the State can go and rest and allow Dr. Charles Soludo to concentrate on his assignment. The 584,621 votes scored by LP in the State is healthy enough to send a message to the rest of the country. the zone is demanding for its share of the occupancy of Aso Rock Presidential Villa. Atiku came a poor second with 9,036 votes while Tinubu got a miserly 5,111 votes to place third. With these figures, LP still lost a Senate seat to the Young Progressives Party (YPP), thus winning the remaining two seats.
Now is the time for the State House of Assembly seats contest. Governor Soludo and APGA may not lower their guards this time around. Besides, the LP are out of gas presently, so expect a tough battle between APGA and LP in Anambra State for the control of the State House of Assembly.
Anambra State: APGA may clinch it
Imo State:
Imo State is the same mix with Anambra State. The State has done its governorship election some two years ago, and now only has the state House of Assembly to contend with. The the State Governor, Hope Uzordinma, of APC, could not stop the militant band of Obi-dients from capturing his State. LP won the election with 360,495 votes, to beat APC who scored 66,406 votes, and PDP with 30,234 votes.
The Governor will strive to control the House of Assembly, hence the intense battle that may play out in the State.
Imo State: Too close to call
Abia State:
Governor Ikpeazu membership of the G-5 group of the disgruntled Governors under the PDP may not really help him after all. He has just lost the Senatorial election and his candidate in the Governorship election may be endangered by the combined forces of PDP and LP.
The LP candidate dictated the pace of the state in the just concluded presidential polls by garnering 327,095 votes, PDP came second with 22,676 votes, pushing APC to a distant third with 8,914 votes.
Incumbent PDP Governor Okezie Ikpeazu is term-limited thus, cannot seek a re-election. The first candidate PDP put forward, Prof Uche Ikonne, died a few weeks to the election. He was quickly replaced with Okey Ahiwe, a former Chief of Staff to Ikpeazu. APC is putting forward Ikechi Emenike its gubernatorial candidate during the governorship election in 2019. The identity of the LP candidate is yet unknown as at the time of compilation of this report.
Abia State: Too close to call
Enugu State.
Enugu State is no different from any of the remaining five South Eastern States. They shared a lot in common, especially political tendency. Therefore, the incumbent State Governor, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi could not prevent LP from picking his nose during the presidential and National Assembly elections in the State. LP massively won the presidential polls. Both LP and PDP also shared the two Senate seats declared so far in State one apiece.
LP true to permutation raced away from the chasing pack in the presidential polls, polling a grand 428,640 votes to diminished PDP and APC who polled 15,749 and 4,772 votes respectively.
With the incumbent PDP Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi already running out of his second term tenure, the party, PDP has picked a former commissioner Peter Mbah to succeed him. The APC picked a businessman Uche Nnaji, while the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) nominated former minister Frank Nweke. Mr. Chijioke Edeoga, the runner-up in the PDP primary was the LP’s candidate in the State.
Expect a straight battle between LP, APGA and PDP.
Enugu State: too close to call
Ebonyi State:
LP easily swept Ebonyi State during the presidential polls, polling two hundred and fifty-nine thousands, seven hundred and thirty eight votes representing 79.83% to defeat APC who polled only 42,402 votes representing 13.03% to place second, in spite of the efforts of Governor Dave Umahi. Atiku Abubakar scored 13,503 or 4.15% to placed third. But surprisingly enough, APC went ahead to grabbed all the three Senatorial seats, leaving none for the LP. The party all cleared majority of the House of Representatives seats.
This leaves a bibulous path for all the parties to thread in the coming State gubernatorial and Assembly election come Saturday. Would APC through the State Governor, Umahi repeats this feat and win the governorship and the House of Assembly elections? This will be determined by little details.
For the Governorship election, Mr Francis Nwifuru, Speaker of the Ebonyi House of Assembly, is the candidate of the APC, and Prof. Bernard Odoh, a former Secretary to State Government (SSG) is contesting under the platform of (APGA). While Chief Ifeanyichukwuma Odii flies the flag of PDP, Chief Edward Nkwegu, will contest under LP.
Ebonyi State: Undecided
South West:
South West, Yorubaland is traditional bastion of progressive politics in the country. Right from the First Republic, the people have been indoctrinated into the ideals and ideas of progressivism in political life by the late Saga, Obafemi Awolowo, a former Premier of the Zone. And each a State in the zone falls in the hands of the conservative wing, one can see the unease among the people. The recent case is that of Oyo and Osun states.
The sudden surge of the irredentists #EndSars protesters, the Igbo braggadocio, now rearing their heads, especially in Lagos State, are clearly antithetical to what the zone stand for, politically.
In the days leading to the presidential election, the zone was in its bullish electoral mood in the weeks preceding the Federal election. The zone is enlightened, liberal and make choices freely, without religion or ethnic consideration. The zone made it clear that it is its turn to produce the President, after President Goodluck Jonathan, and President Muhammadu Buhari. The lacuna here is that the leaders who agreed on zoning of the presidency only recognized North and South, not the divisive six zones. Still Atiku from the North won in Osun State, defeating the APC candidate, Tinubu who have close ties with the State and secured the mandatory 25% of the total votes cast in Oyo State. The LP candidate, Peter Obi, on the other hand won in cosmopolitan Lagos State, although failed miserably in other States in the zone.
At the end, Tinubu scored 2,279,407 votes to defeat Atiku who scored 941,941 votes across the six States. Obi came third with 846,478 votes.
Lagos State:
For the first time in its fifty six years history, Lagos State, the State of Aquatic Splendour, the acclaimed Centre of Excellence, is about to witness the hottest gubernatorial contest ever. The first governorship election in the State pitched late Chief Adeniran Ogunsanya, an old National Council for Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) acolyte running under the banner of the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) with late alhaji Lateef Jakande of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), an old Action Group’s stalwart, and the late Dr. Akerele, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) candidate who had no pedigree and could not ruffled any feather in the election. But at end of the polls, the then electoral umpire, Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO) led by late Justice Ovie Whiskey declared Alhaji Jakande of the UPN the winner with over 85 per cent of the total votes. UPN also cleared all the sets in the State House of Assembly. That election set the trend for the successive elections in the State, with any party with UPN background winning the State. The only exemption was the December 1991 Governorship election which late Sir Michael Otedola of the National Republican Convention (NRC), and offshoot of the NPN, won. And he was backed by the former Governor of the State, Alhaji Jakande and his supporters to defeat the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), an offshoot of the UPN, Mr. Yomi Edu.
The state was however to revert back to the progressives fold in 1999 when Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), a direct off shoot of the AG/UPN, now the President-elect, trounced his political mentor-turned foe, Chief Dapo Sarumi who had teamed up with the NPN/NRC elements in PDP, to emerge victorious. www.focusmagazineonline.com can recalled that Tinubu was a product of the PRIMROSE political group founded by Dapo Sarumi when he wanted to break away from the Jakande led Committee of Friends.
Now the coast is not clear. The waves are violently swinging back and forth, making any navigation very difficult. The ruling APC has suddenly become endangered by the resurgent forces of renegades and rebels. The forces who massed into the so-called Third Force are driven by a single agenda, to disgrace the president-elect. Having failed in the presidential election, who knows the extent they might go in the State election come this Saturday.
The battle has suddenly become three-fold, rather than the usual two-fold. The last time a three-fold battle was fought in the state was 2007 when Mr. Jimi Agbaje ran under AD, Babatunde Raji Fashola ran under the Ac and Musiliu Obanikoro contested under the PDP. Raji Fashola of the AC easily defeated his two opponents with a landslide.
Now next week, barring any unforeseen circumstances, the incumbent Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu of APC, will slug it out with Dr. Jide Adediran of PDP and the emerging bullish third force, Gbolabo Rhodes-Vivour of LP.
www.focusmagazineonline.com recalled that the candidate of LP, Mr. Peter Obi won the presidential election in the State by out scoring APC’s Bola Tinubu with 582,454 votes to APC’s 572,606 votes. But in a twist, the electorates reverted back into the status quo in the parliamentary elections, by returning all APC candidates. The party, APC despite the vitriolic, asinine campaigns against it by a section of the Christian community in the State over its Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket, and the vicious hatred of an ethnic group in the State towards its presidential candidate, secured the three senate seats on offer and twenty-two of the twenty-four of the Federal House of Representatives seats in the seat.
Now it is the time for the local governorship and State House of Assembly elections. The three parties that keenly fought the presidential battler have since been separated. The former sparring partner, PDP has been reduced to a shadow of its glorious past when it was threatening the AD, AC, CAN, APC tendencies in the State gubernatorial contest. The party has been reduced to mere rubbles by internal combustion. Now it is the LP and what it represents that are the new tiger in the field that the APC needs to cage. The party, LP is comprised of those who felt that the APC leadership in the State did not offer them any shield during the damaging #EnsdSars protests leading to claims and counter-claims of massacre of protesters, and the Igbo population who want to affirm their believe that Lagos “belongs to all, a no man’s land”.
The roots of the “Lagos belongs to no one” was planted in the First Republic politics of the late Dr. Nnamdi Azikwe and NCNC’s proteges of Chief Adeniran Ogunsanya, Chief T. O. S Benson and others. The slang then was “Gegedegbe L’eko Wa”. They used this to countered late Chief Awolowo and his disciples who claimed “Lagos belongs to the West”. The NCNC people have never won any election with the slogan and campaign ever since.
A member of a socio-political group, Omo Eko Pataki who spoke to www.focusmagazineonline.com in camera wondered how the late Dr. Nnamidi Azikwe could had claimed to acquired a large expanse of land stretching from Maryland, Ikeja covering the entire Ikeja Industrial Estate, Lagos State Secretariat, Adeniyi Jones, to Ile Zik in Agege Motor Road. He said the acquisition of the said land by the Western Regional Government under the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo gave birth to the vicious “Lagos is no man’s land” campaign of Dr. Azikwe and his NCNC proteges. He blamed the Igbos for the tension in the State since the #EndSars days.
Bother top APC leader in Alimosho area, blamed the leadership of his party for sitting pretty comfortable in their living rooms thinking all is well politically, when otherwise seems to be case. He drew www.focusmagazine.com correspondent’s attention back to the 2011 gubernatorial election in the State, saying that was the last time the party had a comfortable victory. He said because of the inability to properly manage the internal selection process, the party suffered during the 2015 gubernatorial election, same in 2019.
According to him, he would have expected the leadership to sit down, reflect on all these and fix things properly, but to his surprise nothing of such, but arrogant grandstanding. The results, he said is the shocks the party received in the presidential election.
All still points to Babajide Sanwo-Olu of APC retaining his seat, with a fresh mandate, if the National Assembly elections held same day with the presidential election are anything to go with. All the campaigns of calumny were targeted at the presidential tickets of Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kassim shettima, the two being Muslims. Now Sanwo-Olu is a known Christian with close ties with the Pentecostal Movement. The hostility to the ticket will not be as intense as the one generated by the presidential ticket. Again, since the failure of Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in the presidential race, their supporters may not have their energy to bombard the polling booths come Saturday as they did last Saturday. This may give APC the edge. But for Sanwo-Olu to shout eureka, he has to contend and overcome Dr. Jide Adediran of the PDP and Gbobo Rhodes-Vivour of LP first come Saturday.
APC will also win a clear majority in the House of Assembly
Lagos State: Expect APC with a slight edge
Oyo State:
During the last week’s presidential election, the State Governor, Engr. Seyi Makinde led his people to vote for the candidate of the rival APC in the State. APC had a field day picking all the Senate seats and the House of Representatives seats.
However, this move may now backfire and affect the chances of Makinde himself in the coming gubernatorial and Sate elections next Saturday. He has more than the candidate of APC, Senator Teslim Folarin, to contend with, there is also Bayo Adelabu, of the Accord Party who can also rock the boat, if giving a slight chance.
There is the tendency of the bitter PDP supporters to vote against the Governor in retaliation against the loss of their candidates in the National Assembly polls. The loss of Atiku may not mean much, but the several House of Representatives candidates and the three Senatorial candidates may be hard to forget, hence the need for Makinde to watch his back.
APC’s Folarin may be the direct beneficiary of the feud. He is more positioned than Accord Party’s Bayo Adelabu to clinch the seat. But either ways, expect an interesting battle in Oyo State come Saturday.
Therefore, come Saturday the bulk of the 449,884 votes for APC and 182,977 for PDP may be shared further between Makinde, Folarin and Adelabu. LP with its 99,110 votes at the presidential election therefore, may not have an opportunity of benefiting in this tripartite battle. It is strictly between the trio of APC, PDP AND AP.
Oyo State: Too close to call
Osun State:
Despite the fact that the State will not participate in the governorship election on Saturday, having had its own in July 16, last year, the State House of Assembly seats will be hotly contested between the APC and PDP. However, while PDP surprisingly won all the National Assembly seats in the State alongside the presidential election, the APC is not lowering their voices. The party claimed that not fewer than seventeen lives were lost in the highly monetized and weaponised election. They promised to come back more forcefully during the State House of Assembly election.
In the presidential poll, PDP had a slight edge with 354,366 votes to beat APC, who scored 343,045 votes, while LP had 23,283 votes.
Osun State: PDP may continue its streak
Ekiti State:
Like its sister state, Osun, there will be no governorship here as it had its own in June of last year. But there may not be any shocks in the State House of Assembly polls as the APC may make a clean sweep of the seats as it did during the presidential and National Assembly elections in the State. The State returned a total votes of 201,494 for APC to placed first. PDP came second with 89,554 votes while LP came third with 11,397 votes.
Expect APC to make a clean sweep of the seats in the State House of Assembly.
Ekiti State: APC all the way
Ondo State:
Ondo State too may followed the path of its sister State, Ekiti by again repeating the handsome votes for the APC as it did in the last presidential and National Assembly elections. The Stater returned a total votes of 369,924 to placed APC firmly in the presidential ascendancy, with PDP garnering only 115,463 votes, while LP cornered 44,405 votes.
Ondo State: APC to pick all seats
Ogun State:
Prior to the last week’s presidential polls, former President Olusegun Obasanjo and an Afenifere leader, Pa Ayo Adebanjo were rooting for the candidature of Peter Obi of the LP. Obasanjo wrote a damning letter, campaigned vigorously for Obi, Pa Adebanjo ran a campaign that belied his age, yet the two lost in their polling units badly. The Vice President, Pastor Yemi Osibanjo’s team thoroughly white-washed them. Now this is the State election, the two titans have not endorsed any candidate, but another titan, Senator Ibikunle Amosun has done just that.
The issue of Awori/Egbado/Yewa’s governorship may play a huge role in wins eventually, come Saturday. The area has been clamouring for the governorship slot since the creation of ogun State. Both Chief Segun Osoba and Senator Ibikunle Amosun are from the Egba stock in Central Senatorial District. Otunba Gbenga Daniel and the present Prince Dapo Abiodun are also from Remo area of the Ijebu in East Senatorial District. It is only the Yewa/Egbado/Awori group in the West Senatorial District that are yet to taste the Seat in Oke Ilewo Government House, Abeoukuta.
But the incumbent Governor, Dapo Abiodun of APC, sure has a lot going for him, but at the same time has a lot inhibiting his chances of grabbing a second term mandate. Aside the traditional foe, the PDP, a new dimension has been introduced into the Ogun State governorship election since 2019 when the then Governor, Ibikunle Amosun sponsored one Abiodun Akinlade under the Allied Progressives Movement (APM) against the candidate of his party, Dapo Abiodun. This caused a lot of hot salvos and attacks within the party. The President, Muhammadu Buhari and other parties were stunned during the presidential campaign in the State as Amosun boys attacked them with pebbles and insults.
Abiodun won, still Amosun would not stealth his sword. This time around he has set out his masquerade under the Advanced Democrats Congress (ADC) with a lawyer and a son of the West Senatorial District, Biyi Otegbeye as his candidate. Both Abiodun and Otegbeye will slug it out with Ladi Adebutu of the PDP, also from Ogun East Zone, come Saturday.
APC won both the presidential polls and the three Senate seats last Saturday, with a landslide, only conceding two seats in the House of Representatives to the Amosun-backed ADC. The party scored 341,554 votes to defeat PDP who scored 123,831 votes to placed second. LP scored 85,829 despite the efforts of the former President Obasanjo and Pa Adebanjo.
What happens next Saturday? Would the Yewa/Awori/Egbado zone pulls its weight this time and send their son, Otegbeye to the Oke Ilewo Government House? This is in spite of the fact that both Abiodun and Adebutu are from the same town in Remo Zone. But this race surely belongs to APC and the Central Senatorial zone will determine who wins.
Ogun State: Expect APC all way
Federal Capital Territory, Abuja
The presidential and National Assembly polls in Abuja, FCT followed an unusual, but predictable manner. FCT, like Lagos has a huge numbers of Igbo residents. These huge population were calling for the presidency to come to South East and they voted along that line. Peter Obi of LP won the territory with 281,717 votes to placed ahead of Bola Tinubu of APC who polled 90,902 votes. Atiku of PDP placed third with 74,194 votes.
The only Senatorial seat in the Territory was won my Mrs Ireti Kingibe, wife of the former SDP Chairman, and later vice presidential candidate in 1993 of late publisher of Concord Newspapers, Bashorun Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola.
However, www.focusmagazineonline.com gathered that the APC candidates in the States are already flaunting the advantages gained in the Federal elections while campaigning for the State elections. The party swept the National Assembly seats in both the two Chambers of the National Assembly, along with the presidential seat in the Federal polls.
According to INEC Chairman, Prof. Yakubu, APC tops the National Assembly polls with 57 seats to PDP’s 27, out of the 98 already declared in the Senate and 162 seats to PDP’s 102 seats, out of the already declared 325 seat in the House of Representatives.
The party’s stalwarts are now brandishing these figures at the State levels to convince the electorate to join the ‘winning party’. This bandwagon effect, analysts believed, may affect many of the clos and undecided States in the coming State elections.
www.focusmagazineonline.com (C2023)
You may like
Featured
Osun Politics: Aregbesola Grappling in The Dark Alley…
Published
2 weeks agoon
November 30, 2024Battles Odds For Survival
Ogbeni Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola, an iconoclastic political strategist, a former Executive Governor of Osun State and also a former Minister of the Interior Affairs has bluntly refused to comment on the political turbulence he is facing both in his State, Osun, and Lagos, where he had a very strong hold on the political structure in Alimosho local government and more particularly, his well-publicized rift with President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
But one of his right-hand man, who preferred anonymity in a matter of fact, declared that the “door to any reconciliation is closed, finally”.
The associate can actually feel undone by his party’s treatments of Ogbeni Aregbesola and his supporters. They were first expelled by the Osun State chapter in August 2023 by the State Executive Committee of the party.
The State Executive Committee had risen from its meeting and announced the suspension of another set of senior members believed to be supporters and followers of the one-time governor of the State and Internal Affairs Minister, Rauf Aregbesola. Prominent figures on the new list includes the former Secretary to the State Government, Mr. Moshood Adeoti, a former Speaker, Osun State House of Assembly, Hon. Nojeem Salami, a former member of the House of Representatives, who was the Senatorial candidate of the party in Osun East Senatorial District, in the last general election, Hon. Francis Famurewa, and a former Special Adviser to governor Aregbesola, Mr. Kunle Ige, and twenty-two other senior members of the party across the State.
But in a swift reaction then, Mr. Kunle Ige, had dismissed the suspension saying “it is irrelevant and stupid. They can’t even follow common due process. They are destroying the party.
I haven’t been home (Esa Oke) in ages. Since the last election, so where was the anti-party activity? I wasn’t even home (Esa Oke) for the last election. They don’t even think”, he queried.
According to Kunle Ige, the best thing is to “ignore them completely. I don’t have the time for their nonsense”
However, the gale of suspensions were alleged to be a direct response to the launching of the Omoluabi Caucus by the former governor, Aregbesola, in his country home in Ilesa.
While the suspension or expulsion of August 2023 seemed to have died down, another one suddenly erupted in October, 2024. This time around, Ogbeni Aregbesola himself was suspended from the party. And more, he was to face a disciplinary committee for his alleged infractions.
However, this is not the best of time for the political maverick, Ogbeni Aregbesola. His political trajectory from his time at the robustly influential Works Ministry in Lagos State, two-time Executive Governor of Osun State, and lastly, Interior Ministry overseer, attest much to his status as a charismatic grassroots political mobilizer; a man passionately loved by his people, but with an eccentric bend.
While he held sway in Lagos, he built a fortress around himself in the Alimosho local government, the celebrated largest local government area in the country. He controlled the political pulse of the area. And also, was the Alpha and Omega in the larger political empire of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He simply filled the role of a “Mr. Fix It”. He was both de facto and de jure alta ego of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
But presently, the man widely acknowledged as “Mr. Fix It” among the progressives clan is in a political quandary; he is simply at a political cross-road. His weird eccentricity has impacted much on his decisions and actions.
Now Ogbeni Aregbesola himself is in a fix politically. He is said to be nursing either a senatorial ambition from the Osun East (Ife/Ijesa) Senatorial district or if the new party in the offing comes alive, a vice presidential slot with Mallam Nasir El Rufai. But while he gropes for just anything to hang on to for safety in the dark alleys the bitter divorce with Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and the Bourdillion’s political family, has thrown him into, his supporters were still incorrigibly optimistic about his chances of clinging either of the two positions.
But the political road is dark, the coast is very bleak. He is very familiar with all the intrigues and cut throat shenanigans in political circle. He was the Lord in Tinubu’s political empire at a point. He knew the door to his familiar terrain in the All Progressives Congress (APC) might have been permanently shut against him. After all, he witnessed the door being shut against some of his erstwhile colleagues while serving as the Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure in Lagos State.
A member of the Governing Advisory Council (GAC) in Lagos State, who spoke to our correspondent, asked rhetorically recently in an interview with www.focusmagazineonline.com that “of the more than twenty Commissioners, who served under Tinubu with Aregbesola, how many can confidently raise their hands up and still stand by him?
He continued, “the downfall of these men were largely the scheming and shenanigans traceable to Ogbeni Aregbesola. Even the former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode would not forgive him in an hurry”, he said.
Now, the Apha Ogbeni Rauf, is in a quandary himself. He cannot break the barrier erected against him in Tinubu’s empire or APC. He finds it extremely difficult to co-habit with the uninspiring Adeleke Ademola in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party is an amnesia to him, yet he has the ambition of going to the Senate or running as a Vice President. Hence the option of a new political party. The new party according to proponents will be national in outlook and is expected to push both the ruling APC and PDP into the limits.
www.focusmagazineonline.com can recalled that Ogbeni Aregbesola, at a point was effectively, the de facto Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu’s alter ego. in the group, he decided what happened and who got what, in short, he called the shots. And in the words of an All Progressives Congress (APC) leader in Lagos State, the common refrain then in Bourdillion, Tinubu’s residence and political headquarters, was: “go and see Rauf”.
According to the member of the GAC, who preferred anonymity, whatever happened, or who got what or became what, be it in the Governing Advisory Council (GAC), the apex committee overseeing the affairs of Lagos State Government by proxy, were decided mainly by Ogbeni Aregbesola. He was said to have promoted, demoted, terminated, even truncated many political ambitions while his grips on Bourdillion lasted. His imprimatur were said to be everywhere. But not anymore.
Perhaps, his present travails allegedly started from his closeness, roles and actions as Tinubu’s alter ego. As the associate believed that “many around Asiwaju weren’t comfortable with Rauf being so close to Asiwaju… and thus sponsor and even encouraged the division”.
The first signal was the dissolution of the Mandate Group in Lagos. The Group was formed by the core loyalists of Bola Tinubu, the then Executive Governor of Lagos State. Ogbeni Aregbesola was largely in control. By 2017, he had installed his protégé, Alhaji Abdullahi Ayinde Enilolobo as the Apex leader. Suddenly the group, alongside others like Justice Forum and BATCO were dissolved by fiat by the party’s leadership.
However, Ogbeni Aregbesola’s followers in Osun traced his disagreements with the leadership of the Tinubu’s political hegemony to the succession politics in Osun State when his tenure as a two time Executive Governor was rounding up in 2017. Sources in Oshogbo, Osun State, Aregbesola was said to have insisted in having Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, from Iwo Local Government of Osun West Senatorial District as his successor. Thus he plainly explained to Tinubu. But Tinubu was alleged to have preferred his cousin, Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola from Iragbiji, in Boripe Local Government Area, Osun West Senatorial zone of Osun State. From this point, the loggerhead between the two political gladiators was said to have taken its roots. Asiwaju was said to started distrusting Ogbeni and started “feeling that he was becoming a threat to his ambition”.
Aregbesola was said to have grudgingly accepted to work for Gboyega Oyetola at the polls during the 2018 out of circle governorship election in Osun State. Oyetola had emerged victorious after a most rancorous election ever that ended with re-run in four words of Ile Ife, Orolu, and Oshogbo returned him with a margin of less than 500 votes.
In the said election, Aregbesola’s anointed candidate, Moshood Adeoti with hordes of his supporters had mass-moved into another political platform, the Action Democrats Party (ADP). Alhaji Moshood Adeoti cornered the over fifty thousand votes from the Iwo axis, but performed poorly in all other local governments. He came a distant fourth behind Oyetola, Adeleke, and Omisore.
Aregbesola, the master political strategist, took good notice of these returns from the elections. He waited patiently, observing the various take home from the off-cycle election, while looking for the right time to strike. He needed to exact his revenge and teach his former leader some political lessons.
The former eccentric governor started his vengeance war with the ministerial nomination for the State. He was said to have stunted both the nominations of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and another elder of the party, Chief Bisi Akande, to emerge the Interior Affairs Minister during the second term of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure. He was alleged to have used another eccentric political strategist up North, Mallam Nasir El Rufai to clinch the slot. With his emergence as a Minister, he was said to have clearly drawn the battle line with his political block. And from there, he brooks no odds. He started creating his platform, well outside the Bola Tinubu’s or APC’s blocks.
First step was the launching of the True Osun Progressives group (TOP), then the Omoloabi Forum within the State APC. These groups were essentially made up of notable foot soldiers of APC in Osun State, but who were fiercely loyal to Ogbeni Aregbesola. The twin group quickly spread across all the thirty-three local governments in the State. The State Government under Mr. Oyetola was said to have been seriously rattled by the emergence and spread of TOP in the State. The party also panicked. Known members of Aregbesola’s government were the leaders.
While the newly formed TOP and Omoluabi groups could not wrestle the governorship ticket from Oyetola during party’s primary leading to the 2022 off-cycle governorship election in the State, they quickly drew back and withdrawn from the party’s activities. When they re-emerged, it was with the opposition candidate, Mr. Ademola Adeleke.
The experience of the 2018 election that pitied Aregbesola’s candidate, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti of ADP with Iyiola Omisore of SDP, Jackson Adeleke of PDP and Oyetola of APC together has taught the maverick political strategist a lesson. Obviously, Adeoti cannot pull through if fielded again. Then his next move was shocking. Aregbesola and his troops decided to deployed their political weight behind Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). He won.
Not many people were fooled when known acolytes of the former Minister started mobilizing for Adeleke. APC made faint attempt to mend fences. But it was rather too little or too late or both. Efforts by notable personalities, including the renown cleric, Papa Enoch Adejare Adeboye, an Ifewara Ijesaland born General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, (RCCG), the Ooni of Ile Ife, Oba Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi, and others ended with naught.
Responses to all these attempts to thaw the raging rift were not encouraging. It was apparent by the body languages of the main actors that the two main combatants are done with each other. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu seemed apparently, tired of Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola and vice-versa. Nothing seemed pulling the mutual confidence again. Aregbesola became bitter, enraged. And he let loose his anger, albeit, without restrain.
On the day of the election, the Minister was out of the country but apparently was keenly watching and monitoring events from home. But very early the second day, while the results started pouring in and Adeleke of PDP was edging Oyetola clearly in all the local governments, someone in his team haphazardly released a tweet that not few consider irrational. Although the tweet was quickly pulled down and disclaimed, certainly not a few had saved, or screenshot it. The “Osun Le Tente” tweet (Osun on top) will remain in the remembrance of many leaders for a long time to come.
Also, in the lead up to the APC’s presidential primaries, where thirteen aspirants slugged it out with Tinubu for the Presidential ticket, although Aregbesola was not in the fray, yet his hands were prominently seen and felt throughout the campaign.
While the campaign was gathering steam, Aregbesola was in Ijebu Jesa. He needed to meet his TOP members. A woman loyalist who claimed she attended the well-attended meeting recalled to www.focusmagazineonline.com the hard words he deployed while describing Bola Tinubu.
This many damaging rumours that later emanated from the Ijebu Jesa’s meeting apparently hurt Bola Tinubu and his supporters to no end. It was at the period when a picture of him was trending. He had visited a former Military President in his residence in Minna and the paramount ruler of Ijebuland, Awujale of Ijebu Ode, Oba Sikiru Adetona, when for whatever reasons, a patch of wetness was observed on his lower backside when standing up. This was translated by detractors to mean uncontrollable blader, an illness often associated with old age or panicking.
However, Ahmed Tinubu would eventually emerged the winner of the election and inaugurated the sixteenth President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. And ever since Aregbesola has been in the political wilderness, operating on a thin thread, occasionally test running various strategies to reestablish himself.
He has been seen variously hobnobbing with the government of Ademola Adeleke, the Osun State Governor, and also, had appeared in open drive along major streets both in Oshogbo and Ilesa. But these political stunts were not enough to fetch him any huge dividends.
But while all seemed stable a bit, the Osun State chapter of the APC slammed him with a suspension, over allegations of anti-party activities. The suspension, which takes immediate effect, is pending the outcome of disciplinary proceedings initiated by the state’s party leadership.
The decision to suspend the former Governor followed a request from the Ilesa East Local Government APC Executive Committee, which petitioned the state party chairman, Tajudeen Lawal, to take action against Aregbesola, citing his alleged involvement in actions that undermined the APC as a party.
The committee, in a letter, accused Ogbeni Aregbesola of promoting factionalism and colluding with opposition parties, among other allegations.
Responding to the request, the Osun State APC Executive Committee notified the party’s national leadership, represented by APC National Chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, of its decision to suspend Aregbesola and to establish a disciplinary panel to investigate the charges.
The resolution, dated October 22, titled “Resolution Suspending Rauf Aregbesola for Anti-Party Activities and Constituting a Disciplinary Committee,” was signed by Osun APC Chairman Lawal and Secretary Kamar Olabisi. The document outlined the allegations and Aregbesola’s suspension based on Article 21 of the APC Constitution.
“Following complaints of anti-party activities levelled against Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola by the Ilesa East Local Government Executive Committee, the State Executive Committee (SEC), after reviewing the allegations and in accordance with the powers vested in it by Article 21(3)(vi)(c) of the party’s Constitution, hereby suspends Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola from the party pending the outcome of an investigation,” the statement partly read.
The charges against Aregbesola include, factionalizing the APC by forming the Omoluabi Caucus splinter group; allegedly collaborating with opposition parties to destabilize the APC in Osun State; publicly criticizing party leaders, including President Bola Tinubu, Chief Bisi Akande, and former Osun Governor, Gboyega Oyetola; refusing to participate in or support APC activities within the state; and refusing to vote for the party since the 2019 general elections.
The committee will deliver its findings and recommendations to the state executive within 14 days. It also issued a formal notice to Aregbesola, inviting him to appear and defend himself against the allegations.
In a follow-up letter dated October 24 and signed by Osun APC Disciplinary Committee Secretary, Waheed Adediran, the former governor was given 48 hours to respond to the allegations in writing.
Sources at the party’s secretariat in Oshogbo revealed to www.focusmagazineonline.com that the former Minister had simply spurned all the letters sent to him.
When www.focusmagazineonline.com contacted him on his WhatsApp contact, for an interview, he simply reply “Thanks. No, please”
Many of his men who were suspended by the Osun chapter of APC however, denied receiving any letter of suspension from the party.
His men in Alimosho, Lagos State were also not willing to talk to the press. Alhaji Abdullahi Ayinde Enilolobo, his man Friday, refused to talk nor comments when contacted. He did not reply to all our messages to him.
But his troops in Osun State are boiling, not relenting in stating his case. Mr. Kunle Ige too was suspended by the party since August of 2023. But he told www.focusmagazineonline.com then that he was not aware of his suspension as he was not officially served any letter suspending him from the party.
However, many of the associates of the former Governor in Oshogbo were particularly irked by the recent developments. One of them, a former senior official of Ogbeni Aregbesola’s government revealed to www.focusmagazineonline.com that he was part of all the reconciliatory efforts to douse the tension between the two combatants, President Bola Tinubu and Ogbeni Aregbesola. But he noted sadly that “it appeared he (President Tinubu) is no longer interested in having Aregbesola around him”
Blunt and bold to a fault, Kunle Ige refused to comment on the suspension of Aregbesola. “No comment on the suspension… that’s their business…”, he blurted out when contacted by www.focusmagazineonline.com.
On the plans by some of Aregbesola’s supporter to announce their new political home this December, a former aide declared that “Ogbeni has not categorically given anybody any date…. But obviously he has his plans for the future politically especially for Osun…. The talk of December is because there is a third party option being planned … which might come on stream then… and it is a national one”.
The aide declared the rumoured adoption of Labour Party (LP) as “rubbish… LP was never was on the cards..”.
When asked pointedly why was it difficult for Aregbesola and Tinubu to settle their rift, considering the fact that Aregbesola was the de facto leader of Tinubu’s political block before the fall out, he insisted that “you should ask Asiwaju that question…”
Another associate who spoke to www.focusmagazineonline.com explained further that it “took Ogbeni a while to realise that they had been waging a war against him since 2017..”
He denied that the feud had its roots in the Moshood Adeoti versus Gboyega Oyetola’s struggle for the succession of Ogbeni Aregbesola. He said “well… certain things are now coming to light that shows that they had wanted to cut him (Ogbeni Aregbesola) to size since then (2017). They just wanted him to finish his term and step aside”.
With a despairing note, he declared that “I think that door (to any reconciliation) is finally closed”.
According to him, “Asiwaju is not interested in any reconciliation, since if he ever was, this wouldn’t have been an issue”.
He revealed that he had “been deeply involved in the past in trying to resolve the rift, but clearly Asiwaju isn’t interested”.
In Osun State, not many supporters of Ogbeni Aregbesola is discreet, about his next political moves. A former local government chairman told www.focusmagazineonline.com angrily that “God willingly by December, our Symbol, Rauf Aregbesola, will unveil the new party we are moving to”.
He also declared that “the people in APC, especially Tinubu, doesn’t need him in the party again, likewise the Oyetola’s camp in Osun. So we leave their party for them”.
www.focusmagazineonline.com ©December 2024
Featured
4 youths Perish in River Osun after Granny’s funerals
Published
1 month agoon
November 12, 2024By
FocusMagThe tranquillity and calmness of the sleepy, but rustic community of Oke Imesi, Ekiti West Local Government, Ekiti State, were ruptured early Sunday morning when four young boys were mysteriously drowned in the River Osun, along the Oke Imesi, Ido Ile and Ikoro road.
The four young boys, aged between 24 and 27, were said to be in the town to attend the final funeral rites of the grandmother of two of them.
When www.focusmagazineonline.com correspondent visited the town, people were seen in groups discussing the ugly incident in hushed tones.
Generally, silence and unease calm pervaded the atmosphere, even up to the Palace of the traditional ruler, Owa Ooye.
Eye witnesses disclosed to www.focusmagazineonline.com that two of the boys, Mr. Gabare and an unidentified friend, had followed their friends, Mr. Samson Anisere and his cousin, Mr. Leye Adeoti, to celebrate the final funeral rites for late Mrs. Anisere, who hailed from Obanla Compound, Oke Imesi.
Our correspondent learnt that the boys decided to go and swim in the river around 11:45 am, since they had decided not to embark on the journey back to Lagos on Sunday. The funerals were done on Saturday, November 9.
All through Monday, the traditional institution of the town were busy with offering of sacrifices and performing all necessary rituals to appease the god of river and to prevent a reoccurring of such ugly incident.
According to tradition, the corpses must be bury by the bank 0f the river and must be done without delay.
Meanwhile, the remains of the four boys were buried by the river’s bank on Monday evening, after consultation with all the families of the bereaved and necessary police report obtained by the community.
www.focusmagazineonline.com ©November, 2024
Featured
Ilobu Community Mourns late COAS, Lagbaja, suspends celebrations
Published
1 month agoon
November 7, 2024By
FocusMagThe passing of the immediate past Chief of Army Staff, Lt. General Taoheed Abiodun Lagbaja has thrown the ancient community of Ilobu, in Irepodun local Government area of Osun State into deep mourning.
“We are downcast and in sorrow. He is not just the son of the soil, but one of the shinning stars of the entire Yoruba race. If you go round the community, you will see a community that is in deep sorrow”, Oba Olaniyan muttered.
The community was in the thick of hosting the 2024 Ilobu Day celebration slated for November 9, when the sad news filtered in that their most prominent son, General Lagbaja has passed in in a private hospital in Lagos, Lagos State.
“Ilobu is a very happy town, but this morning, the sun suddenly snatched away from our sky.”
But in a twist, Oba Olaniyan told newsmen that the Ilobu Development Union executives had an emergency meeting, where they decided that Ilobu Day 2024 celebration be suspended indefinitely.
www.focusmagazineonline.com gathered authoritatively that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu spared nothing to save the live of the gallant infant Officer. He was said to have instructed that all necessary medical facilities should extended to him while on sick bed.
The traditional ruler of Ilobuland, Oba Ashiru Olaniyan, the hometown of late Lt. Gen. Lagbaja, was short of words when a correspondent of the Nigerian News Agency (NAN) visited his palace Tuesday afternoon, shortly after the confirmation of his passing by the Federal Government.
The traditional, who was seen in a deep mourning mood when the NAN correspondent visited his palace in Ilobu, directed the National President of the Ilobu-Asake Development Union, Oluremi Salako, to speak on his behalf.
He said that the town was planning its annual “Ilobu 2024 Day” slated for this coming Saturday (November 9) before the sad news of Lagabaja’s death filtered in.
www.focusmagazineonline.com © November 2024
Trending
-
Main Story2 years ago
BREAKING: Liz Truss resigns as UK prime minister
-
News2 years ago
Sports: Messi misses out on Ballon d’or, Oshoala, Adeyemi in female, junior lists.
-
Sports1 year ago
UCL format to change for 24/25 season: groups, knockout, league table
-
Business2 years ago
Currency Redesign: Emefiele Unperturbed As Nigerians Groan in Pains
-
Featured2 years ago
Politics of Forced Congratulatory Messages Over Osun Guber Election
-
Main Story1 year ago
Real Reasons Makinde Refuses To Announce New Alaafin
-
News2 years ago
BREAKING: Phyna is BBNaija season 7 winners
-
Economy2 years ago
CBN’s Change of Naira Shocks Nigerians, EFCC Hail Moves Clampdown on Currency Hoarders