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2023 Presidential Election: Tinubu leads Atiku, Obi in Battle for the Soul of Nigeria



  • Amidst Tension, Nigerians Go to Polls
  • APC’s Tinubu Ahead

 Amidst the raging tension and bated apprehension caused by the cash and fuel supply  crunch in the country, come Saturday (February 25), the 93.4 million Nigerians registered voters, shall thronged to the 176,846 polling units in the country, to cast their votes to determine who succeeds the out-going President, Federal Republic of Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari (GCFR) amongst the twenty three candidates that will appear on the ballot papers for the presidential election.

According to a release by the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC), there are 18 presidential candidates for the 2023 general elections. And for the National Assembly elections, 1,101 candidates are vying for 109 Senatorial seats and 3,122 candidates for House of Representatives seats. 

But presently, the nation is looking forward to the series of the nation elections with baited apprehension. There are tension all over the southern part of the country over the excruciating pains being caused by inability to access cash by depositors, and the cut-throat struggle to get fuel at filling stations. However, since January 31, when the old currency notes of 200, 500 and 1,000 denominations were to ceased as legal tender till date, the nation has been wallowing in excruciating cash crisis. To further worsen the situation, Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), fuel, became as scarce commodity at gas stations. The crises caused by the acute shortage of supply of the two vitally essential commodities are yet to abate as the electorates prepare to troop out to the 176,846 polling units in the country to elect the successor to President Muhammadu Buhari, the current 474 members of the two chambers of the National Assembly. The Senate has 109, while the lower Chamber, the House of Representatives has 365 members.

By Tuesday (21 February) preparations for the general elections reached a feverish point with the release of the numbers of polling agents and collation centre agents as submitted to the Commission by each party by the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC). 

Of the twenty-three registered political parties, only eighteen submitted list of polling agents and collation centre agents. A total list of 1,574,301 party polling unit agents and 68,057 collation agents to INEC. The Commission revealed lists each party as follows:

APC deployed 176,223 PUAs and 9,581 CAs; 

PDP have 176,558 PUAs and 9,539 CAs, 

NNPP 176,200 PUAs and 9,604 CAs.

LP 134,874 PUAs and 4,859 CAs; 

Accord 83,007 PUAs and 3,358 CAs; 

AA 56,459 PUAs and 1,531 CAs; 

AAC 38,779 PUAs and 1,723 CAs; 

ADC 96,043 PUAs and 3,626 CAs; 

ADP 44,516 PUAs and 548 CAs; 

APGA 25,657 PUAs and 933 CAs; 

APM 80,892 PUAs and 3,932 CAs; 

AP 64, 798 PUAs and 2,546 CAs; 

BP 13,544 PUA and 620 CAs; 

NRM 87,014 PUAs and 3,805 CAs; 

PRP 87,562 PUAs and 3,452 CAs; 

SDP 98,313 PUAs and 3,310 CAs; 

YPP 76,199 PUAs and 3,151 CAs; and 

ZLP 57,563 PUAs and 1,939 CAs.

Also, a total number of 27 agents will be at the National Collation Centre. However, APGA and ZLP have no agents attached to the NCC.

While A, AA, ADC, APC, APM, APP, LP, NRM, PDP, and YPP have two party agents each attached to the NCC, others have one.

Kano State had the highest number of 145,393 party polling unit agents; followed by Lagos, 98,646; and Rivers, 79,795.

Already, the eighteen candidates who will appear in the ballot papers for the presidential election have seemingly done their best to sell their party’s manifestoes and personal agenda to the hordes of electorates who daily thronged their campaign venues across the country.

Leading the pack of the candidates is the former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju of Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is flying the flag of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and the former Vice President, Federal Republic of Nigeria, Turakin Adamawa,  Atiku Abubakar, who is contesting under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The front runners also include the former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, of the Labour Party (LP) and the former Governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwakwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

Unlike the previous elections since the advent of the fourth Republic, this coming elections shall be determined more by issues, antecedents, and personalities than party. While the LP is hanging on the quest for the Presidency or Self Determination agenda of the Igbos, the PDP will be banking on the faint records of its sixteen years in government between 1999 and 2015 and the acceptability of its candidate, Atiku Abubakar across the country. the bridges he built while in government as the vice president, the contacts he made, should be handy now in his perhaps, last quest for the presidency.

Rabiu Kwakwanso, the man who leads the Kwakwansiyya Movement, new replica of the old Talakawa Movement of late Mallam Aminu Kanu, will hangs on the effectiveness of the grassroots movement to create a huge impact in the election. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in his own will rely on the massive grassroots goodwill he enjoys across the country. he campaigns hugely successful were based on issues. All these four prominent candidates will go to the polls on Saturday (February 25) hoping to come tops in the battle for Aso Rock occupancy.


North West:

The seven states of the North West lead the voting population by 9 million registered voters. These states usually turn in huge figures, especially in a presidential election. One good point now is that none of the Zone’s prominent offspring is on the ballot paper, therefore, voters here will be at a great liberty to choose a candidate of their choice.

A poll conducted online by conveniently puts the APC’s candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of others in term of visibility and acceptance. His message to the core Northern zone was clear. ‘I will bring back prosperity to the country’, he assured his supporters at all his campaign rallies. Loosely trailing him is the candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar. Atiku, a perennial contestant, is not finding it easy this time around. He was frustrated at the Town Hall meeting with the Northern leaders in Kaduna and had to resort to ethnic card. He blurted ‘the North should vote for a Northerner, and not for a Southerner’.

The NNPP’s candidate, Rabiu Kwakwanso, though from Kano State, is not pulling enough weight outside his Kano and perhaps, Jigawa States. He might not get any reasonable votes from other five states. But with wild rumours circulating days to the commencement of the general election that he has endorsed the candidate of the APC, Bola Tinubu, the political calculus of the two heavily populated States might change radically in favour of the APC. The snag here is that the National Assembly candidates may suffer as the voters may be confused in picking between the candidates of the APC and that of the NNPP. But either way, both Kwakwanso and Tinubu are fully entrenched in the two States. The LP’s candidate with his running mate Yussuf Datti, look jaded politically in the seven core Northern States. They are simply not on ground, hence the returns may by depressing. Other candidates are only there to make up the numbers in North West.

Expect the APC candidate to secure the majority of the over twenty-eight million votes in this zone. Atiku of the PDP will definitely secure the constitutional mandatory twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast, but Obi of LP, may come short in all indices.


Sokoto State:

This is the Soul of the Caliphate. This state dictate the political temperature of the core North, with the highly revered Sultan playing a huge role in who becomes the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.  

Of the three Senatorial seats in the State, APC looks set to capture two while conceding the other one to the rival PDP. Of the eleven seats of the House of Representatives, APC may garner more than eight, leaving the remnants for Atiku. Atiku will expectedly pick the constitutional mandatory twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast here.

Sokoto State: APC


Kebbi State:

Kebbi is a sister State to Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara States. It shares the same philosophy with these States, hence may go the way of the other States in the zone. Atiku will do very well here. He is expected to cross the twenty-five per cent mark here.

Kebbi State: APC


Katsina State:

This is the home of the President and National Leader of the APC, Muhammadu Buhari. The State looks safe for the ruling APC. The party should win the three Senate seats comfortably and also cleared all the sixteen House of Representatives seats.

While Tinubu is expected to win here, Atiku too will do well and expectedly will pick the constitutional mandatory twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast here.

Katsina State: APC


Zamfara State:

APC suffered in the last election in this State when the Supreme Court disqualified all its candidates after winning the elections. The scars of that judicial decision is still hurting, therefore expect the party to carry out an electoral onslaught against the PDP in the State. The three Senatorial seats and all the seven House of Representatives seats may go to APC, while Tinubu will secure the majority votes in the presidential election.

Zamfara State: APC


Kaduna State:

Petit El Rufai, the out-going Governor of the State is known to suffer fool gladly. He is a political battler that is most combatively ruthless when it comes to electoral contest. Although he is not on the ballot paper, but expect him to ruthlessly mobilise for his candidate, Tinubu. Save for the Southern Kaduna axis, he will surley deliver all the available seats in his Kaduna State.

APC will win two of the three Senatorial seats and eight out of the fifteen House of Representatives seat in the State. The presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu will comfortably lead others in this State too.

Kaduna State: APC


Kano State:

Kano State is only second to Lagos State in numbers of registered voters. The Kano 6,026,850 strong registered voters can intimidate any contestant. Both APC, PDP and NNPP are fully on ground here. 

Dr. Rabiu Kwakwanso may not be popularly spread across the thirty-six States of the federation, but is fabulously grounded in the forty-four local government areas of Kano State. The Kwakwansiyya Movement, which he leads is a grassroots movement and is deeply rooted among the talakawas. The only doubt in this State is the percentage of the votes Kwakwanso will garner, not that anyone will come near him. The three Senatorial seats and twenty-four Federal House of Representatives seats will be shared between APC and NNPP. But expect Tinubu to muster enough votes to secure the constitutional mandatory twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast in the State.

Kano State: NNPP


Jigawa State:

Jigawa State is a sister State to Kano State. This State feeds from many of the developments in Kano and shares a lot in common with the people. The Kwakwasiyya Movement is equally very strong here in Jigawa State. Expect another robust landslide victory for Rabiu Kwakwanso here and the three Senatorial seats, but the eleven seats in the Federal House of Representatives may be shared with the rampaging army of APC. Tinubu to secure the necessary twenty-five per cent here too.

Jigawa State: NNP


North East:


Bornu State

Bornu is the home State of Senator Kassim Shetima. He was also a former Governor of the State. He is extremely popular and widely acceptable amongst his Kanuri people. His choice as the running mate of the APC’s presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu is strategic. He has locked down the two States of Borno and Yobe for his party.

APC is expected to win all the three Senatorial seats in the State and perhaps, all the eleven House of Representatives seat in the State. And the icing on the cake, Tinubu is expected to make a bold claim on the upper level per centage of the presidential election votes.

Bornu State: APC


Yobe State

Like Bornu State, the influence of Kassim Shettima will spread into Yobe State. All the three Senatorial seats plus the six House of Representatives seats are sure bets for APC.

Yobe State: APC


Adamawa State

Atiku Abubarkar has not lost any election in his State since the inception of the Fourth Republic. He may continue the tradition in the coming election. Two of the three Senatorial seats and at least, five of the eight House of Representatives seats are sure locked down for Atiku and PDP, while others shall go to APC. Except there is a surprise from APC, PDP will reihn supreme in the State. Although, Tinubu will get the mandatory twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast in the State, Obi and Kwankwanso may make the mark.

Adamawa State: PDP


Bauchi State

Bauchi is not known  for its fanatical support for any party. PDP had ruled the State before it fell into the hands of APC, and back in the folds of PDP again. This time around, no one can project effectively into the voting pattern of the State. But it is a straight battle between APC and PDP, with PDP having a slight edge. The three Senatorial seats will be shared two-to-one, while the twelve House of Representatives seats will be shared equally. Obi and Kwankwaso may not may the cut here too.

Bauchi State: too close to call


Gombe State

Gombe State is never operate in isolation of Bauchi and Adamawa States politically. The State is swinging politically days to the presidential election. Both the APC and PDP are expected to slug it out intensely in the State.

All the National Assembly seats in the States will be shared between APC and PDP, with PDP having a slight edge in the six House of Representatives seats. Both Tinubu and Atiku are expected to make the twenty-five per cent, while Obi and Kwankwanso may not make much.

Gombe State: Too close to call


Taraba State

Taraba State is the only predominantly Christian State in that part of the North Central. However, how Obi maximises his advantages there is yet to be seen. But certainly, both Atiku and Tinubu are expected to make a strong showings in the State.

Taraba State: Too close to call


North Central:


The politics of the North Central zone of the country is quite nebulous. While at some point, it is tied to the Northen interests, and at the same time, they pursue different agenda from the North. The Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC may not appeal that much to them, while Atiku candidature may also not excite them, but many in the zone are sceptical of Peter Obi and his LP. In Benue Sate, the Governor, Samuel Ortom has endorsed Peter Obi, but Kwara and Kogi seem decidedly behind the aspiration of Bola Tinubu of APC. Overall, APC may prevail in the zone ahead of Peter Obi with Atiku trailing behind.


Niger State:

Niger State is traditionally a PDP’s State, but recent happenings in the State may change the voting pattern of the people. Both APC and PDP are expected to share the three Senatorial seats available, while the ten House of Representatives seats will be equally shared between the two parties.

Both Tinubu and Atiku will make the twenty-five percent cut in the State.

Niger State: APC


Plateau State:

Plateau State may offer a different way of voting come Saturday. Presently, APC controls the State, but anything may happen, with the scary Muslim-Muslim ticket of the party.

Expect a tough battle from this State.

The three Senatorial seats and the eight House of Representatives seats will definitely be shared by the three frontline parties.

Plateau: Undecided


Benue State:

Benue State is on another planet. Governor Samuel Ortom has turned back on his G-5 colleagues to endorsed LP’s Peter Obi. But APC continue to wax stronger in the State. 

Expect a tough battle from this State.

The three Senatorial seats and the eleven House of Representatives seats will definitely be shared by the three frontline parties.

Benue: Undecided


Kogi State:

Kogi is for APC to loose. All the three Senatorial seat s and nine House of Representatives seats are within their reach if all t’s are crossed and I’s are dotted.

Tinubu may even denied Atiku and Obi the twenty-five per cent here

Kogi State: APC


Kwara State:

Kwara State is going to present an interesting scenario come this Saturday election. Former Governor Bukola Saraki is very determined to make a great comeback into the political Soul of the people. He has mobilized folks from all over the State. Meanwhile the O To Ge crusaders, led by the incumbent Governor Abdul Razak is not relenting however. The Governor has done very well in his first four years in Office. How Ilorin people respond to the messages of both camps will determine where the pendulum of victory swings. Kwara offers both APC and PDP will dig it out here.

The three Senatorial seats may be split two-to-one in favour of APC, while the eight House of Representatives seats will also be shared between the two camps. Expect APC to be on top. But Atiku will surely make the required twenty-five per cent here.

Kwara State: APC


Nasarawa State

This is a State that feeds largely from happenings in the FCT. All the three frontline parties will show strong presence here.

The National Assembly seats will be shared between APC, PDP and LP may take a share from the five House of Representatives seats.

Nasarawa State: Too close to call


South South:

Edo State:

Edo State used to be a sure PDP State until the emergence of former Governor Adams Oshiomole on the platform of CAN. Adams transited seamlessly to Governor Godwin Obaseki until the crisis that split the duo and Obaseki ported to PDP. How Oshiomole will regain the State is the question on the lips of keen watchers and analysts. Now with Peter Obi and his LP in the fray, one should expect a tough battle in Edo between the three frontline parties.  

The National Assembly seats may end up in the bags of the more dominant APC and PDP, but the nine Lower Chambers’ seats, will surely be shared among the three parties.

The three presidential candidates may end up picking the mandatory twenty-five per cent requirement in this State.

Edo State: Too close to call


Delta State:

Delta State may end becoming a battleground between the three parties: APC, PDP and LP. The three parties have strong personalities from the State. Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, running mate to Atiku Abubarkar if the incumbent Governor, Olu Omo Agege is a strong Senator, while Dr. Pat Utomi is a strong voice in LP. But expect PDP and APC to outshine others.

The three Senatorial seats and the ten House of Representatives seats will be shared between APC and PDP.

Tinubu, Obi and Atiku may make the required twenty-five per cent here too.

Delta State: Too close to call


Cross Rivers State:

Before the PDP sent its presidential ticket up North, Cross Rivers State was a fortress of sort for the party. But after the emergence of a northerner as the party’s flag bearer, many southerners became lukewarm to the party. This thinking will definitely dictate whatever happens in Cross Rivers State on Saturday. There may be a huge switch from PDP to either APC or LP.

All the National Assembly seats will be hotly competed for by the three parties. While all the presidential candidates will be hopeful of securing the much needed twenty-five per cent.

Cross Rivers State: Too close to call


Akwa Ibom State:

Akwa Ibom State may follow the footsteps of neighbouring Cross Rivers in the coming elections. But here the two major parties, PDP and APC have internal issues. How the two managed their internal affairs will determine where victory songs will be loudest come Sunday morning.

The three Senatorial and ten House of Representatives seats will be shared between APC and PDP.

Both APC and PDP to make the necessary twenty-five per cent here.

Akwa Ibom State: Too close to call


Rivers State:

Rivers State presents a most interesting scenario going into this year’s general elections. The State Governor, Nyesom Wike has been in a combative mood since he lost the presidential ticket at the Convention Ground in Abuja in June 2022. He remains inconsolable and he has infected the party with the virus. Now that he has endorsed the APC’s presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, all players and stakeholders wait with bated apprehension to see what plays out in the State. While Wike gravitated towards Tinubu, old war colleagues, Rotimi Ameachi and Peterside Dakuku seem to have cooled off, how the two opposite flanks play off on Saturday will an interesting watch for all.

No one can say for sure who gets what now. But expect both APC and PDP to have a strong showing in Rivers State. The thirteen House of Representatives seats may go either way of the two parties, same with the three Senatorial seats. But surely, Obi, Atiku and Tinubu will come good in getting the required twenty-five per cent of the presidential votes here.

Rivers State: Undecided


Bayelsa State:

But for the Supreme Court ruling that nullified the election of Dr. Diri of the APC as the Governor of the State, APC would have been in firm control of the tiny Oil rich State now. But still expect APC to do extremely well in the coming elections.

The three Senatorial seats and six House of Representatives seats will be for APC to loose.

Tinubu will dominate the State with Atiku getting the much needed twenty-five per cent.

Bayelsa State: APC


South East:

If the admonition of a former Governor of Anambra State, Dr. Chris Ngige is to be read in tandem with that of the current Governor of the State, Dr. Charles Soludo, the South Easterners will be more circumspect in their choice of who to vote for come Saturday. Peter Obi is the only prominent candidate from the South East zone and he is expected to benefit from  the people’s long agitation for the presidency. He may enjoy some block voting, but be rest assured that both Ebonyi and Imo states may spring some surprises, while Enugu States looks undecided.  Abia State may go the way of PDP, leaving only Anambra and maybe Enugu for Obi and his LP to roam freely.

Aside the much publicised treatise by Soludo urging Obi to reconsider his presidential bid now to allow a better opportune time for the East, Chris Ngige has this to say: “I have carefully studied and re-studied the agenda of the Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi ahead of the 2023 election and found nothing other than a mere packaged deceitful strategy to deceive Nigerians.

“We are talking about political structures here and Labour Party are out there spreading lies upon lies against the ruling of President Muhammadu Buhari who happens to be the best President Nigeria has ever produced. 

“A vote for Peter Obi based on the Nigerian political calculation is just a waste of votes and time and will definitely amount to nothing. The earlier our people realize that Peter Obi’s agenda represents everything fraud and deceit, the better for them all. 


Anambra State:

Whatever another former Governor of the State Chris Ngige might say is immaterial here. The LP will certainly do well in Anambra State. This is the LP candidate, Peter Obi’s home State. He was a Governor here for eight years, between 2007 and 2015. But interestingly, neither his successor, Willie Obiano nor his hordes of aides who worked with him while he was the Governor had come out to offer a snipe of his administrative savvy while in charge of the affairs of the State. To further compound his electoral woes in the State, the incumbent Governor, Charles Soludo of PDP, did released a damning expose on his presidential bid late last year. The ripples generated by the expose are yet to totally pale out.  

But all the same, LP will secure at least two of the Senatorial seats in the State and may corner the majority of the eleven House of Representatives seats. Expect Obi to win a majority votes in the State, while Atiku and Tinubu may struggle to secure the mandatory twenty-five per cent votes in the State.

Obi may deny other candidates the much needed twenty-five per cent of the votes in the presidential election here.

Anambra State: LP


Enugu State:

Enugu is another State that shared the same political philosophy with Anambra State. The cries of the Igbo marginalisation is loudest here.

Of the three Senatorial seats, expect LP to corner at least two, while PDP will slug it out with APC for the third seat. However, the PDP candidate, Dr. Ken Nnamani had endorsed Tinubu of the APC for the presidential election. The eight House of Representatives seats will be shared by the three parties.

Obi may also deny other candidates the much needed twenty-five per cent of the votes in the presidential election here.

Enugu State LP


Imo State:

Imo is alongside Ebonyi are the most complicated States in the South East zone. With a very strong APC presence and the Governors of the two States belonging to APC, both LP and PDP may find it hard in those States.

Both the Eastern solidarity may give the slight edge to Peter Obi of LP. It is PDP’s Atiku that will suffer untold humiliation in those two States.

The three Senatorial seats and the ten House of Representatives seats of the National Assembly seats will be shared between APC and LP and PDP.

Obi may also deny other candidates the much needed twenty-five per cent of the votes in the presidential election here.


Imo State: LP


Ebonyi State:

Ebonyi State will suffer the same fate with Imo. The State Governor Ugwuanyi is an APC campaigner and with the massive infrastructural impact of the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration in the State, APC may not have much problem securing the much needed twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast. Also the National Assembly seats will be hotly contested for by both the LP and APC.

Obi may not be able to deny Tinubu the much needed twenty-five per cent of the votes in the presidential election here.

Ebonyi State: Too close to call


Abia State:

Despite his membership of the G-5 Governors led by the Rivers State Governor, Governor Ikpeazu of Abia State cannot afford to rock the boat of his party, PDP, because of his second term bid. Locally he has the likes of moneybags like former Governor Uzor Kanu to deal with, so he has to thread more carefully. 

The three Senatorial seats and the eight House of Representatives seats of the National Assembly seats will be shared between APC and LP and PDP.

Obi may fail to deny other candidates the much needed twenty-five per cent of the votes in the presidential election here.

Abia State: Too close to call


South West:

Yoruba land may be turned into an electoral battle ground on Saturday. This is the most politically exposed and enlightened zone in the country.  and all the major candidates have a good footholds in the zone. The Obi-dients movement is more pronounced in Lagos area than in the core eastern zone. Also, because of the preponderance of media houses and the exposure to better news in the zone, voters are more likely to be discernible than in other less enlightened and exposed zones.

Traditionally, the zone have been known to vote enblock. And they are known to choose intelligently, based on rapports with contestants. These will definitely worked in favour of Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC and Atiku Abubakar of PDP. Peter Obi is only known in Lagos area. 

Another strong point  in Tinubu’s favour is his adoption by both the South West Leaders of Thought led by Bishop Ayo Ladigbolu and the Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE). While a faction of the Committee of Afenifere led by Pa Ayo Adebanjo endorsed Peter Obi of LP, another faction led by Pa Rueben Fasoranti has also endorsed Tinubu. findings in mainland States of Ekiti, Ondo and Osun were shocking. Even in Oyo, it is a straight showdown between Atiku and Tinubu. Peter Obi is not on ground at all. He was not even known in a lot of areas visited by our correspondents. 

The zone by our findings is clearly a battleground between Tinubu and Atiku, with Obi making an unsurprising strong showing in Lagos State. 

Despite the vile and bitter campaigns of the PDP in these States,  at the end of the voting exercise, the APC presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu and majority of its Senatorial and House of Representatives candidates, will comfortably emerged ahead of others. 


Lagos State:

Since the inception of the Fourth Republic, this Sate has been glued with the APC and its tendencies AD, AC, ACN and have been winning comfortably. The State can easily be referred to as the base of the APC politics.

APC is expected to cleared all the three Senate seats on offer in this Sate plus all the twenty-four House of Representatives seats. The party inn the State is firmly rooted in traditional, cultural and social  institutions of the people of the State. The various voting structures are all rooting for the ‘City Boy’, the presidential candidate of the APC. Surprisingly, many bitter critics of Tinubu have aligned with his presidential aspiration. Chief Bode George being one of them.

Also the firm performance of the Governors of the State from Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), Mr. Akinwumi Ambode and the present Jide Sanwo-Olu is giving the party an edge. Few local government areas that usually give APC headaches in the past have now split between Obi of LP and Atiku of PDP. This will definitely gave APC an edge.

Neither PDP nor LP or the NNPP have anything to campaign with in the State, except the nebulous reference to Tinubu and his properties. Besides, none of them have any structure that can with stand APC in the State.

The  7,155,920 registered voters in the State is the highest in the country and the majority are rooting for their former Governor, the ‘City Boy’, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The three Senatorial seats and twenty-four House of Representatives seats are for APC to loose. 

Obi may get the necessary twenty-five per cent here because of the huge population of Igbos, and some dissidents youths, but it is going to be APC all the way

Lagos State: APC


Ogun State:

This is the State of the former President of the Federal Republic of Nigeri, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. He has endorsed Peter Obi of Labour Party. can recalled that he vainly endorsed his former vice president, Atiku Abubakar in the run to the 2019’s presidential election. Atiku lost woefully to Muhammadu Buhari in that election. The Sate also parades the sitting vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo (SAN). Pastor Osinbajo was in the State all week leading to the election to mobilize support for his party’s candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Also the siting Governor is from the party.

Despite the crisis between the former Governor of the Sate, Senator Ibikunle Amosun and the incumbent Governor, the party still looks good to secure victory in the State.

Neither PDP nor LP have any known strong backer in the State. Since the death of Senator Buruji Kashamu, PDP in the State has become rudderless and directionless. 

It won’t be any surprising should APC picks all the three senate seats , the nine House of Representatives seats and corner the majority votes in the presidential election.

None of LP and PDP may get the twenty-five per cent here.

Ogun State APC


Ondo State:

another conservative progressive state in the South West is Ondo State. The state fell into the hands of the hands of the PDP in 2003, and by 2007, the progressives had reclaimed it through Segun Mimiko of the then Labour Party in alliance with the Action Congress. 

2023 general elections offer a fresh opportunity for all the parties to test their electoral might in the State. Incumbent Governor Rotimi Akeredolu will be leading his team out for a repeat of the 2019 victory in the State. Expect APC to secure a clean sweep her with the three Senators on offer in the bag and all the nine House of Representatives seats.

Expect a massive landslide victory for Tinubu here. No twenty-five per cent for Obi and Atiku.

Ondo State APC 


Oyo State:

Oyo State traditional is dicey politically. The State has a way of swinging it votes unexpectedly. Now that influential paramount ruler, Oba Lamidi Atanda Adeyemi, Alaafin of Oyo is late, expect other factors to decide where the pendulum of voters swing.

Ibadan naturally, where the highest numbers of the electorates come from will pull its weight. But expect Oke Ogun area and Oyo town in particular to have a say. The Governor of the State, Syi Makinde is having issues with his PDP family, while the APC is also embroiled in its own crisis. The crisis between Bayo Adelabu of Accord Party (AP) and Teslim Folarin of APC notwithstanding, the APC candidates are expected to coast home to victory easily.

The three Senatorial seats will be contested for by both the PDP and APC while the fourteen House of Representatives seats will be shared among the two.

Atiku will make the twenty-five percent here, but Obi has no base, so no hope here. Tinubu all the way

Oyo State APC.


Osun State:

The judgement of the Osun State Governorship Election Tribunal of January 27 effectively took the sail out of the ship of the PDP in the State. The leaders became dispirited and depressed. The embattled Governor, Ademola Adeleke  has been lustreless and rancorous since assuming office in November 27, 2022. The looks to align with the other States in the zone for the presidential election.

With the rumoured Tinubu’s ancestral roots in the State, despite the most virulent campaign against him in some parts  of the State, he looks good for the big pie. APC will surerly win two of the three Senatorial seats, leaving the Ife/Ijesa zone as the battle field. Neither the incumbent Senator, Fadahunsi and the challenger, Famurewa are doing well in the field.  A House of Representatives candidate for the Ijesa North Federal Constituency, Seun Odofin is wonderfully flying the flag of APC in the zone. If APC wins fabulously, it will be due to his hard work and acceptability.

Of the twenty-four House of Representatives seats in the State, APC looks good to bag some twenty odd seats, while the party will remain very competitive in the remaining four areas. Expect Tinubu to coast to a landslide win in his ancestral State.

APC targets should be a clean sweep of the nine House of Representatives seats. Even Ede Federal Constituency should be within the reach. Obokun/Oriade is almost in the bag. The three Senatorial seats are winnable too.

While PDP because of his wife, Titi Abubakar may make the twenty-five per cent, Obi will return an abysmal votes in the coming election.

Osun State APC


Ekiti State:

Ahmed Bola Tinubu while campaigning for the governoship election is Oshogbo, Osun State last July was quoted as saying: ‘May we not labour in vain’. This prayer will be more apt in Ekiti State for all the other parties in the coming general elections. PDP that was known to be very strong in the State because of the presence of the former Governor, Ayo Fayose, is in comatose, while LP is hardly visible in the State. Fayose today has endorsed the presidential aspiration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Both Atiku and Obi have nothing to hold on to here. This thus leaves the State loose for APC to harvest bountiful votes across all the elections. 

Expect APC to corner all the National Assembly seats and a huge landslide in the presidential election. 

Tinubu to deny all other contestants the necessary twenty-five per cent here

Ekiti State APC


Federal Capital Territory0 (FCT), Abuja

The Federal Capital Territory is traditionally a PDP’s strongholds, but with the emergence of Peter Obi in LP, the strong Igbo voting population is expected to shift their allegiance to the LP. PDP is sure the looser here. While APC still retains its core supporters, PDP have lost its own to the LP.

The Senate seat and two House of Representatives seats are up for grabs. Anything may happen here.

FCT: Too close to call (C2023)


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Tinubu’s Bold Moves Against Poverty, Insecurity



The President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu got cranky late Friday (9 June, 2023). He has been working at breathtaking speed all week long. He had held strategic meetings, focusing mainly on how to resurge the flailing economy. He summoned the Security Chiefs to the Presidential Conference Room in Aso Rock to look also at the worrisome state of insecurity in the country. He surely means business.

His task is well defined. He too blurted out at the inaugural dinner later in the day after the swearing-I ceremonies: “Please do not pity me”. He is focus on revving up the economy, stem the dangerous tide of insecurity across the country, bring the spiralling inflation and bring back the laughter and smiles to the faces of the over two hundred million traumatized Nigerians. 

He pledged defiantly at an interactive session with the Royal Fathers under the aegis of the National Council of Traditional Rulers of Nigeria (NCTRN) at the Aso Villa, Friday (9 June) that “any roadblock in the way of the progress of the Nigerian people would be removed by his government”.

The President for the umpteenth time justified the removal of fuel subsidy, saying that the country cannot continue feeding smugglers and acting as Father Christmas to neighbouring countries, saying “the decision to remove fuel subsidy, improve security, create jobs, and sustain the environment”.

In between all these, he was able to squeezed in time to meet the newly elected  parliamentarians, both at the Upper and Lower Chambers of the National Assembly, to moderate boiling tempers over the zoning of the Principal Officers of the National Assembly. Behold the hurricane Asiwaju is on the prowl.

After the meeting with the newly elected parliamentarians, Hon. Amobi Godwin Ogah, a newly elected Labour Party member to represent Isiukwuato/Umunneochi Federal Constituency, Abia State, was aghast. He could not hide his admiration for the President. He told newsmen: “I never knew Tinubu is so intelligent” 

He went further: “This Is my President,  Today is my best day. After listening to him speak today. President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is so intelligent and is prepared to serve this country. I saw the love and hope today”

The President’s avowed determination to frontally combat and crush the twin issues of poverty and insecurity holding down the country by the jugulars. He surely meant business. This crusade he had started with the inaugural address to the nation. He had simply declared: “Now that the subsidy is gone”. He also went further to vowed that that he intended to unify the exchange rate.

The reverberating effects of that simple declarations quickly resonated across the four poles holding the country. it simply jerked everybody up from their lethargy. He had since met with both the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, (CBN), Emmanuel Emefiele and the Managing Director of the NNPCL PLC, Mele Kyari to discuss modalities for achieving these targets.

However, it is not hyperbolic to state that Nigeria’s economy is on the edge of the precipice, if not down there already. This trend, the newly inaugurated President Tinubu fully takes cognizance of in his inaugural address to the nation. The need to revamp the economy is urgent, and pressing. He has started the revamping by halting further subsidies of fuel, a move that have trigger multi-dimensional responses across the country.

Part of the President first step was the call on the members of the European Union to assist Nigeria and Africa in strengthening its security and economic development to alleviate poverty in the continent. The President spoke during a telephone conversation with the President of the European Council, Mr. Charles Michel.

According to President Tinubu, Nigeria and the whole of Africa would require the help and partnership of her friends and development partners like the EU to address the excruciating poverty in the continent.

 While requesting the EU to look at specific areas of security challenge like the Lake Chad and coastal areas, the Nigerian leader promised to remain in contact with the European Union and other member states.

 He said poverty and insecurity were priority areas for his administration and he would do all that is required to address them.

Also, the President has expressly directed the National Economic Council (NEC) led by Vice President Kashim Shettima to device an approach and begin the process of working on interventions to mitigate the impact of subsidy removal on the Nigerians.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPCL) confirmed in Lagos during the week that “once the Dangote Refinery starts pumping out refined petroleum products from late July or early August, the Corporation will cut down on its imports of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol”.

NNPCL is currently the sole importer of petrol into Nigeria, a task which it had shouldered for several years. Other oil marketers stopped importing the product due to their inability to access the United States dollars at the official rate.

The NNPCL also owned 20 per cent stake in the Dangote Refinery. The 650,000 barrels per day single line, crude oil processing refinery was inaugurated on May 22, 2023 by former President, Muhammadu Buhari, who described the facility as a “game-changer” in the World’s oil market.

The promoter, Aliko Dangote stated at the occasion that the refinery would start delivering refined products to the Nigerian market from late July or Early August this year.

When contacted by our correspondent and asked about what would happen to the NNPCL fuel imports programme once the Dangote Refinery began to push out products in August, the national oil firm’s spokesperson, Garba-Deen Muhammad, said emphatically that this would change.

According to him, “NNPC Limited is bringing in products from outside Nigeria as a matter of necessity, not as a matter of choice. We would have preferred that we produce here, refine here and we sell and provide the energy security that the country needs.

“Because of the circumstances that surround our refineries, we cannot allow the country to be grounded. So we have to buy wherever we can get and sell. So if Dangote products are available, why should we not buy from Dangote?

“There is absolutely no reason. And that is the reason why we are interested in the Dangote Refinery. We are co-owners, shouldn’t we do business with our partners rather than do it with other people?”

While President Tinubu faces these hydra-headed demons head-on, certainly heads must roll. There must be scape goats from the mess of the past. After days of speculation, the hammer eventually fell on the CBN Governor, Emefiele Friday (9 June, 2023). The man was on his seat all day, held meetings and closed for the long weekend, Monday (June 12, 2023) being a public holiday, was headed for home. He had hardly settled down when he heard the news of his immediate suspension. 

According to a terse press statement by Willie Bassey, Director of Information Office, of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Emefiele was directed to immediately hand over the affairs of his office to the Deputy Governor (Operations Directorate), who will act as the Central Bank Governor pending the conclusion of investigation and the reforms. 

The suspension, according to the statement is “sequel to the ongoing investigation of his office and the planned reforms in the financial sector of the economy”. 

But in a dramatic twist, minutes after his suspension as CBN Governor, the state secret police (DSS) was alleged to have him. He was said to have been arrested by the men of the DSS late  Friday. 

But prior to CBN’s suspension, the DSS, on December 7, 2022, in an exparte application with reference no: FHC/ABJ/CS/2255/2022, sought an order of the Federal High Court to effect his arrest.

The security agency had accused the embattled CBN Governor of financing terrorism, fraudulent activities and economic crimes of national security dimension.

The Chief Judge of the Federal High Court, Justice J. T Tsoho, however, refused to grant the application of the DSS. The court said such an application should have been accompanied with the presidential approval because of the grave implications for the Nigerian economy if the CBN governor is arrested and detained. But late Friday, he was sent on indefinite suspension and then the arrest.

But on Saturday (10 June, 2023), the service tweet that “currently, Emefiele is not with the DSS”.

While the CBN’s Governor unfolds on, there are also strong speculations about the safety of the job of the Chief Executive Officer of the NNPCL, Mele Kyari at the weekend. It was speculated that the President intended to clean the old rot and refocus and reposition the economy, especially the financial and oil sector.

Later Saturday afternoon the Service released another tweet confirming the arrest of the CBN Governor. 

According to the Service, the DSS has finally confirmed that the suspended CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele is now in their custody.

A tweet from the agency reads: “…DSS hereby confirms that Mr Godwin Emefiele, the suspended Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, is now in its custody for some investigative reasons.

Meanwhile investigations across the country revealed that in less than a fortnight after putting an end into the fuel subsidy regime, reports across the country indicate a mixed reaction by the generality of the people. 

The major hope is that once the Dangote Refinery starts production late July or early August, prices of fuel is expected drastically since there wont be need for US dollars exchange in transactions any longer.

© 2023


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Democracy Day 2023: Full text of President Bola Tinubu’s address



Fellow Nigerians,

  1. It is exactly three decades today that Nigerians went to the polls to exercise their inalienable right to elect a President of their choice to lead the transition from military dictatorship to a representative government of the people.
  2. The abortion, by military fiat, of the decisive victory of Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the June 12, 1993, presidential election, up to that time, the fairest and freest election in the country’s political evolution, turned out, ironically, to be the seed that germinated into the prolonged struggle that gave birth to the democracy we currently enjoy since 1999.
  3. In rising to strongly oppose the arbitrary annulment of the will of the majority of Nigerians as expressed in that historic election, the substantial number of our people who participated in the struggle to de-annul the election signified their fierce commitment to enthroning democracy as a form of government that best ennobles the liberty, the dignity of the individual and the integrity as well as the stability of the polity. The fierce opposition to the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election and the unrelenting pro-democracy onslaught it unleashed was the equivalent of the battle against colonial rule by our founding fathers that resulted in the gaining of Nigeria’s independence in 1960.
  4. Just like the anti-colonial movement, the pro-June 12 vanguard demonstrated, once again, the enduring validity of the 19th century historian, Arnold Toynbee’s eternal postulation, that civilization and societies experience progress as they are forced to respond to challenges posed by the environment. The unjust annulment of a widely acknowledged free and fair election was a challenge that elicited resistance by a resurgent civil society, leading ultimately to the attainment of our ‘second independence’ as exemplified by the return of democratic governance in 1999.
  5. Fellow compatriots, we celebrate a day that has remained a watershed in our nation’s history, not just today, but for every June 12, for the endless future that our beloved country shall exist and wax stronger and stronger, generations of Nigerians will always remind themselves that the democracy that is steadily growing to become the defining essence of our polity was not gifted to us on a silver platter.
  6. We can easily recall the sacrifice and martyrdom of Chief MKO Abiola, the custodian of the sacred mandate that was so cruelly annulled. He sacrificed his life in unyielding, patriotic defence of the ideals of democracy as symbolized in his choice, by his fellow countrymen and women, as their duly-elected President. There was an easier choice for him. It was to forgo the justice of his cause and opt for the path of ease and capitulation in the face of the tyranny of power. To his eternal credit and immortal glory, Abiola said no. He demonstrated the time-tested eternal truth that there are certain ideals and principles that are far more valuable than life itself.
  7. Everyday, on this day, down the ages we will recall the several other heroes of democracy such as Kudirat Abiola, wife of Chief Abiola, who was brutally murdered while in the trenches fighting on the side of the people. We remember Pa Alfred Rewane, one of the heroes of our independence struggle and Major General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua (rtd) who were silenced by the military junta while in pursuit of democracy. They gave their yesterday for the liberty that is ours today.
  8. The point is that we must never take this democracy for granted. We must forever jealously guard and protect it like a precious jewel. For, a people can never truly appreciate the freedoms and rights democracy guarantees them until they lose it.
  9. We have traversed the dark, thorny path of dictatorship before and those who experienced it can readily testify to the unbridgeable gap between the dignity of freedom and the humiliation and degradation of tyranny. True, rancorous debates, interminable wrangling, ceaseless quarrels, bitter electoral contestations may be perceived by some as unattractive features of democracy. But they also testify to its merit and value.
  10. This year, we held the seventh in the cycle of elections that have become sacred rituals of our democratic practice in this dispensation since 1999.


  1. That the polls were intensely contested is in itself positive evidence that democracy is well and alive in our land. It is only natural that even as those who won and experienced victory in the various elections are elated and fulfilled, those who lost are disenchanted and disappointed. But the beauty of democracy is that those who win today can lose tomorrow and those who lose today will have an opportunity to compete and win in the next round of elections.
  2. Those who cannot endure and accept the pain of defeat in elections do not deserve the joy of victory when it is their turn to triumph. Above all, those who disagree with the outcome of the elections are taking full advantage of the constitutional provisions to seek redress in court and that is one of the reasons why democracy is still the best form of government invented by man.
  3. For Chief MKO Abiola, the symbol of this day, in whose memory June 12 became a national holiday, democracy is eternal.
  4. It is about rule of law and vibrant judiciary that can be trusted to deliver justice and strengthen institutions. It has become imperative to state here that the unnecessary illegal orders used to truncate or abridge democracy will no longer be tolerated.
  5. The recent harmonization of the retirement age for judicial officers is meant to strengthen the rule of law, which is a critical pillar of democracy. The reform has just started.
  6. The democracy that will yield right dividends to the people who are the shareholders means more than just freedom of choice and right to get people into elective offices. It means social and economic justice for our people. To the winner of June 12, democracy offers the best chance to fight and eliminate poverty. Thirty years ago, he christened his campaign manifesto, ‘Farewell to Poverty’ because he was convinced that there is nothing divine about poverty. It is a man-made problem that can be eliminated with clearly thought out social and economic policies.
  7. It is for this reason that, in my inauguration address on May 29, I gave effect to the decision taken by my predecessor-in-office to remove the fuel subsidy albatross and free up for collective use the much-needed resources, which had hitherto been pocketed by a few rich. I admit that the decision will impose extra burden on the masses of our people. I feel your pain. This is one decision we must bear to save our country from going under and take our resources away from the stranglehold of a few unpatriotic elements.
  8. Painfully, I have asked you, my compatriots, to sacrifice a little more for the survival of our country. For your trust and belief in us, I assure you that your sacrifice shall not be in vain. The government I lead will repay you through massive investment in transportation infrastructure, education, regular power supply, healthcare and other public utilities that will improve the quality of lives.
  9. The democracy MKO Abiola died for is one that promotes the welfare of the people over personal interests of the ruling class and one where the governed can find personal fulfillment and happiness. That is the hope MKO Abiola ignited throughout our country in 1993.
  10. On this year’s Democracy Day, I enjoin us all to rededicate ourselves to strengthening this form of government of free peoples that has been our guiding light these past 24 years. In particular, those of us who have been privileged to be elected into public offices at various levels in both the executive and legislative arms of government must recommit ourselves to offering selfless service to the people, and delivering concrete democracy dividends in accordance with our electoral promises.
  11. On my part and that of my administration, I pledge anew our commitment to diligently fulfilling every component of our electoral pact with the people – the ‘Renewed Hope’ agenda.
  12. We shall be faithful to truth. Faithful to equity. And faithful to justice. We shall exercise our authority and mandate to govern with fairness, respect for the rule of law, and commitment to always uphold the dignity of all our people.
  13. On this note, I wish us all a happy Democracy Day celebration and pray that the light of liberty shall never be extinguished in our land.
  14. Thank you all and may God continue to bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

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Governance Grounded in Ondo State as Akeredolu Refuses to Hand Over to Deputy 



Governance and all Governmental activities seemed to have grounded to a standstill in Ondo State since the State Governor, Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu (CON, SAN), became indisposed. He has also refused to transmute power to his deputy, despite several pleadings.

The Governor is said to be holed up in his private home in Ibadan, Oyo State capital since he was moved out of Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), where only his trusted aides have access to him.

The Governor according to reliable sources in government circle in Akure, Ondo State was rushed to Germany towards the end of last year for an undisclosed illness. He was said to be in Germany for about two months, before coming back to the country early this year. Upon returning to the country, he was said to had been headed straight for Abuja, where he was said to be “resting”, before moving to Ibadan.

Sources within government circle told that since he was hurriedly driven out of Akure, towards the end of last year, all governmental activities have come to a halt. His close circle was said to be against his transmuting power to his deputy, as stipulated by the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended).

The Deputy Governor, Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa, is said to be in a quandary about happenings in the State Government. Sources disclosed to our correspondent that he had gone to see the ailing Governor in his Ibadan home several times, but was not allowed by the Governor’s aides to see him. Several files needing urgent attention by the Governor are said to have piled up on his table in Ibadan unattended to.

For over a week now there have been some cold rumours circulating in hush tones about the health and condition of the Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu.

The absence became more noticeable when State Governors of the federation had the inaugural meeting with the President, Bola Tinubu in Aso Rock last week at State House, Abuja. At the meeting, it was only the Ondo State Governor that was conspicuously missing. The deputy could not attend. checks in Akure, Ondo State revealed however, that the Governor has refused bluntly to transmute power to his deputy, despite being aware of his health conditions since last year. Sections 189, 190 and  191 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended) clearly stated with the Governor should transmute power to his deputy. 

The man popularly called “Aketi” has been out of circulation since March, immediately the general elections were done with. He was first reported to have gone to Germany for medical attention, but upon return, he made straight for Abuja. He was later said to have been moved from his abode in Abuja to his private home in Ibadan.

These conflicting reports about the condition of the Governor however, took a dangerous turn Saturday (3 June, 2023) when a news blog published reports of his death and someone also circulated a viral picture announcing his death. The State Government however, moved swiftly to dispel the rumours of his death as carried by a news blog.

But learnt that the Governor, according to some very reliable sources very close to him, is said to be in ‘a very critical condition in his private home in Ibadan’, capital of Oyo state. 

His close aides spoken to refused to give more on the ailing condition of the Governor, other than his condition has worsen since last week Friday (2 June 2023) evening. He is said to have become almost incapacitated. 

The Governor, was born on 21 July 1956, known widely as Aketi, is a vibrant lawyer and politician has been in office since 24 February 2017. Another Governorship election is due in October 2024. 

Responding to the rumours of his passing, the Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Richard Olatunde released some video clips of the ailing Governor praising God.

In one of the videos, the Governor was seen dancing and singing. The lines of the lyrics showed governor Akeredolu who was joyous and full of praises to God for keeping him alive

Governor Akeredolu, left the country for Germany shortly after the APC convention in March. When he came back, he relocated to Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), ‘to rest’, before moving down to his house in Ibadan, Oyo State.

He officially wrote the State House of Assembly to take permission before embarking on an annual leave.

His adopted prefix is “Arakunrin”, while his nickname is “Aketi”. He is a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) who became president of the Nigerian Bar Association in 2008. Akeredolu was also a Managing Partner at the law firm of Olujinmi & Akeredolu, which he co-founded with Chief Akin Olujinmi, a former Attorney General and Minister for Justice of Nigeria. On 21 July 2020, he was declared as the Ondo governorship candidate after the primary elections under the platform of the APC. He is the current Governor of Ondo State and doubles as the chairman of Southwest Governors Forum.

© 2023


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