News

Economy: Top economist predicts ‘whopper’ of a recession in 2023

Published

2 years ago

September 1, 2022

There is a broad consensus among many of the world’s top economists and market watchers that a recession is on the horizon, with many believing inflation will be difficult to tame and force the Fed to take drastic action.

According to a recent Bank of America survey of asset managers, recession expectations among investors have reached an all-time high.

Americans and perhaps by extension the rest of the World, are worried a recession is looming—and according to a top economist, they ought to be.

Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, said this week that he believes the U.S. is heading for a “whopper” of a recession next year, which may have adverse effects in the economies of several other countries.

Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, said this week that he believes the U.S. is heading for a “whopper” of a recession next year.

In an interview with CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday, Hanke argued that a major economic downturn had been made inevitable due to U.S. money supply soaring and stagnating.

“We will have a recession because we’ve had five months of zero M2 growth, money supply growth, and the Fed isn’t even looking at it,” he said. “We’re going to have one whopper of a recession in 2023.”

M2 is a measure of U.S. money supply, which includes cash, checking and savings deposits, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. Since the beginning of the year, the M2 reading has plateaued, but the supply of money in the U.S. surged throughout the pandemic, according to official data.

Hanke said on Monday that throughout world history, there had never been sustained inflation—inflation above 4% for more than two years—that had not been caused by excessive growth in the supply of money.

“We had [that M2 growth] starting with COVID in February of 2020,” he told CNBC. “We had an unprecedented growth in the money supply in the United States, and that is why we are having inflation now—and that’s why, by the way, we will continue to have inflation through 2023 going into probably 2024.”

Last year, Hanke’s research predicted that U.S. inflation would be somewhere between 6% and 9% in 2022.

U.S. inflation cooled in July, but still remained elevated with the Consumer Price Index increasing 8.5% from a year earlier.

“We hit the bull’s-eye with that model,” Hanke said Monday, referring to his inflation simulations. “Now the model is running at between 6% and 8% for the end of this year on a year-over-year basis, and 5% at the end of 2023 going into 2024.”

The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation at around 2%, and has been trying to reduce inflation this year without triggering a recession.

However, Powell himself warned last week that American households and businesses should brace for “some pain” as the central bank’s efforts to bring inflation under control were “likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth.”

Recession predictions

According to a recent Bank of America survey of asset managers, recession expectations among investors have reached an all-time high.

Consumers are also nervous, with polling showing that 70% of Americans are worried about an imminent recession.

Earlier this month, top economist Mohamed El-Erian warned that inflation “will be sticky” and despite recent signs that price growth may be slowing, high inflation could become “entrenched.”

The veteran economist argued in recent weeks that while the U.S. is “simply not in a recession” right now, the risk of a recession was high—and “getting higher and higher.”

Michael Spence, Nobel laureate and dean emeritus at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, told Bloomberg this month that while recession fears were receding, he did not believe they were over.

“There are still people who are worried that inflation will be persistent enough to force the Fed to really clamp down,” he said in an interview. “There’s still a non-trivial possibility that we’ll have a recession or a dramatic slowdown.”

Meanwhile, renowned economist Stephen Roach told CNBC this week that the U.S. needed a “miracle” to evade a recession, and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said recently that he saw only a 10% chance of an economic slowdown that did not lead to a recession.

However, others are less gloomy about the outlook for the U.S. economy.

“Little of the data I see tells me the U.S. is on the cusp of a recession,” Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said in the company’s earnings call last month.

Diana Furchtgott-Roth, George Washington University adjunct economics professor and former chief economist at the Department of Labor, told PBSon Monday that she had a positive long-term outlook.

“I am optimistic that the economy is going to get better in the future and that we are going to have a mild recession, which is going to get inflation out of the economy, and then the economy is going to continue to increase,” she said.

www.focusmagazinesoline.com with agency reports

News

A Great Nigeria is Possible, Bola Tinubu Assures Nigerians

Published

8 months ago

November 1, 2023

FocusMag

ADDRESS BY PRESIDENT BOLA TINUBU AT THE 2023 CABINET RETREAT FOR MINISTERS, PRESIDENTIAL AIDES, PERMANENT SECRETARIES AND TOP GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONARIES AT THE STATE HOUSE CONFERENCE CENTRE, ABUJA ON WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2023

It is a great morning in Nigeria and I am humbled and happy to stand before you on this retreat, with forward-looking determination to embark on a very strong, bold endeavour to rebuild our country’s economy and our people’s hope renewed.
2. Thank you very much for your attendance. With strong determination, we are brought together the best brains, the best hands to navigate the future of this country.

3. We are not looking backwards; we can’t compare and give excuses. This is our country we have to build it; we have to renew the foundation. We have to give hope to the populace, to Nigerians in doubt whether democracy and economic growth will be the pathway to their prosperity.

4. I’m here to assure you and walk with you the best brains we can put together in civil service, the brain that we can put together in our democratic parliament and have been chosen for us by the public.

5. It is a good thing that the chairman of our party is here but the President is the president of all, whether affiliated with some political parties, regardless of religious, ethnic or otherwise, we are one.

6. A great Nigeria is possible, and a greater Nigeria will come under your commitment, guidance, and resolute determination to give the country a direction.

7. I’m with you. And please be assured that this great country is one family in one house, geographically located, partitioned, and living in different rooms. But we are all one family.

8. And we are here to make allegiance and give direction to that one family, making sure that relationships can only be stronger if we give hope to our people. We can only achieve our mission with boldness and strong determination with collaboration.

9. As I’ve stated before, no one succeeds alone. You the civil service, you must not see a minister as he or she will come and go and you will be there. You must make a positive team for the good of this country.

10. Yes! I admit and accept the asset and liability of my predecessor. It’s part of the definition in my professional background.

11. But you are in this ship. You will make good of it but not wreck it. You are a member of a great family; don’t see that minister as opportunistic. See, he or she as a partner that we must take the ship forward. Navigate it through turbulence and clear weather.

12. We are lucky we have a nation; the challenges are all over the world. You can see the chaos all around you. But be focused, like a man driving in the tunnel, don’t see the sky, don’t look up, face your direction. Be committed to the value and principle of results that will affect you, your neighbour, and the entire nation.

13. We’ve spent the last six months reviewing and evaluating ourselves, we’ve come a long way, but we set the agenda. Healthcare is a priority. Education of our people is a must. There is no other weapon against poverty than education. You have the opportunity to change things.

14. Recently, three days ago, we received the Chancellor of the Republic of Germany and his delegation of investors. One of their key complaints and the question is whether they can bring their capital, repatriate their dividend, or, if not satisfied, take their capital away. The Minister of Trade and Investment was called upon by me to explain further, that those obstacles are gone, never to come back again. We are open for business.

15. That is why we established the Result Delivery Unit. At the end of this retreat, you’re going to sign a bond of understanding between you, the ministers, the permanent secretaries, and myself.

16. If you are performing, nothing to fear; if you miss the objective, we’ll review; if there is no performance, you leave us. No one is an island, and the buck stops on my desk.

17. I assure you, you have a free hand. You must be intellectually inquisitive to ask how, why, when, and why it must be immediate. You have the responsibility to serve the people.

18. I’ve taken a young lady very dynamic, Hadiza Balla Usman, to head that delivery unit. If you have any complaints about her, see me. If you’re ready to work with her, stay there. Delivery, yes! we must achieve it for the sake of millions of people.

19. Yes, we are talking about the population of this country. What do you do with it? Make it an asset or a liability? Focus on its progress and come up with bold endeavours. We are great talents around the world, the biggest intellectually sound country in Horn of Africa.

20. Yes, we have challenges in the Sahel, we have challenges of climate change, south and north of Nigeria is battered, with ocean surge, we have desert encroachment in the north, but we are still blessed with arable lands. We can do it; we can build our country.

21. It’s not about theorizing. It’s about practical determination and focused evaluation. Yes, it is our country. We have no other one. Let’s be proud that we are Nigerians. We can do it, we can show leadership, we can fight to make democracy a lasting reference for the rest of Africa.

22. Don’t be afraid to make decisions, but don’t be antagonistic of your supervisor. If they are wrong, debate it. I stand before you and I’ve claimed on several occasions and I’m saying today again as the president, I can make mistakes, point it to me I would resolve that conflict, that error, perfection is only that of God Almighty. But you are there to help me succeed. Success I must achieve by all means necessary.

23. We have great minds, great intellectuals, great intellects, and all that we need.

24. When we were discussing this retreat, I said other than members of diplomatic corps to give us goodwill and inspiration, don’t invite any foreigner to give me a lecture about governance. I’ve been through it, and I believe in Nigeria.

25. It started from the day I was sworn in, and that bold endeavour is only achieved through courage, determination, and focused leadership.

26. We are going through the reform, painfully, and we still have other challenges. Don’t be a clog in the wheel of Nigeria’s progress.

27. Let us look forward. Let us be determined that corruption will go, progress will be achieved, better wages for our workers, and living wages.

28. We will transform the economy to work for millions of our citizens. We must take 50 million people out of poverty. We must build healthcare that works for all. Look around. Don’t be wicked. Look at the standard of education, look at the classrooms, and look at the roads. We can only spend the money, we will find it, we can not spend the people.

29. No crime in borrowing. Thank you, World Bank, for being a lending friend. But let your achievement be homegrown. The determination that Nigeria can do it is here.

30. If it had not started six months ago, we are here to switch off the light, make you included, and make all Nigerians included. Our path for tomorrow is charted for our children and grandchildren. Don’t be selfish about it.

31. Poverty is not a shameful thing. It’s only unacceptable. And we have to banish it because it’s unacceptable. Let’s work on other identifiable areas.

32. Because a memo is submitted to you doesn’t mean that is the end of that matter. Think through it. Be inquisitive. Ask how, when, why.

33. I’m ready to enjoy the retreat going forward. We are not retreating from progress. We are just to talk to one another and chart a path for progress and prosperity of this nation. I’m honoured to declare this brainstorming session open. Thank you.

News

Anxiety in Ondo, As Group Launches Operation Ja Ara E Gba To Rescue Aketi

Published

8 months ago

October 26, 2023

Afolayan Adebiyi

Akure, Ondo State capital will witnessed a huge movement of operation ‘Ja Ara E Gba’, by a group intent to rescued the ailing Governor of the State, Arakunrin Oluwarotimi Aketi from ‘a cabal holding him down, thus preventing him from seeking proper medical attention’.

The group had finalised all plans to storm Akure tomorrow, (Friday, 27 October, 2023) with the operation ‘Ja Ara E Gba’, either using the State Nigerian Union of Journalists (NUJ) Press centre, or another auditorium that can contained a huge crowd expected from all the eighteen local government areas of the State.

The theme of the movement is “Ja Ara E Gba”
According to a close source to the group, ‘a group of friends have locked Aketi down. He needed to be rescued from the grips of this cabal, he stated.

The group called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Dr Umar Granduje, the national chairman of the All progressives Congress (APC) to use their good offices to help ‘us get him out of claws of these cabals, so that he can go for proper treatment’.
The group appreciated the national chairman for his reconciliatory efforts between the State House of assembly and the Deputy Governor that has put the impeachment threat in the cooler.

They also urged the Ondo State people not to give up on the ailing governor. They pleaded that they should continue praying for him.

A close source to the organisers of the movement told www.focusmagazineonline.com that ‘there is no denying the fact that Aketi is ill, sick and cannot perform his statutory duties as the Executive Governor of Ondo State’.

According to the source, who pleaded anonymity, ‘the Aketi we know cannot stay for a week without talking. They should free this man and let him go for treatment’, he said.

He explained that this is not a protest really. We shall gathered at the Press Centre, use our materials, read out our prepared press statement. We shall come with all these placards.
While insisting that the governor, Aketi is sick. And that he is helpless, he believed that some people have hijacked him. The president should intervene and get this man to go for treatment.

The source revealed that while some of his friends were saying he might need some twelve months to complete his treatment and all that, but we believe they should let him go, even if for only eight months.

Therefore, he told www.focusmagazineonline.com that as from tomorrow, it is now operation Ja ara e gba that will rule Ondo state.

‘We shall all come wearing the vest and face cap with the inscription, Ja ara e gba’, he said.

Crime

Drambi Vandi, Killer Cop of Lagos Lawyer on Christmas Day, to Die Hanging

Published

9 months ago

October 9, 2023

FocusMag

For Drambi Vandi, the trigger happy police officer who shot and killed a Lagos lawyer, Bolanle Raheem on Christmas day 2022, the long hand of justice ran its full circle early Monday, (09 October) as Justice Ibironke Harrison, sitting in Lagos Division of the Lagos State High Court, pronounced a death sentence on him. He is to die by hanging.

Vandi, since suspended from duty in wake of the reckless shooting and killing of the young mother if two, by the Police authorities, has been facing a one-count charge of murder at the Lagos State High Court since January 2023.

The judge, Ibironke Harrison on Monday found the disgraced police officer guilty of murder and thus sentenced him accordingly.
“The court found the defendant guilty on one count of murder. You will be hanged by the neck till you are dead,” Harrison said.
On 25 December 2022, Mrs Raheem was said to be coming from the Church with other members of her family when they encountered the police check-point under the Ajah roundabout, in Lekki axis of the Lagos State.

Vandi allegedly fired a blinded shot into the car conveying the deceased which hit her and resulted in the death of Mrs Raheem, who was said to be carrying a five months pregnancy at the time.
The police officer was attached to the Ajiwe police division in the Ajah area of the state.
The news shocked the whole nation and instantly, both the police authorities and the Lagos State government swung into action. While the Lagos State Police Command immediately suspended him from its service, the State swiftly filed a murder charge against him at the State High Court.

The Lagos State Director of Public Prosecution (DPP) had presented a one-count charge of murder of the young lady against the defendant and subsequently arraigned him.
The court opened the trial in the case in January, with the deceased’s husband, sister, police armourer, pathologist and seven others testifying against the defendant.
The prosecution also tendered 27 exhibits to supports its case.
The defendant, Vandi did not called any witness. He was the only witness who testified in his own defence.
In his testimony before the court, Vandi told the judge that the bullet presented in court which was said to have killed Mrs Raheem did not come from the rifle he carried on the day of the incident.

He also claimed that he had never seen the bullet until it was tendered in court.