• Amidst Tension, Nigerians Go to Polls
• APC’s Tinubu Ahead

 Amidst the raging tension and bated apprehension caused by the cash and fuel supply  crunch in the country, come Saturday (February 25), the 93.4 million Nigerians registered voters, shall thronged to the 176,846 polling units in the country, to cast their votes to determine who succeeds the out-going President, Federal Republic of Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari (GCFR) amongst the twenty three candidates that will appear on the ballot papers for the presidential election.

According to a release by the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC), there are 18 presidential candidates for the 2023 general elections. And for the National Assembly elections, 1,101 candidates are vying for 109 Senatorial seats and 3,122 candidates for House of Representatives seats. 

But presently, the nation is looking forward to the series of the nation elections with baited apprehension. There are tension all over the southern part of the country over the excruciating pains being caused by inability to access cash by depositors, and the cut-throat struggle to get fuel at filling stations. However, since January 31, when the old currency notes of 200, 500 and 1,000 denominations were to ceased as legal tender till date, the nation has been wallowing in excruciating cash crisis. To further worsen the situation, Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), fuel, became as scarce commodity at gas stations. The crises caused by the acute shortage of supply of the two vitally essential commodities are yet to abate as the electorates prepare to troop out to the 176,846 polling units in the country to elect the successor to President Muhammadu Buhari, the current 474 members of the two chambers of the National Assembly. The Senate has 109, while the lower Chamber, the House of Representatives has 365 members.

By Tuesday (21 February) preparations for the general elections reached a feverish point with the release of the numbers of polling agents and collation centre agents as submitted to the Commission by each party by the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC). 

Of the twenty-three registered political parties, only eighteen submitted list of polling agents and collation centre agents. A total list of 1,574,301 party polling unit agents and 68,057 collation agents to INEC. The Commission revealed lists each party as follows:

APC deployed 176,223 PUAs and 9,581 CAs; 

PDP have 176,558 PUAs and 9,539 CAs, 

NNPP 176,200 PUAs and 9,604 CAs.

LP 134,874 PUAs and 4,859 CAs; 

Accord 83,007 PUAs and 3,358 CAs; 

AA 56,459 PUAs and 1,531 CAs; 

AAC 38,779 PUAs and 1,723 CAs; 

ADC 96,043 PUAs and 3,626 CAs; 

ADP 44,516 PUAs and 548 CAs; 

APGA 25,657 PUAs and 933 CAs; 

APM 80,892 PUAs and 3,932 CAs; 

AP 64, 798 PUAs and 2,546 CAs; 

BP 13,544 PUA and 620 CAs; 

NRM 87,014 PUAs and 3,805 CAs; 

PRP 87,562 PUAs and 3,452 CAs; 

SDP 98,313 PUAs and 3,310 CAs; 

YPP 76,199 PUAs and 3,151 CAs; and 

ZLP 57,563 PUAs and 1,939 CAs.

Also, a total number of 27 agents will be at the National Collation Centre. However, APGA and ZLP have no agents attached to the NCC.

While A, AA, ADC, APC, APM, APP, LP, NRM, PDP, and YPP have two party agents each attached to the NCC, others have one.

Kano State had the highest number of 145,393 party polling unit agents; followed by Lagos, 98,646; and Rivers, 79,795.

Already, the eighteen candidates who will appear in the ballot papers for the presidential election have seemingly done their best to sell their party’s manifestoes and personal agenda to the hordes of electorates who daily thronged their campaign venues across the country.

Leading the pack of the candidates is the former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju of Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is flying the flag of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and the former Vice President, Federal Republic of Nigeria, Turakin Adamawa,  Atiku Abubakar, who is contesting under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The front runners also include the former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, of the Labour Party (LP) and the former Governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwakwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

Unlike the previous elections since the advent of the fourth Republic, this coming elections shall be determined more by issues, antecedents, and personalities than party. While the LP is hanging on the quest for the Presidency or Self Determination agenda of the Igbos, the PDP will be banking on the faint records of its sixteen years in government between 1999 and 2015 and the acceptability of its candidate, Atiku Abubakar across the country. the bridges he built while in government as the vice president, the contacts he made, should be handy now in his perhaps, last quest for the presidency.

Rabiu Kwakwanso, the man who leads the Kwakwansiyya Movement, new replica of the old Talakawa Movement of late Mallam Aminu Kanu, will hangs on the effectiveness of the grassroots movement to create a huge impact in the election. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in his own will rely on the massive grassroots goodwill he enjoys across the country. he campaigns hugely successful were based on issues. All these four prominent candidates will go to the polls on Saturday (February 25) hoping to come tops in the battle for Aso Rock occupancy.

 

North West:

The seven states of the North West lead the voting population by 9 million registered voters. These states usually turn in huge figures, especially in a presidential election. One good point now is that none of the Zone’s prominent offspring is on the ballot paper, therefore, voters here will be at a great liberty to choose a candidate of their choice.

A poll conducted online by www.focusmagazineonline.com conveniently puts the APC’s candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of others in term of visibility and acceptance. His message to the core Northern zone was clear. ‘I will bring back prosperity to the country’, he assured his supporters at all his campaign rallies. Loosely trailing him is the candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar. Atiku, a perennial contestant, is not finding it easy this time around. He was frustrated at the Town Hall meeting with the Northern leaders in Kaduna and had to resort to ethnic card. He blurted ‘the North should vote for a Northerner, and not for a Southerner’.

The NNPP’s candidate, Rabiu Kwakwanso, though from Kano State, is not pulling enough weight outside his Kano and perhaps, Jigawa States. He might not get any reasonable votes from other five states. But with wild rumours circulating days to the commencement of the general election that he has endorsed the candidate of the APC, Bola Tinubu, the political calculus of the two heavily populated States might change radically in favour of the APC. The snag here is that the National Assembly candidates may suffer as the voters may be confused in picking between the candidates of the APC and that of the NNPP. But either way, both Kwakwanso and Tinubu are fully entrenched in the two States. The LP’s candidate with his running mate Yussuf Datti, look jaded politically in the seven core Northern States. They are simply not on ground, hence the returns may by depressing. Other candidates are only there to make up the numbers in North West.

Expect the APC candidate to secure the majority of the over twenty-eight million votes in this zone. Atiku of the PDP will definitely secure the constitutional mandatory twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast, but Obi of LP, may come short in all indices.

 

Sokoto State:

This is the Soul of the Caliphate. This state dictate the political temperature of the core North, with the highly revered Sultan playing a huge role in who becomes the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.  

Of the three Senatorial seats in the State, APC looks set to capture two while conceding the other one to the rival PDP. Of the eleven seats of the House of Representatives, APC may garner more than eight, leaving the remnants for Atiku. Atiku will expectedly pick the constitutional mandatory twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast here.

Sokoto State: APC

 

Kebbi State:

Kebbi is a sister State to Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara States. It shares the same philosophy with these States, hence may go the way of the other States in the zone. Atiku will do very well here. He is expected to cross the twenty-five per cent mark here.

Kebbi State: APC

 

Katsina State:

This is the home of the President and National Leader of the APC, Muhammadu Buhari. The State looks safe for the ruling APC. The party should win the three Senate seats comfortably and also cleared all the sixteen House of Representatives seats.

While Tinubu is expected to win here, Atiku too will do well and expectedly will pick the constitutional mandatory twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast here.

Katsina State: APC

 

Zamfara State:

APC suffered in the last election in this State when the Supreme Court disqualified all its candidates after winning the elections. The scars of that judicial decision is still hurting, therefore expect the party to carry out an electoral onslaught against the PDP in the State. The three Senatorial seats and all the seven House of Representatives seats may go to APC, while Tinubu will secure the majority votes in the presidential election.

Zamfara State: APC

 

Kaduna State:

Petit El Rufai, the out-going Governor of the State is known to suffer fool gladly. He is a political battler that is most combatively ruthless when it comes to electoral contest. Although he is not on the ballot paper, but expect him to ruthlessly mobilise for his candidate, Tinubu. Save for the Southern Kaduna axis, he will surley deliver all the available seats in his Kaduna State.

APC will win two of the three Senatorial seats and eight out of the fifteen House of Representatives seat in the State. The presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu will comfortably lead others in this State too.

Kaduna State: APC

 

Kano State:

Kano State is only second to Lagos State in numbers of registered voters. The Kano 6,026,850 strong registered voters can intimidate any contestant. Both APC, PDP and NNPP are fully on ground here. 

Dr. Rabiu Kwakwanso may not be popularly spread across the thirty-six States of the federation, but is fabulously grounded in the forty-four local government areas of Kano State. The Kwakwansiyya Movement, which he leads is a grassroots movement and is deeply rooted among the talakawas. The only doubt in this State is the percentage of the votes Kwakwanso will garner, not that anyone will come near him. The three Senatorial seats and twenty-four Federal House of Representatives seats will be shared between APC and NNPP. But expect Tinubu to muster enough votes to secure the constitutional mandatory twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast in the State.

Kano State: NNPP

 

Jigawa State:

Jigawa State is a sister State to Kano State. This State feeds from many of the developments in Kano and shares a lot in common with the people. The Kwakwasiyya Movement is equally very strong here in Jigawa State. Expect another robust landslide victory for Rabiu Kwakwanso here and the three Senatorial seats, but the eleven seats in the Federal House of Representatives may be shared with the rampaging army of APC. Tinubu to secure the necessary twenty-five per cent here too.

Jigawa State: NNP

 

North East:

 

Bornu State

Bornu is the home State of Senator Kassim Shetima. He was also a former Governor of the State. He is extremely popular and widely acceptable amongst his Kanuri people. His choice as the running mate of the APC’s presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu is strategic. He has locked down the two States of Borno and Yobe for his party.

APC is expected to win all the three Senatorial seats in the State and perhaps, all the eleven House of Representatives seat in the State. And the icing on the cake, Tinubu is expected to make a bold claim on the upper level per centage of the presidential election votes.

Bornu State: APC

 

Yobe State

Like Bornu State, the influence of Kassim Shettima will spread into Yobe State. All the three Senatorial seats plus the six House of Representatives seats are sure bets for APC.

Yobe State: APC

 

Adamawa State

Atiku Abubarkar has not lost any election in his State since the inception of the Fourth Republic. He may continue the tradition in the coming election. Two of the three Senatorial seats and at least, five of the eight House of Representatives seats are sure locked down for Atiku and PDP, while others shall go to APC. Except there is a surprise from APC, PDP will reihn supreme in the State. Although, Tinubu will get the mandatory twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast in the State, Obi and Kwankwanso may make the mark.

Adamawa State: PDP

 

Bauchi State

Bauchi is not known  for its fanatical support for any party. PDP had ruled the State before it fell into the hands of APC, and back in the folds of PDP again. This time around, no one can project effectively into the voting pattern of the State. But it is a straight battle between APC and PDP, with PDP having a slight edge. The three Senatorial seats will be shared two-to-one, while the twelve House of Representatives seats will be shared equally. Obi and Kwankwaso may not may the cut here too.

Bauchi State: too close to call

 

Gombe State

Gombe State is never operate in isolation of Bauchi and Adamawa States politically. The State is swinging politically days to the presidential election. Both the APC and PDP are expected to slug it out intensely in the State.

All the National Assembly seats in the States will be shared between APC and PDP, with PDP having a slight edge in the six House of Representatives seats. Both Tinubu and Atiku are expected to make the twenty-five per cent, while Obi and Kwankwanso may not make much.

Gombe State: Too close to call

 

Taraba State

Taraba State is the only predominantly Christian State in that part of the North Central. However, how Obi maximises his advantages there is yet to be seen. But certainly, both Atiku and Tinubu are expected to make a strong showings in the State.

Taraba State: Too close to call

 

North Central:

 

The politics of the North Central zone of the country is quite nebulous. While at some point, it is tied to the Northen interests, and at the same time, they pursue different agenda from the North. The Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC may not appeal that much to them, while Atiku candidature may also not excite them, but many in the zone are sceptical of Peter Obi and his LP. In Benue Sate, the Governor, Samuel Ortom has endorsed Peter Obi, but Kwara and Kogi seem decidedly behind the aspiration of Bola Tinubu of APC. Overall, APC may prevail in the zone ahead of Peter Obi with Atiku trailing behind.

 

Niger State:

Niger State is traditionally a PDP’s State, but recent happenings in the State may change the voting pattern of the people. Both APC and PDP are expected to share the three Senatorial seats available, while the ten House of Representatives seats will be equally shared between the two parties.

Both Tinubu and Atiku will make the twenty-five percent cut in the State.

Niger State: APC

 

Plateau State:

Plateau State may offer a different way of voting come Saturday. Presently, APC controls the State, but anything may happen, with the scary Muslim-Muslim ticket of the party.

Expect a tough battle from this State.

The three Senatorial seats and the eight House of Representatives seats will definitely be shared by the three frontline parties.

Plateau: Undecided

 

Benue State:

Benue State is on another planet. Governor Samuel Ortom has turned back on his G-5 colleagues to endorsed LP’s Peter Obi. But APC continue to wax stronger in the State. 

Expect a tough battle from this State.

The three Senatorial seats and the eleven House of Representatives seats will definitely be shared by the three frontline parties.

Benue: Undecided

 

Kogi State:

Kogi is for APC to loose. All the three Senatorial seat s and nine House of Representatives seats are within their reach if all t’s are crossed and I’s are dotted.

Tinubu may even denied Atiku and Obi the twenty-five per cent here

Kogi State: APC

 

Kwara State:

Kwara State is going to present an interesting scenario come this Saturday election. Former Governor Bukola Saraki is very determined to make a great comeback into the political Soul of the people. He has mobilized folks from all over the State. Meanwhile the O To Ge crusaders, led by the incumbent Governor Abdul Razak is not relenting however. The Governor has done very well in his first four years in Office. How Ilorin people respond to the messages of both camps will determine where the pendulum of victory swings. Kwara offers both APC and PDP will dig it out here.

The three Senatorial seats may be split two-to-one in favour of APC, while the eight House of Representatives seats will also be shared between the two camps. Expect APC to be on top. But Atiku will surely make the required twenty-five per cent here.

Kwara State: APC

 

Nasarawa State

This is a State that feeds largely from happenings in the FCT. All the three frontline parties will show strong presence here.

The National Assembly seats will be shared between APC, PDP and LP may take a share from the five House of Representatives seats.

Nasarawa State: Too close to call

 

South South:

Edo State:

Edo State used to be a sure PDP State until the emergence of former Governor Adams Oshiomole on the platform of CAN. Adams transited seamlessly to Governor Godwin Obaseki until the crisis that split the duo and Obaseki ported to PDP. How Oshiomole will regain the State is the question on the lips of keen watchers and analysts. Now with Peter Obi and his LP in the fray, one should expect a tough battle in Edo between the three frontline parties.  

The National Assembly seats may end up in the bags of the more dominant APC and PDP, but the nine Lower Chambers’ seats, will surely be shared among the three parties.

The three presidential candidates may end up picking the mandatory twenty-five per cent requirement in this State.

Edo State: Too close to call

 

Delta State:

Delta State may end becoming a battleground between the three parties: APC, PDP and LP. The three parties have strong personalities from the State. Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, running mate to Atiku Abubarkar if the incumbent Governor, Olu Omo Agege is a strong Senator, while Dr. Pat Utomi is a strong voice in LP. But expect PDP and APC to outshine others.

The three Senatorial seats and the ten House of Representatives seats will be shared between APC and PDP.

Tinubu, Obi and Atiku may make the required twenty-five per cent here too.

Delta State: Too close to call

 

Cross Rivers State:

Before the PDP sent its presidential ticket up North, Cross Rivers State was a fortress of sort for the party. But after the emergence of a northerner as the party’s flag bearer, many southerners became lukewarm to the party. This thinking will definitely dictate whatever happens in Cross Rivers State on Saturday. There may be a huge switch from PDP to either APC or LP.

All the National Assembly seats will be hotly competed for by the three parties. While all the presidential candidates will be hopeful of securing the much needed twenty-five per cent.

Cross Rivers State: Too close to call

 

Akwa Ibom State:

Akwa Ibom State may follow the footsteps of neighbouring Cross Rivers in the coming elections. But here the two major parties, PDP and APC have internal issues. How the two managed their internal affairs will determine where victory songs will be loudest come Sunday morning.

The three Senatorial and ten House of Representatives seats will be shared between APC and PDP.

Both APC and PDP to make the necessary twenty-five per cent here.

Akwa Ibom State: Too close to call

 

Rivers State:

Rivers State presents a most interesting scenario going into this year’s general elections. The State Governor, Nyesom Wike has been in a combative mood since he lost the presidential ticket at the Convention Ground in Abuja in June 2022. He remains inconsolable and he has infected the party with the virus. Now that he has endorsed the APC’s presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, all players and stakeholders wait with bated apprehension to see what plays out in the State. While Wike gravitated towards Tinubu, old war colleagues, Rotimi Ameachi and Peterside Dakuku seem to have cooled off, how the two opposite flanks play off on Saturday will an interesting watch for all.

No one can say for sure who gets what now. But expect both APC and PDP to have a strong showing in Rivers State. The thirteen House of Representatives seats may go either way of the two parties, same with the three Senatorial seats. But surely, Obi, Atiku and Tinubu will come good in getting the required twenty-five per cent of the presidential votes here.

Rivers State: Undecided

 

Bayelsa State:

But for the Supreme Court ruling that nullified the election of Dr. Diri of the APC as the Governor of the State, APC would have been in firm control of the tiny Oil rich State now. But still expect APC to do extremely well in the coming elections.

The three Senatorial seats and six House of Representatives seats will be for APC to loose.

Tinubu will dominate the State with Atiku getting the much needed twenty-five per cent.

Bayelsa State: APC

 

South East:

If the admonition of a former Governor of Anambra State, Dr. Chris Ngige is to be read in tandem with that of the current Governor of the State, Dr. Charles Soludo, the South Easterners will be more circumspect in their choice of who to vote for come Saturday. Peter Obi is the only prominent candidate from the South East zone and he is expected to benefit from  the people’s long agitation for the presidency. He may enjoy some block voting, but be rest assured that both Ebonyi and Imo states may spring some surprises, while Enugu States looks undecided.  Abia State may go the way of PDP, leaving only Anambra and maybe Enugu for Obi and his LP to roam freely.

Aside the much publicised treatise by Soludo urging Obi to reconsider his presidential bid now to allow a better opportune time for the East, Chris Ngige has this to say: “I have carefully studied and re-studied the agenda of the Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi ahead of the 2023 election and found nothing other than a mere packaged deceitful strategy to deceive Nigerians.

“We are talking about political structures here and Labour Party are out there spreading lies upon lies against the ruling of President Muhammadu Buhari who happens to be the best President Nigeria has ever produced. 

“A vote for Peter Obi based on the Nigerian political calculation is just a waste of votes and time and will definitely amount to nothing. The earlier our people realize that Peter Obi’s agenda represents everything fraud and deceit, the better for them all. 

 

Anambra State:

Whatever another former Governor of the State Chris Ngige might say is immaterial here. The LP will certainly do well in Anambra State. This is the LP candidate, Peter Obi’s home State. He was a Governor here for eight years, between 2007 and 2015. But interestingly, neither his successor, Willie Obiano nor his hordes of aides who worked with him while he was the Governor had come out to offer a snipe of his administrative savvy while in charge of the affairs of the State. To further compound his electoral woes in the State, the incumbent Governor, Charles Soludo of PDP, did released a damning expose on his presidential bid late last year. The ripples generated by the expose are yet to totally pale out.  

But all the same, LP will secure at least two of the Senatorial seats in the State and may corner the majority of the eleven House of Representatives seats. Expect Obi to win a majority votes in the State, while Atiku and Tinubu may struggle to secure the mandatory twenty-five per cent votes in the State.

Obi may deny other candidates the much needed twenty-five per cent of the votes in the presidential election here.

Anambra State: LP

 

Enugu State:

Enugu is another State that shared the same political philosophy with Anambra State. The cries of the Igbo marginalisation is loudest here.

Of the three Senatorial seats, expect LP to corner at least two, while PDP will slug it out with APC for the third seat. However, the PDP candidate, Dr. Ken Nnamani had endorsed Tinubu of the APC for the presidential election. The eight House of Representatives seats will be shared by the three parties.

Obi may also deny other candidates the much needed twenty-five per cent of the votes in the presidential election here.

Enugu State LP

 

Imo State:

Imo is alongside Ebonyi are the most complicated States in the South East zone. With a very strong APC presence and the Governors of the two States belonging to APC, both LP and PDP may find it hard in those States.

Both the Eastern solidarity may give the slight edge to Peter Obi of LP. It is PDP’s Atiku that will suffer untold humiliation in those two States.

The three Senatorial seats and the ten House of Representatives seats of the National Assembly seats will be shared between APC and LP and PDP.

Obi may also deny other candidates the much needed twenty-five per cent of the votes in the presidential election here.

 

Imo State: LP

 

Ebonyi State:

Ebonyi State will suffer the same fate with Imo. The State Governor Ugwuanyi is an APC campaigner and with the massive infrastructural impact of the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration in the State, APC may not have much problem securing the much needed twenty-five per cent of the total votes cast. Also the National Assembly seats will be hotly contested for by both the LP and APC.

Obi may not be able to deny Tinubu the much needed twenty-five per cent of the votes in the presidential election here.

Ebonyi State: Too close to call

 

Abia State:

Despite his membership of the G-5 Governors led by the Rivers State Governor, Governor Ikpeazu of Abia State cannot afford to rock the boat of his party, PDP, because of his second term bid. Locally he has the likes of moneybags like former Governor Uzor Kanu to deal with, so he has to thread more carefully. 

The three Senatorial seats and the eight House of Representatives seats of the National Assembly seats will be shared between APC and LP and PDP.

Obi may fail to deny other candidates the much needed twenty-five per cent of the votes in the presidential election here.

Abia State: Too close to call

 

South West:

Yoruba land may be turned into an electoral battle ground on Saturday. This is the most politically exposed and enlightened zone in the country.  and all the major candidates have a good footholds in the zone. The Obi-dients movement is more pronounced in Lagos area than in the core eastern zone. Also, because of the preponderance of media houses and the exposure to better news in the zone, voters are more likely to be discernible than in other less enlightened and exposed zones.

Traditionally, the zone have been known to vote enblock. And they are known to choose intelligently, based on rapports with contestants. These will definitely worked in favour of Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC and Atiku Abubakar of PDP. Peter Obi is only known in Lagos area. 

Another strong point  in Tinubu’s favour is his adoption by both the South West Leaders of Thought led by Bishop Ayo Ladigbolu and the Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE). While a faction of the Committee of Afenifere led by Pa Ayo Adebanjo endorsed Peter Obi of LP, another faction led by Pa Rueben Fasoranti has also endorsed Tinubu. 

www.focusmagazineonline.com findings in mainland States of Ekiti, Ondo and Osun were shocking. Even in Oyo, it is a straight showdown between Atiku and Tinubu. Peter Obi is not on ground at all. He was not even known in a lot of areas visited by our correspondents. 

The zone by our findings is clearly a battleground between Tinubu and Atiku, with Obi making an unsurprising strong showing in Lagos State. 

Despite the vile and bitter campaigns of the PDP in these States,  at the end of the voting exercise, the APC presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu and majority of its Senatorial and House of Representatives candidates, will comfortably emerged ahead of others. 

 

Lagos State:

Since the inception of the Fourth Republic, this Sate has been glued with the APC and its tendencies AD, AC, ACN and have been winning comfortably. The State can easily be referred to as the base of the APC politics.

APC is expected to cleared all the three Senate seats on offer in this Sate plus all the twenty-four House of Representatives seats. The party inn the State is firmly rooted in traditional, cultural and social  institutions of the people of the State. The various voting structures are all rooting for the ‘City Boy’, the presidential candidate of the APC. Surprisingly, many bitter critics of Tinubu have aligned with his presidential aspiration. Chief Bode George being one of them.

Also the firm performance of the Governors of the State from Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), Mr. Akinwumi Ambode and the present Jide Sanwo-Olu is giving the party an edge. Few local government areas that usually give APC headaches in the past have now split between Obi of LP and Atiku of PDP. This will definitely gave APC an edge.

Neither PDP nor LP or the NNPP have anything to campaign with in the State, except the nebulous reference to Tinubu and his properties. Besides, none of them have any structure that can with stand APC in the State.

The  7,155,920 registered voters in the State is the highest in the country and the majority are rooting for their former Governor, the ‘City Boy’, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The three Senatorial seats and twenty-four House of Representatives seats are for APC to loose. 

Obi may get the necessary twenty-five per cent here because of the huge population of Igbos, and some dissidents youths, but it is going to be APC all the way

Lagos State: APC

 

Ogun State:

This is the State of the former President of the Federal Republic of Nigeri, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. He has endorsed Peter Obi of Labour Party. www.focusmagazineonline.com can recalled that he vainly endorsed his former vice president, Atiku Abubakar in the run to the 2019’s presidential election. Atiku lost woefully to Muhammadu Buhari in that election. The Sate also parades the sitting vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo (SAN). Pastor Osinbajo was in the State all week leading to the election to mobilize support for his party’s candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Also the siting Governor is from the party.

Despite the crisis between the former Governor of the Sate, Senator Ibikunle Amosun and the incumbent Governor, the party still looks good to secure victory in the State.

Neither PDP nor LP have any known strong backer in the State. Since the death of Senator Buruji Kashamu, PDP in the State has become rudderless and directionless. 

It won’t be any surprising should APC picks all the three senate seats , the nine House of Representatives seats and corner the majority votes in the presidential election.

None of LP and PDP may get the twenty-five per cent here.

Ogun State APC

 

Ondo State:

another conservative progressive state in the South West is Ondo State. The state fell into the hands of the hands of the PDP in 2003, and by 2007, the progressives had reclaimed it through Segun Mimiko of the then Labour Party in alliance with the Action Congress. 

2023 general elections offer a fresh opportunity for all the parties to test their electoral might in the State. Incumbent Governor Rotimi Akeredolu will be leading his team out for a repeat of the 2019 victory in the State. Expect APC to secure a clean sweep her with the three Senators on offer in the bag and all the nine House of Representatives seats.

Expect a massive landslide victory for Tinubu here. No twenty-five per cent for Obi and Atiku.

Ondo State APC 

 

Oyo State:

Oyo State traditional is dicey politically. The State has a way of swinging it votes unexpectedly. Now that influential paramount ruler, Oba Lamidi Atanda Adeyemi, Alaafin of Oyo is late, expect other factors to decide where the pendulum of voters swing.

Ibadan naturally, where the highest numbers of the electorates come from will pull its weight. But expect Oke Ogun area and Oyo town in particular to have a say. The Governor of the State, Syi Makinde is having issues with his PDP family, while the APC is also embroiled in its own crisis. The crisis between Bayo Adelabu of Accord Party (AP) and Teslim Folarin of APC notwithstanding, the APC candidates are expected to coast home to victory easily.

The three Senatorial seats will be contested for by both the PDP and APC while the fourteen House of Representatives seats will be shared among the two.

Atiku will make the twenty-five percent here, but Obi has no base, so no hope here. Tinubu all the way

Oyo State APC.

 

Osun State:

The judgement of the Osun State Governorship Election Tribunal of January 27 effectively took the sail out of the ship of the PDP in the State. The leaders became dispirited and depressed. The embattled Governor, Ademola Adeleke  has been lustreless and rancorous since assuming office in November 27, 2022. The looks to align with the other States in the zone for the presidential election.

With the rumoured Tinubu’s ancestral roots in the State, despite the most virulent campaign against him in some parts  of the State, he looks good for the big pie. APC will surerly win two of the three Senatorial seats, leaving the Ife/Ijesa zone as the battle field. Neither the incumbent Senator, Fadahunsi and the challenger, Famurewa are doing well in the field.  A House of Representatives candidate for the Ijesa North Federal Constituency, Seun Odofin is wonderfully flying the flag of APC in the zone. If APC wins fabulously, it will be due to his hard work and acceptability.

Of the twenty-four House of Representatives seats in the State, APC looks good to bag some twenty odd seats, while the party will remain very competitive in the remaining four areas. Expect Tinubu to coast to a landslide win in his ancestral State.

APC targets should be a clean sweep of the nine House of Representatives seats. Even Ede Federal Constituency should be within the reach. Obokun/Oriade is almost in the bag. The three Senatorial seats are winnable too.

While PDP because of his wife, Titi Abubakar may make the twenty-five per cent, Obi will return an abysmal votes in the coming election.

Osun State APC

 

Ekiti State:

Ahmed Bola Tinubu while campaigning for the governoship election is Oshogbo, Osun State last July was quoted as saying: ‘May we not labour in vain’. This prayer will be more apt in Ekiti State for all the other parties in the coming general elections. PDP that was known to be very strong in the State because of the presence of the former Governor, Ayo Fayose, is in comatose, while LP is hardly visible in the State. Fayose today has endorsed the presidential aspiration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Both Atiku and Obi have nothing to hold on to here. This thus leaves the State loose for APC to harvest bountiful votes across all the elections. 

Expect APC to corner all the National Assembly seats and a huge landslide in the presidential election. 

Tinubu to deny all other contestants the necessary twenty-five per cent here

Ekiti State APC

 

Federal Capital Territory0 (FCT), Abuja

The Federal Capital Territory is traditionally a PDP’s strongholds, but with the emergence of Peter Obi in LP, the strong Igbo voting population is expected to shift their allegiance to the LP. PDP is sure the looser here. While APC still retains its core supporters, PDP have lost its own to the LP.

The Senate seat and two House of Representatives seats are up for grabs. Anything may happen here.

FCT: Too close to call

 

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